His prediction would carry a lot more weight if he had written about it prior to the recession. A lot of people can say "I predicted that" after it happened, b

His prediction would carry a lot more weight if he had written about it prior to the recession. A lot of people can say "I predicted that" after it happened, but those who have proof they can point to have a lot more credibility. All he has is that he "won a bet" after a "conversation with a friend." Unless he was wrote about it ahead of time, we have no way of knowing whether he also made a similar bet with another friend in a different conversation to say that housing prices were going to continue towards the moon. If he had also structured the bet in which he got his school payed for and seemingly no downside if he lost, then he could have guaranteed free school, and looked like Nostradamus either way. So it's quite possible that this is selection bias at work, and he "flips coins" on a regular basis and only brags about the ones that come up heads.