The only real data we have are the effects of the 1859 solar storm (ask your favorite search engine, my stupid phone still has no copy and paste), which carried

The only real data we have are the effects of the 1859 solar storm (ask your favorite search engine, my stupid phone still has no copy and paste), which carried enough EMF to burn up telegraph lines. So we have one dangerous event in 150 years (before mid-19th century there was no infrastructure to notice these events), which gives you some limits on the probability (you can quite confidently exclude the probability 0), but apart from that, we don't now enough about the inner workings of the sun to make accurate predictions.