2 ms·
I'm seeing a decline from 93% in 2012 [0] to 88% in 2016 [1], which isn't insignificant. And black voter turnout also fell by 7 percentage points from 2012 to 2
by tfehring 9y ago
I'm seeing a decline from 93% in 2012 [0] to 88% in 2016 [1], which isn't insignificant. And black voter turnout also fell by 7 percentage points from 2012 to 2016 [2]. Combining those figures, Obama got 620 votes per 1,000 eligible black voters in 2012, while HRC got 525 per 1,000 in 2016. Compare the margin of victory in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania to 9.5% of the black population of each of those states.
To be clear, my point is that it's disingenuous to claim that black voters supported HRC in 2016 at the same rate that they supported Obama in 2012. I'm not trying to argue that black America is the reason Trump won, since I don't believe that to be the case for a number of reasons. For one, it's obviously stupid to attribute that much voting power to a demographic that makes up ~12% of the population. And that's made even stupider by the fact that black voters are probably the most Democrat-leaning demographic there is. Like, yeah, there's a chance the result would have been different if black America voted for HRC in 2016 at the same rate that they voted for Obama in 2012. But if white people voted for HRC in 2016 at the same rate that black people voted for Obama in 2012, she'd have won every state.
Also, I'm not sure why you're calling out women in particular, when women favored Clinton by a 12-point margin while men favored Trump by a 12-point margin [3]. I've personally lost a great deal of respect for a lot of people since the beginning of 2016 because they supported a racist troll for president, but in my case those people have predominantly been men, and the numbers tell a similar story in general.
[0] https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/polls/us-elections/how-groups-voted/how-groups-voted-2012/ https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/polls/us-elections/how-group...
[1] https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/polls/us-elections/how-groups-voted/groups-voted-2016/ https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/polls/us-elections/how-group...
[2] http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/05/12/black-voter-turnout-fell-in-2016-even-as-a-record-number-of-americans-cast-ballots/ http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/05/12/black-voter-...
[3] http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/11/09/behind-trumps-victory-divisions-by-race-gender-education/ http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/11/09/behind-trump...
- yardie 9y agoI called out white, middle-class women. A demographic that Hillary is a member of and probably assumed she had a sort of rapport with. Women, in general choose her by 12 points. Her own demographic chose Trump by a 10 point margin and it was even worse with non-college educated women. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-couldnt-win-over-white-women/ https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-couldnt-win-ove...