4 ms·

I think the reasoning in the arguments is left a little loose on purpose simply because it is so difficult make strong arguments about something we know so litt

by jwellt 9y ago

I think the reasoning in the arguments is left a little loose on purpose simply because it is so difficult make strong arguments about something we know so little about.

s1dechnl 9y ago
It is difficult to make arguments in something that has no grounding. I'd expect someone who claims to have a valid argument for an [intelligence explosion] event to have formal education and industry experience designing computational systems such that they could clearly define how exactly it could occur. I have yet to see such an individual w/ such a viewpoint. Instead, I see a ridiculous argument being forwarded by people who are least informed/experienced so as to push fear, uncertainty, doubt either for profit/attention or because it fulfills some sci-fi oriented religious prophecy. Internally, companies require extensive and well reasoned documentation before funding an initiative. Externally, someone w/ no expertise/proof throws their hands up in the air speaking about armageddon and they are able to secure considerable attention and money.
- red75prime 9y ago
  What is your argument? Why a group of engineers who can think two times faster than average cannot perform the task of designing three times faster engineer quicker than a group of average engineers? They will hit economical and physical limits eventually, sure. But what will stop them at the beginning?
  - pas 9y ago
    I guess the argument is, that so far no one showed good examples of how would that lead to a total extinction. How would it start, etc. So it's kind of a (fallacious) argument against "black box"-ing the whole intelligence explosion problem. If you can't define it, you can't analyze it sort of thing.
    - red75prime 9y ago
      By the same logic there could be no virus which will exterminate humanity, because there was no precedents and we don't know the structure of such virus. Right?
    - s1dechnl 9y ago
      What I stated was that there isn't even a sound/reasoned example as to how a it would escape its bounds unless purposely authored to and even then you run into the scenario of human limits (its creator). Also, having no understanding on how AGI is structured, it is quite foolish to talk about bound leaping in the traditional sense of tech which is mainly associated with computer viruses that are purposely written for that sole purpose. There's nothing to even suggest you can purposely author AGI in such a fashion. So... > How would it start, etc. There has been no credible framing on how it would even start. As such, it's a null point of discussion. > If you can't define it, you can't analyze it sort of thing. With no definition, you can 'attempt' to analyze it and you'll likely be horribly off the mark, wasting tons of resources, and likely produce something that has no bearing on the real thing. Instead of admitting this, it's like people put full faith in these efforts being sound when the reality is the exact opposite. Why engage in this, unless your aim is profit/notoriety, when you could be working on the actual problem? Define intelligence [first]. Time to be honest with oneself. Time to stop projecting ones shortcomings on others. Time to stop using fear/uncertainty/doubt to obscure one's true intent. Time to stop pushing the disinformation cloud. Time for TRUE intelligence.
  - s1dechnl 9y ago
    > But what will stop them at the beginning? Themselves of course. You are after-all your own worst enemy. I don't think people appreciate the incredibly slim number of individuals who are actually capable of pursuing this problem through to fruition and what their natures necessarily have to be. Do people not know of the types of individuals whose work is still being dusted off and relabeled as modern day achievements by others? The thinkers and creators of the previous AI age had certain characteristics. Certain character flaws and natures preclude you from probing certain subject matter. If you don't know much about yourself as a human being and your creation... If you haven't conquered aspects of yourself, how do you imagine you magically become capable of replicated it another domain? You don't. It's a non-starter which is why there is so much wheel spinning going on even with billions of dollars of resources and top ranking engineering talent. I really don't think people appreciate how fundamental AGI is. Look in a mirror sometime. All the answers are right there if you can find them/recognize them. Always has been.
- pas 9y ago
  That's quite a bad argument when it comes to "existential risk for all of humanity". Of course, so far no one has any idea how pragmatically it could play out. Maybe it'll start with something as banal as VisualStudio + Cortana providing an advantage to AI design, that helps designing a better Cortana, that helps designing a better Cortana, that ... Yes, of course, it's unlikely in the coming next 1-2 decade, because the best "AGI" we know (the human mind), is a hodgepodge of specialized faculties jury rigged together by ancient code lossy compressed and stored in a multi-stage bootloading wetware that takes years to learn reading the magnificent ~26 letters of a latin alphabet (but similarly takes the same time to learn walking, talking, hearing, rudimentary thinking, a minimal concept of self, a theory of mind and so on, and for some reason it has a shitty API, it must go through all of the aforementioned to even begin learning chess). So far AI is focusing on computer vision, some NLP, (strategy or easy to evaluate) games. At least the current progress/results are clustered around those areas. We don't know when will be the next big leap, maybe in knowledge representation, or goal formation, maybe in other kinds of very useful, more general intelligence related areas.
  - s1dechnl 9y ago
    > That's quite a bad argument when it comes to "existential risk for all of humanity". It's not a bad argument. It's the standard for creating one. Engineers get paid to resolve risk/problems. So, if you claim there is one and it is fantastically an 'existential risk for all of humanity', one should at least be able to explain how exactly it exists in the most basic technical terms. I haven't heard a single example of this and in my work it was resolved from focusing on the hard problem : What is intelligence?. > Of course, so far no one has any idea how pragmatically it could play out. Then there is no argument. Let it go. What you don't understand is that millions/billions are at play over this argument. Humans love to make up fantastical nonsense/games for profit. You're being played. If someone truly claims they care about this issue, why haven't they done the first step? Define how exactly this pragmatically could play out. Were talking about people with PhDs, industry titans, and millions if not billions are at play and you're telling me that between them all they can't come up with a signle pragmatic way this scenario plays out? It's a scam that's why. > Maybe it'll start with something as banal as VisualStudio + Cortana providing an advantage to AI design, that helps designing a better Cortana, that helps designing a better Cortana, that ... Garbage in garbage out. Weak AI in Weak AI out. > Yes, of course, it's unlikely in the coming next 1-2 decade, because the best "AGI" we know (the human mind), is a hodgepodge of specialized faculties jury rigged together by ancient code lossy compressed and stored in a multi-stage bootloading wetware that takes years to learn reading the magnificent ~26 letters of a latin alphabet (but similarly takes the same time to learn walking, talking, hearing, rudimentary thinking, a minimal concept of self, a theory of mind and so on, and for some reason it has a shitty API, it must go through all of the aforementioned to even begin learning chess). And if I told you the foundation of AGI has already been defined, the core computational model proofed, and that a functional system exists today how would anything change? AGI is here and there is no doomsday playing out. It's running on an 8-core processor, a GPU, and 32GB of RAM completing interactive exercises and going through a series of tests defined by its creator. The bowl of spaghetti above your head was decoded and a functional equivalent instantiated in computer hardware. The locks are compiled binaries, read only code regions, and a power button. > So far AI is focusing on computer vision, some NLP, (strategy or easy to evaluate) games. At least the current progress/results are clustered around those areas. We don't know when will be the next big leap, maybe in knowledge representation, or goal formation, maybe in other kinds of very useful, more general intelligence related areas. Instead imagine a child AGI with no bearings on the world... The human equivalent eons ago... Being carefully cultivated and learned in a controlled environment. No takeoff intelligence scenario. No end of the world. A child simply stumbling its way through controlled scenarios being oversee and tweaked by its creator. Not so scary huh?

by jwellt 9y ago

I think the reasoning in the arguments is left a little loose on purpose simply because it is so difficult make strong arguments about something we know so little about.

s1dechnl 9y ago

It is difficult to make arguments in something that has no grounding. I'd expect someone who claims to have a valid argument for an [intelligence explosion] event to have formal education and industry experience designing computational systems such that they could clearly define how exactly it could occur. I have yet to see such an individual w/ such a viewpoint. Instead, I see a ridiculous argument being forwarded by people who are least informed/experienced so as to push fear, uncertainty, doubt either for profit/attention or because it fulfills some sci-fi oriented religious prophecy. Internally, companies require extensive and well reasoned documentation before funding an initiative. Externally, someone w/ no expertise/proof throws their hands up in the air speaking about armageddon and they are able to secure considerable attention and money.

red75prime 9y ago
What is your argument? Why a group of engineers who can think two times faster than average cannot perform the task of designing three times faster engineer quicker than a group of average engineers? They will hit economical and physical limits eventually, sure. But what will stop them at the beginning?
- pas 9y ago
  I guess the argument is, that so far no one showed good examples of how would that lead to a total extinction. How would it start, etc. So it's kind of a (fallacious) argument against "black box"-ing the whole intelligence explosion problem. If you can't define it, you can't analyze it sort of thing.
  - red75prime 9y ago
    By the same logic there could be no virus which will exterminate humanity, because there was no precedents and we don't know the structure of such virus. Right?
  - s1dechnl 9y ago
    What I stated was that there isn't even a sound/reasoned example as to how a it would escape its bounds unless purposely authored to and even then you run into the scenario of human limits (its creator). Also, having no understanding on how AGI is structured, it is quite foolish to talk about bound leaping in the traditional sense of tech which is mainly associated with computer viruses that are purposely written for that sole purpose. There's nothing to even suggest you can purposely author AGI in such a fashion. So... > How would it start, etc. There has been no credible framing on how it would even start. As such, it's a null point of discussion. > If you can't define it, you can't analyze it sort of thing. With no definition, you can 'attempt' to analyze it and you'll likely be horribly off the mark, wasting tons of resources, and likely produce something that has no bearing on the real thing. Instead of admitting this, it's like people put full faith in these efforts being sound when the reality is the exact opposite. Why engage in this, unless your aim is profit/notoriety, when you could be working on the actual problem? Define intelligence [first]. Time to be honest with oneself. Time to stop projecting ones shortcomings on others. Time to stop using fear/uncertainty/doubt to obscure one's true intent. Time to stop pushing the disinformation cloud. Time for TRUE intelligence.
- s1dechnl 9y ago
  > But what will stop them at the beginning? Themselves of course. You are after-all your own worst enemy. I don't think people appreciate the incredibly slim number of individuals who are actually capable of pursuing this problem through to fruition and what their natures necessarily have to be. Do people not know of the types of individuals whose work is still being dusted off and relabeled as modern day achievements by others? The thinkers and creators of the previous AI age had certain characteristics. Certain character flaws and natures preclude you from probing certain subject matter. If you don't know much about yourself as a human being and your creation... If you haven't conquered aspects of yourself, how do you imagine you magically become capable of replicated it another domain? You don't. It's a non-starter which is why there is so much wheel spinning going on even with billions of dollars of resources and top ranking engineering talent. I really don't think people appreciate how fundamental AGI is. Look in a mirror sometime. All the answers are right there if you can find them/recognize them. Always has been.
pas 9y ago
That's quite a bad argument when it comes to "existential risk for all of humanity". Of course, so far no one has any idea how pragmatically it could play out. Maybe it'll start with something as banal as VisualStudio + Cortana providing an advantage to AI design, that helps designing a better Cortana, that helps designing a better Cortana, that ... Yes, of course, it's unlikely in the coming next 1-2 decade, because the best "AGI" we know (the human mind), is a hodgepodge of specialized faculties jury rigged together by ancient code lossy compressed and stored in a multi-stage bootloading wetware that takes years to learn reading the magnificent ~26 letters of a latin alphabet (but similarly takes the same time to learn walking, talking, hearing, rudimentary thinking, a minimal concept of self, a theory of mind and so on, and for some reason it has a shitty API, it must go through all of the aforementioned to even begin learning chess). So far AI is focusing on computer vision, some NLP, (strategy or easy to evaluate) games. At least the current progress/results are clustered around those areas. We don't know when will be the next big leap, maybe in knowledge representation, or goal formation, maybe in other kinds of very useful, more general intelligence related areas.
- s1dechnl 9y ago
  > That's quite a bad argument when it comes to "existential risk for all of humanity". It's not a bad argument. It's the standard for creating one. Engineers get paid to resolve risk/problems. So, if you claim there is one and it is fantastically an 'existential risk for all of humanity', one should at least be able to explain how exactly it exists in the most basic technical terms. I haven't heard a single example of this and in my work it was resolved from focusing on the hard problem : What is intelligence?. > Of course, so far no one has any idea how pragmatically it could play out. Then there is no argument. Let it go. What you don't understand is that millions/billions are at play over this argument. Humans love to make up fantastical nonsense/games for profit. You're being played. If someone truly claims they care about this issue, why haven't they done the first step? Define how exactly this pragmatically could play out. Were talking about people with PhDs, industry titans, and millions if not billions are at play and you're telling me that between them all they can't come up with a signle pragmatic way this scenario plays out? It's a scam that's why. > Maybe it'll start with something as banal as VisualStudio + Cortana providing an advantage to AI design, that helps designing a better Cortana, that helps designing a better Cortana, that ... Garbage in garbage out. Weak AI in Weak AI out. > Yes, of course, it's unlikely in the coming next 1-2 decade, because the best "AGI" we know (the human mind), is a hodgepodge of specialized faculties jury rigged together by ancient code lossy compressed and stored in a multi-stage bootloading wetware that takes years to learn reading the magnificent ~26 letters of a latin alphabet (but similarly takes the same time to learn walking, talking, hearing, rudimentary thinking, a minimal concept of self, a theory of mind and so on, and for some reason it has a shitty API, it must go through all of the aforementioned to even begin learning chess). And if I told you the foundation of AGI has already been defined, the core computational model proofed, and that a functional system exists today how would anything change? AGI is here and there is no doomsday playing out. It's running on an 8-core processor, a GPU, and 32GB of RAM completing interactive exercises and going through a series of tests defined by its creator. The bowl of spaghetti above your head was decoded and a functional equivalent instantiated in computer hardware. The locks are compiled binaries, read only code regions, and a power button. > So far AI is focusing on computer vision, some NLP, (strategy or easy to evaluate) games. At least the current progress/results are clustered around those areas. We don't know when will be the next big leap, maybe in knowledge representation, or goal formation, maybe in other kinds of very useful, more general intelligence related areas. Instead imagine a child AGI with no bearings on the world... The human equivalent eons ago... Being carefully cultivated and learned in a controlled environment. No takeoff intelligence scenario. No end of the world. A child simply stumbling its way through controlled scenarios being oversee and tweaked by its creator. Not so scary huh?