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Meaningless discussions flooded with brainless terms such as "democracy", "freedom" is not going to lead to anything useful. It is far more useful to actually a

Meaningless discussions flooded with brainless terms such as "democracy", "freedom" is not going to lead to anything useful. It is far more useful to actually ask a simple question - what Xi wants during his 3rd term. He already had his name written into party's charter, his name will probably be written into the Constitution in weeks. This already ensures his ultimate power no matter what is his official title. He must be asking for the 3rd term for something very specific. Something never achieved by previous leaders, something is going to be judged very favourably in the book of Chinese history. My understanding is that Xi wants to be in the office so Taiwan can re-united within his Presidency. This will be considered as the whole reunification of China which carries the ultimate importance in Chinese value system and history. Taiwan itself in that process is _NOT_ relevant, it is an island generating 3% of China's GDP with less than 2% of the population. However, a bold however, being able to do that implies the largely withdraw of the American influence from the west pacific. It is THE symbol of the rise of China. He is not just asking for his 3rd term. President Xi Jinpin is asking to be the leader in charge to manage and witness the above mentioned transformation.

varjag 9y ago
I agree that a dictator starting a reckless regional conflict is a safe bet. Be it Taiwan, Vietnam or India, the likelihood of war is increasing drastically.
- dis-sys 9y ago
  > Be it Taiwan, Vietnam Vietnam? Surely those old US vietnam war veterans are going to cheer up their great grandsons and ask them to be strong when defending the same communist vietnamese government they fought against 50 years ago. Gee, that will be an embarrassing moment.
  - varjag 9y ago
    It's not like they didn't see Communist China attacking Communist Vietnam before..
- craigsmansion 9y ago
  > I agree that a dictator starting a reckless regional conflict is a safe bet. Would you say it is more or less safe than an elected official starting up a conflict to distract people around re-election time? > Be it Taiwan The PRC is already at war with Taiwan, and has been for decades now. As far as wars go, it's pretty bloodless, with the PRC only saber-rattling when Taiwan purchases and places new US weapons, but other than that both parties don't want to rock the boat, because that's bad for business. So unless some idiot tries to get in between and force the issue, it's pretty safe to assume there will be no armed conflict in the near future between the PRC and Taiwan.
  - varjag 9y ago
    > Would you say it is more or less safe than an elected official starting up a conflict to distract people around re-election time? China is not a democracy, not sure what are you getting at.
JohnStrangeII 9y ago
You can frame it as you like, going from a corrupt one-party system to a corrupt dictatorship is never a good thing. Neither internally, nor for investments, nor for trade. As for Taiwan loosing their independence and getting occupied by China. Well, that's one of the few credible scenarios for a start of WW3, so it's also not in anyone's interests.
kryptiskt 9y ago
What he's doing in Hong Kong ensures that that won't happen during his lifetime.
ksec 9y ago
>My understanding is that Xi wants to be in the office so Taiwan can re-united within his Presidency My god that was my exact same thought. But it is hard to explain to people who dont know much about China, how Chinese values this deeply. Much more so then whatever hundred of billions that will cost them. Having said that, I still dont see how this is going to happen, even within his life time. Edit: I have had this argument on Twitter. With people keep calling for democracy on China or whatever. And when people like dis-sys say something that does not align with their view, they immediately thought this person is all for Communism, dictatorship, one part system. I dont know about dis-sys, but I certainly don't. What I am saying / writing, is what I think is going happen ( Analysis ). NOT what I want to happen ( Wish ). It is entirely two different things.
- natch 9y ago
  >Chinese values this deeply. Taiwanese people don't value it deeply. They'd prefer to be left alone in their happy, prosperous, democratic, multiparty country. Chinese people are highly brainwashed on the subject.
- LiweiZ 9y ago
  People are educated from very young to have this sense of one China, while we lost many more territories to our big north bro.
mmmBacon 9y ago
Taiwan is most certainly relevant because it is free. I’ve spent a lot of time in Taiwan. The people I’ve encountered there don’t seem to have any desire to reunite with the mainland. Additionally Taiwan now has a functioning democracy and I am impressed with what they’ve accomplished. I also think Taiwan is well on its way to becoming culturally distinct from mainland China. I can’t put my finger on it exactly but it’s a strong feeling I have from visiting both places a lot. Any push by China to force Taiwan to reunite with China I feel will lead to war with the US. As an American, I feel we have an obligation to protect Taiwan and would strongly support defending Taiwan.
- tonylinn80 9y ago
  Whether Taiwan's democracy is "functioning" is very questionable
LiweiZ 9y ago
You told some truly interesting points and got lots of downvotes.

varjag 9y ago

I agree that a dictator starting a reckless regional conflict is a safe bet. Be it Taiwan, Vietnam or India, the likelihood of war is increasing drastically.

dis-sys 9y ago
> Be it Taiwan, Vietnam Vietnam? Surely those old US vietnam war veterans are going to cheer up their great grandsons and ask them to be strong when defending the same communist vietnamese government they fought against 50 years ago. Gee, that will be an embarrassing moment.
- varjag 9y ago
  It's not like they didn't see Communist China attacking Communist Vietnam before..
craigsmansion 9y ago
> I agree that a dictator starting a reckless regional conflict is a safe bet. Would you say it is more or less safe than an elected official starting up a conflict to distract people around re-election time? > Be it Taiwan The PRC is already at war with Taiwan, and has been for decades now. As far as wars go, it's pretty bloodless, with the PRC only saber-rattling when Taiwan purchases and places new US weapons, but other than that both parties don't want to rock the boat, because that's bad for business. So unless some idiot tries to get in between and force the issue, it's pretty safe to assume there will be no armed conflict in the near future between the PRC and Taiwan.
- varjag 9y ago
  > Would you say it is more or less safe than an elected official starting up a conflict to distract people around re-election time? China is not a democracy, not sure what are you getting at.

JohnStrangeII 9y ago

You can frame it as you like, going from a corrupt one-party system to a corrupt dictatorship is never a good thing. Neither internally, nor for investments, nor for trade. As for Taiwan loosing their independence and getting occupied by China. Well, that's one of the few credible scenarios for a start of WW3, so it's also not in anyone's interests.

kryptiskt 9y ago

What he's doing in Hong Kong ensures that that won't happen during his lifetime.

ksec 9y ago

>My understanding is that Xi wants to be in the office so Taiwan can re-united within his Presidency My god that was my exact same thought. But it is hard to explain to people who dont know much about China, how Chinese values this deeply. Much more so then whatever hundred of billions that will cost them. Having said that, I still dont see how this is going to happen, even within his life time. Edit: I have had this argument on Twitter. With people keep calling for democracy on China or whatever. And when people like dis-sys say something that does not align with their view, they immediately thought this person is all for Communism, dictatorship, one part system. I dont know about dis-sys, but I certainly don't. What I am saying / writing, is what I think is going happen ( Analysis ). NOT what I want to happen ( Wish ). It is entirely two different things.

natch 9y ago
>Chinese values this deeply. Taiwanese people don't value it deeply. They'd prefer to be left alone in their happy, prosperous, democratic, multiparty country. Chinese people are highly brainwashed on the subject.
LiweiZ 9y ago
People are educated from very young to have this sense of one China, while we lost many more territories to our big north bro.

mmmBacon 9y ago

Taiwan is most certainly relevant because it is free. I’ve spent a lot of time in Taiwan. The people I’ve encountered there don’t seem to have any desire to reunite with the mainland. Additionally Taiwan now has a functioning democracy and I am impressed with what they’ve accomplished. I also think Taiwan is well on its way to becoming culturally distinct from mainland China. I can’t put my finger on it exactly but it’s a strong feeling I have from visiting both places a lot. Any push by China to force Taiwan to reunite with China I feel will lead to war with the US. As an American, I feel we have an obligation to protect Taiwan and would strongly support defending Taiwan.

tonylinn80 9y ago
Whether Taiwan's democracy is "functioning" is very questionable

LiweiZ 9y ago

You told some truly interesting points and got lots of downvotes.