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Analysts always make these wildly stupid predictions and then throw a fit when Apple magically doesn't meet them. It's absurd. Meanwhile other companies like U

Analysts always make these wildly stupid predictions and then throw a fit when Apple magically doesn't meet them. It's absurd. Meanwhile other companies like Uber lose "only" a billion dollars and the analysts are losing their minds.

dep_b 9y ago
It's kind of weird that gaining marketshare in a shrinking market while increasing revenue per sold phone would be a bad thing just because some analist thought it would even sell better.
- astrodust 9y ago
  Apple has always had a strange relationship with analysts, but post Jobs they started to generate increasingly insane projections. Part of the blame here is on Apple, they run an unusually secretive operation, where other companies would give a lot more in the way of guidance to help keep expectations more realistic.
  - allwein 9y ago
    They don't provide guidance on product mix, but they do provide guidance on expected revenue and margin. For Q1 2018 they projected between $84-$87 billion and came in at $88.3 billion. Apple has been historically accurate in nailing their projections, yet when analysts calculate the expected product mix, they either forget the mix and assume Apple is going to sell $80 billion in only iPhones, or they include the mix, which must mean they expect Apple to sell $120 billion worth of stuff.
- oflannabhra 9y ago
  Yep, exactly. The lack of cognitive dissonance by the tech and finance press that covers Apple astounds me.
- ac29 9y ago
  >gaining marketshare Where is Apple gaining market share? As near as I can tell by available data [0], their market share has been pretty flat for the past decade. Apple's revenue share may be increasing as low and mid tier Android devices continue to improve and proliferate, though. https://www.statista.com/statistics/216459/global-market-share-of-apple-iphone/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/216459/global-market-sha...
- nihonde 9y ago
  It’s just a way to try to manipulate the stock price. They feed this blatantly false story every year, then buy on the dip and arbitrage when Tim Cook inevitably proves them wrong. It’s very transparent if you follow AAPL over a long time. WSJ and Nikkei are the chief offenders every year.
longerthoughts 9y ago
I would love to see somebody hold analysts accountable for their projections by keeping a record of accuracy.
- reaperducer 9y ago
  One of the Apple news sites used to do this. Every once in a while (quarter, maybe?) it would publish a list of predictions from a handful of analysts and compare their predictions to reality. I haven't seen it in a while, so I suspect it was MacNN (RIP).
  - astrodust 9y ago
    John Gruber (Daring Fireball) would occasionally collect "claim chowder" and later call them out on their bullshit.
  - oflannabhra 9y ago
    Philip Elmer-Dewitt does this. Here [0] is his most recent report card for 4Q18. [0] - https://www.ped30.com/2018/02/02/best-worst-apple-analysts-q1-2018-edition/ https://www.ped30.com/2018/02/02/best-worst-apple-analysts-q...

dep_b 9y ago

It's kind of weird that gaining marketshare in a shrinking market while increasing revenue per sold phone would be a bad thing just because some analist thought it would even sell better.

astrodust 9y ago
Apple has always had a strange relationship with analysts, but post Jobs they started to generate increasingly insane projections. Part of the blame here is on Apple, they run an unusually secretive operation, where other companies would give a lot more in the way of guidance to help keep expectations more realistic.
- allwein 9y ago
  They don't provide guidance on product mix, but they do provide guidance on expected revenue and margin. For Q1 2018 they projected between $84-$87 billion and came in at $88.3 billion. Apple has been historically accurate in nailing their projections, yet when analysts calculate the expected product mix, they either forget the mix and assume Apple is going to sell $80 billion in only iPhones, or they include the mix, which must mean they expect Apple to sell $120 billion worth of stuff.
oflannabhra 9y ago
Yep, exactly. The lack of cognitive dissonance by the tech and finance press that covers Apple astounds me.
ac29 9y ago
>gaining marketshare Where is Apple gaining market share? As near as I can tell by available data [0], their market share has been pretty flat for the past decade. Apple's revenue share may be increasing as low and mid tier Android devices continue to improve and proliferate, though. https://www.statista.com/statistics/216459/global-market-share-of-apple-iphone/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/216459/global-market-sha...
nihonde 9y ago
It’s just a way to try to manipulate the stock price. They feed this blatantly false story every year, then buy on the dip and arbitrage when Tim Cook inevitably proves them wrong. It’s very transparent if you follow AAPL over a long time. WSJ and Nikkei are the chief offenders every year.

longerthoughts 9y ago

I would love to see somebody hold analysts accountable for their projections by keeping a record of accuracy.

reaperducer 9y ago
One of the Apple news sites used to do this. Every once in a while (quarter, maybe?) it would publish a list of predictions from a handful of analysts and compare their predictions to reality. I haven't seen it in a while, so I suspect it was MacNN (RIP).
- astrodust 9y ago
  John Gruber (Daring Fireball) would occasionally collect "claim chowder" and later call them out on their bullshit.
- oflannabhra 9y ago
  Philip Elmer-Dewitt does this. Here [0] is his most recent report card for 4Q18. [0] - https://www.ped30.com/2018/02/02/best-worst-apple-analysts-q1-2018-edition/ https://www.ped30.com/2018/02/02/best-worst-apple-analysts-q...