3 ms·

Pinker also looks at relative numbers a lot, to me this seems disingenuous given for example that every day an equivalent number of people as a fully loaded 747

by soheil 9y ago

Pinker also looks at relative numbers a lot, to me this seems disingenuous given for example that every day an equivalent number of people as a fully loaded 747 die to car accidents alone. We have been on the brink of complete nuclear annihilation at least once, to say we're very far from another such incident would be almost mad. Pinker avoids the giant elephants in the room so sure, the fast that we're still here makes his arguments look good, but they could be very shortsighted specially if there is no one to talk about them.

ghostcluster 9y ago
vehicle death rates have cratered over the decades. http://blog.fusedgrid.ca/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/VKM-Fatalities-USA-Historic-1900-to20111.jpg http://blog.fusedgrid.ca/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/VKM-Fata... I guess engineering-related safety regulations actually work.
- dredmorbius 9y ago
  Interesting curves. Half the reduction occurred from 1912 to about 1922, the first decade of large-scale auto use. Bt 1940, it halved again. The next halving gets you to the eary 1970s. The present rate looks to be about 1 death per 100 million vehicle miles travelled (VMT), or roughly 1/5 the rate in 1970. My main takeaway is diminishing marginal returns, and a fairly consistent trend of halving the rate every 20 years or so, after the first decade.
  - ghostcluster 9y ago
    i do wonder if driving with smartphones has caused any sort of bump in the last 7 years
    - dredmorbius 9y ago
      They're attributed to 9% of MVA deaths, and 16% of MVA injuries as of 2016, though trends seem relatively flat (or declining) since 2010. Overall accident instances tend to scale with miles driven, which are a pro-cyclical economic factor. That is: as economic activity increases, people drive more, for both commuting and recreation. https://www.cdc.gov/motorvehiclesafety/distracted_driving/index.html https://www.cdc.gov/motorvehiclesafety/distracted_driving/in... https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/#/ https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/#/

by soheil 9y ago

ghostcluster 9y ago

vehicle death rates have cratered over the decades. http://blog.fusedgrid.ca/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/VKM-Fatalities-USA-Historic-1900-to20111.jpg http://blog.fusedgrid.ca/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/VKM-Fata... I guess engineering-related safety regulations actually work.

dredmorbius 9y ago
Interesting curves. Half the reduction occurred from 1912 to about 1922, the first decade of large-scale auto use. Bt 1940, it halved again. The next halving gets you to the eary 1970s. The present rate looks to be about 1 death per 100 million vehicle miles travelled (VMT), or roughly 1/5 the rate in 1970. My main takeaway is diminishing marginal returns, and a fairly consistent trend of halving the rate every 20 years or so, after the first decade.
- ghostcluster 9y ago
  i do wonder if driving with smartphones has caused any sort of bump in the last 7 years
  - dredmorbius 9y ago
    They're attributed to 9% of MVA deaths, and 16% of MVA injuries as of 2016, though trends seem relatively flat (or declining) since 2010. Overall accident instances tend to scale with miles driven, which are a pro-cyclical economic factor. That is: as economic activity increases, people drive more, for both commuting and recreation. https://www.cdc.gov/motorvehiclesafety/distracted_driving/index.html https://www.cdc.gov/motorvehiclesafety/distracted_driving/in... https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/#/ https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/#/