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Causal statements. No experiment means you shouldn't make causal statements. You can have natural experiments, but I don't see any. Did they try kidnapping Con
by curuinor 9y ago
Causal statements. No experiment means you shouldn't make causal statements.
You can have natural experiments, but I don't see any. Did they try kidnapping Congress and forcing them to do a total embargo on China? Seems a no.
- NumberSix 9y agoAsteroid is discovered in deep space heading for Earth. Astronomers watch the asteroid approach Earth. Asteroid hits New York City. Millions die. Astronomers and media report: "Asteroid from deep space kills millions. Asteroid causes death of millions." No experiment is possible. Causation is clear.
- curuinor 9y agoI'm sorry to be seeming to make a straw man, but do you actually in sober thought think that economics is as well-understood as physics?
- craftyguy 9y agoDid you just post a rebutal to your original comment calling for 'experiments'? If economics is as mysterious as you say, how can you design experiments that produce verifiable and reproducible results?
- curuinor 9y agoPhysics has had a lot of predictive power: economics hasn't. "Asteroids are incredibly powerful" is a physical statement, and a physical statement of causation that you can only make because physics is better-understood. With exceptions, physical statements have predictive power. With exceptions, economic statements don't. So that's why I say that causality in economics is not generally understood.
- dang 9y ago"Please don't post shallow dismissals, especially of other people's work. A good critical comment is one that teaches us something." https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html