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Asteroid is discovered in deep space heading for Earth. Astronomers watch the asteroid approach Earth. Asteroid hits New York City. Millions die. Astronomer
by NumberSix 9y ago
Asteroid is discovered in deep space heading for Earth. Astronomers watch the asteroid approach Earth. Asteroid hits New York City. Millions die. Astronomers and media report:
"Asteroid from deep space kills millions. Asteroid causes death of millions."
No experiment is possible. Causation is clear.
- curuinor 9y agoI'm sorry to be seeming to make a straw man, but do you actually in sober thought think that economics is as well-understood as physics?
- craftyguy 9y agoDid you just post a rebutal to your original comment calling for 'experiments'? If economics is as mysterious as you say, how can you design experiments that produce verifiable and reproducible results?
- curuinor 9y agoPhysics has had a lot of predictive power: economics hasn't. "Asteroids are incredibly powerful" is a physical statement, and a physical statement of causation that you can only make because physics is better-understood. With exceptions, physical statements have predictive power. With exceptions, economic statements don't. So that's why I say that causality in economics is not generally understood.