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Yeah, we hear this every 1Q's. Apple's sales peak during the release quarter and steadily declines over the next three quarters, until the new one comes out ne

Yeah, we hear this every 1Q's. Apple's sales peak during the release quarter and steadily declines over the next three quarters, until the new one comes out next year. I think this natural decline has been misinterpreted by reporters who really don't know any better and misreported as "declining demand."

leoc 9y ago
Apparently https://www.cnet.com/news/samsung-reduces-oled-panel-production-citing-poor-iphone-x-sales/ https://www.cnet.com/news/samsung-reduces-oled-panel-product... (warning: autoplaying video with audio :( ): > Samsung Display, Samsung's panel-making division, is reducing OLED panel production at its South Chungcheong plant, according to the Nikkei Asian Review, thanks to lower than expected iPhone X sales. > The report states Samsung now plans to cover 20 million or fewer iPhone X devices for the quarter ending in March, a large decrease from the expected 45 to 50 million units. (I certainly can't confirm the reporting.)
- oflannabhra 9y ago
  Nikkei doesn't even support their own headline. Samsung Display saw YoY decreases in OLED purchases by themselves, increased competition from Chinese and Taiwanese display suppliers, and essentially zero adoption of OLED by Chinese phone manufacturers[0] (also linked above). All those factors get fewer headlines than Apple doom and gloom, though. [0] - http://www.patentlyapple.com/patently-apple/2018/02/apples-iphone-x-is-the-instant-scapegoat-for-samsungs-failure-to-win-oled-orders-from-chinese-vendors.html http://www.patentlyapple.com/patently-apple/2018/02/apples-i...
  - tooltalk 9y ago
    First, I wouldn't take anything out of patentlyapple.com seriously. Second, what Chinese and Taiwanese display suppliers are you talking about? There is no "other" OLED manufacturer who pumps out displays in Samsung's quality or quantity.
    - oflannabhra 9y ago
      From the original Nikkei report [0]: > Other smartphone makers, who Samsung had hoped would incorporate OLED panels, have been slow to make the transition due to their expense and are sticking to liquid crystal displays. To make matters worse, Chinese OLED panel makers are expanding production capacity, heating up the price competition even more. >Display Supply Chain Consultants of the U.S. estimates the utilization rate at Samsung's OLED panel factories is around 50-60% due to sluggish demand from smartphone makers... [OLED] Supply capacity is expected to grow worldwide. LG Display of South Korea is set to launch a new production line as early as this year, and China's BOE Technology Group and Tianma Microelectronics have launched new factories with the assistance of government subsidies. Overall production capacity is expected to double by 2020...The bar in global competition will likely rise further for Sharp and Japan Display, which are preparing to start mass-producing OLED panels in 2018 or 2019. The PatentlyApple article just points out that Nikkei attached Apple to the headline for clicks, when the real OLED supply issue has little to do with them, and more to do with Samsungs own poor forecasting. [0] - https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Trends/OLED-panel-glut-looms-as-Apple-slashes-iPhone-X-production https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Trends/OLED-panel-glut-loom...
- Someone 9y ago
  https://www.statista.com/statistics/263401/global-apple-iphone-sales-since-3rd-quarter-2007/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/263401/global-apple-ipho... claims Apple sold 50.76 million iPhones in the equivalent quarter a year ago. If that is correct, expecting them to sell 45 to 50 million iPhone X’es this quarter, to me, seems a tad optimistic. Similarly, https://www.statista.com/statistics/276306/global-apple-iphone-sales-since-fiscal-year-2007/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/276306/global-apple-ipho... claims Apple sold 216 million iPhones in total in 2017, but https://www.androidauthority.com/apple-samsung-iphone-x-oled-display-824718/ https://www.androidauthority.com/apple-samsung-iphone-x-oled... claims ”Samsung shipped Apple 50 million OLED displays for the iPhone X in 2017. That number looks to quadruple to 180-200 million in 2018.” Who is pulling numbers out of thin air, statista.com or Samsung?
  - cosmie 9y ago
    > Who is pulling numbers out of thin air, statista.com or Samsung? These numbers don't necessarily contradict each other. Since the X is the first OLED iPhone, and the X wasn't realeased until November, those "50 million OLED displays in 2017" were only for enough production to cover 2 months of sales. Projecting 180-200mm units in 2018 isn't unreasonable, based on that initial demand. It looks like from the parents CNET article that they may have trimmed that outlook since then, potentially based on a stronger tapering of demand than they expected. But the original number isn't quite in the realm of thin air and lived comfortably in the land of the mildly optimistic (if improbable).
    - Someone 9y ago
      Two months with pent-up demand (Apple announced the iPhone X on September 12, and ‘everybody’ knew a new phone was going to be announced at least two weeks before) in the quarter were Apple typically sells a third of its yearly number of phones. If you assume the other three quarter each do 22% of sales, that 50 million already goes down to 34 million. Anything more, for me, would be a big surprise. But chances are this is more to blame on reporters hunting for attention than on Samsung. Samsung may just have said they would sell fewer displays than the 50 million of last quarter.
- djrogers 9y ago
  You can't confirm the reporting because it's ridiculous. Apple will likely only sell about 50-52M iPhones in q2 in total, so it'd take a very ignorant reporter to claim anyone expected nearly all of those to be iPhone Xs.

leoc 9y ago

Apparently https://www.cnet.com/news/samsung-reduces-oled-panel-production-citing-poor-iphone-x-sales/ https://www.cnet.com/news/samsung-reduces-oled-panel-product... (warning: autoplaying video with audio :( ): > Samsung Display, Samsung's panel-making division, is reducing OLED panel production at its South Chungcheong plant, according to the Nikkei Asian Review, thanks to lower than expected iPhone X sales. > The report states Samsung now plans to cover 20 million or fewer iPhone X devices for the quarter ending in March, a large decrease from the expected 45 to 50 million units. (I certainly can't confirm the reporting.)

oflannabhra 9y ago
Nikkei doesn't even support their own headline. Samsung Display saw YoY decreases in OLED purchases by themselves, increased competition from Chinese and Taiwanese display suppliers, and essentially zero adoption of OLED by Chinese phone manufacturers[0] (also linked above). All those factors get fewer headlines than Apple doom and gloom, though. [0] - http://www.patentlyapple.com/patently-apple/2018/02/apples-iphone-x-is-the-instant-scapegoat-for-samsungs-failure-to-win-oled-orders-from-chinese-vendors.html http://www.patentlyapple.com/patently-apple/2018/02/apples-i...
- tooltalk 9y ago
  First, I wouldn't take anything out of patentlyapple.com seriously. Second, what Chinese and Taiwanese display suppliers are you talking about? There is no "other" OLED manufacturer who pumps out displays in Samsung's quality or quantity.
  - oflannabhra 9y ago
    From the original Nikkei report [0]: > Other smartphone makers, who Samsung had hoped would incorporate OLED panels, have been slow to make the transition due to their expense and are sticking to liquid crystal displays. To make matters worse, Chinese OLED panel makers are expanding production capacity, heating up the price competition even more. >Display Supply Chain Consultants of the U.S. estimates the utilization rate at Samsung's OLED panel factories is around 50-60% due to sluggish demand from smartphone makers... [OLED] Supply capacity is expected to grow worldwide. LG Display of South Korea is set to launch a new production line as early as this year, and China's BOE Technology Group and Tianma Microelectronics have launched new factories with the assistance of government subsidies. Overall production capacity is expected to double by 2020...The bar in global competition will likely rise further for Sharp and Japan Display, which are preparing to start mass-producing OLED panels in 2018 or 2019. The PatentlyApple article just points out that Nikkei attached Apple to the headline for clicks, when the real OLED supply issue has little to do with them, and more to do with Samsungs own poor forecasting. [0] - https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Trends/OLED-panel-glut-looms-as-Apple-slashes-iPhone-X-production https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Trends/OLED-panel-glut-loom...
Someone 9y ago
https://www.statista.com/statistics/263401/global-apple-iphone-sales-since-3rd-quarter-2007/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/263401/global-apple-ipho... claims Apple sold 50.76 million iPhones in the equivalent quarter a year ago. If that is correct, expecting them to sell 45 to 50 million iPhone X’es this quarter, to me, seems a tad optimistic. Similarly, https://www.statista.com/statistics/276306/global-apple-iphone-sales-since-fiscal-year-2007/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/276306/global-apple-ipho... claims Apple sold 216 million iPhones in total in 2017, but https://www.androidauthority.com/apple-samsung-iphone-x-oled-display-824718/ https://www.androidauthority.com/apple-samsung-iphone-x-oled... claims ”Samsung shipped Apple 50 million OLED displays for the iPhone X in 2017. That number looks to quadruple to 180-200 million in 2018.” Who is pulling numbers out of thin air, statista.com or Samsung?
- cosmie 9y ago
  > Who is pulling numbers out of thin air, statista.com or Samsung? These numbers don't necessarily contradict each other. Since the X is the first OLED iPhone, and the X wasn't realeased until November, those "50 million OLED displays in 2017" were only for enough production to cover 2 months of sales. Projecting 180-200mm units in 2018 isn't unreasonable, based on that initial demand. It looks like from the parents CNET article that they may have trimmed that outlook since then, potentially based on a stronger tapering of demand than they expected. But the original number isn't quite in the realm of thin air and lived comfortably in the land of the mildly optimistic (if improbable).
  - Someone 9y ago
    Two months with pent-up demand (Apple announced the iPhone X on September 12, and ‘everybody’ knew a new phone was going to be announced at least two weeks before) in the quarter were Apple typically sells a third of its yearly number of phones. If you assume the other three quarter each do 22% of sales, that 50 million already goes down to 34 million. Anything more, for me, would be a big surprise. But chances are this is more to blame on reporters hunting for attention than on Samsung. Samsung may just have said they would sell fewer displays than the 50 million of last quarter.
djrogers 9y ago
You can't confirm the reporting because it's ridiculous. Apple will likely only sell about 50-52M iPhones in q2 in total, so it'd take a very ignorant reporter to claim anyone expected nearly all of those to be iPhone Xs.