26 ms·

How Many Tesla Model 3 Cars Have Been Made?

131 points by SREinSF 9y ago

stupidcar 9y ago
Despite the delays, the shape of the estimated production curve is pretty encouraging.
- melling 9y ago
  They claimed to approaching 1,000 cars a week around the end of the year. I put the numbers from Bloomberg on my blog on Thursday to track the accuracy: http://h4labs.org/tesla-is-approaching-1000-model-3s-a-week/ http://h4labs.org/tesla-is-approaching-1000-model-3s-a-week/
EwanToo 9y ago
Nissan claim to have sold over 250,000 Leafs so far, and the new model has range similar to the Model 3. The race is definitely on, which is great news for those of us who just want the best electric car :) https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-review/nissan/leaf/first-drives/nissan-leaf-2018-review https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-review/nissan/leaf/first-drive...
- drb91 9y ago
  What’s the charging network like?
  - tobyhinloopen 9y ago
    The same as the Tesla's charging network, since they are compatible...
    - drb91 9y ago
      Are you sure leafs can use superchargers? That doesn’t seem correct at all. I’m not sure what other charging network i would refer to.
      - EwanToo 9y ago
        In the UK I've never seen a supercharger (though they exist) but lots of car parks at offices, shopping malls, etc, have generic charging points. BP are adding them on petrol forecourts too. See this map for example https://www.zap-map.com/charge-points/ https://www.zap-map.com/charge-points/
        _ph_ 9y ago
        Superchargers are usually built outside of cities along the long-distance routes. So they might not be as obvious as other chargers. Here is a map of all active superchargers: https://supercharge.info/ https://supercharge.info/
      - tobyhinloopen 9y ago
        You can use all non-tesla fast-charging stations, charging to 80% in 20 minutes. Do note that tesla supercharger stations also have "normal" fast-charging stations. Tesla is the only company remaining to deploy vendor-specific chargers.
        bdcravens 9y ago
        Interesting that while we tend to beat on the standards drum in HN, Tesla might get a pass ...
        marvin 9y ago
        I don't think it's entirely fair to expect Tesla to _wait_ for the rest of the car industry to agree on a standard that suits everyone. When the Model S was developed, no other car company except Nissan had any notable interest in electric cars, and no other company had plans to make cars even _close_ to Tesla's in terms of battery capacity. Assuming that a charger network was necessary for success, which I would argue it was, waiting for the others to catch up could have killed the company. Note that there have still been no large-scale deployments of charging standards with more than 50-60kW of power, which is half what Tesla is currently deploying to most of its charging stations in North America.
    - codeulike 9y ago
      Teslas can use the other chargers, but no-one except Tesla can use the Superchargers
  - Shivetya 9y ago
    I really dislike this focus on charging networks. Long distance trips with current generation electrics is not comparable to current petrol powered cars. If anything we should use the roll out of electrics to take back land to service cars which includes "charging stations" other than those already used for parking cars. with regards to my trip comment, the contorted thought processes people go through to justify one hour stops for full recharges plus what can be ten to fifteen minute side trips to charging stations should clue many in on how not ready it is. (and yes it is an hour if not more even for Tesla to fully charge and range dives in winter)
    - Coincoin 9y ago
      >the contorted thought processes people go through to justify one hour stops for full recharges But everybody knows you need to stop a full hour to pee for every two hours of driving else you might die. Think about all the delicious restaurant meals and fun you haven't had because you never needed to wait for your ICE car to recharge in the middle of nowhere.
      - pkaye 9y ago
        Most people I know stop 15 minutes every two hours and maybe stop for a meal every 4 hours. An hour every two hours is too much. It extends the travel time by 50%.
        username223 9y ago
        My old rule for long drives was to drive for 3 CDs (i.e. albums), fuel up for 10 minutes, and repeat until done. On a highway, that's 200+ miles per 10-minute stop. EVs are already great for commuting and errands, but they have a long way to go before being even close to competitive for long-distance driving.
        greglindahl 9y ago
        And yet lots of Tesla owners drive long distances.
  - ebbv 9y ago
    There is no Nissan specific charging network. The rest of the industry besides Tesla have long since settled on standards for charging and the presence of regular charging stations is improving but slowly. A large part of why is that up til this generation of EVs (Chevy Bolt and new Nissan Leaf and others that are coming), they have really not made sense to drive far. You would have had to stop too often. They were in town or short (sub 30 miles) commute cars. And having owned the previous generation Leaf for the last 3 years I can tell you 99% of our charging is done in our garage. Once in a while we park somewhere that has charging or my wife will luck into getting a charge spot in a parking garage. But we don’t take it on drives where we need a charging station to complete the journey. We have a gas car for those longer drives right now. But that will change with this new generation that have 40KWh+ batteries.
    - madengr 9y ago
      There is an extensive charging network here in Kansas City area; > 2000 plugs. Though as of 1/18 many have started charging $0.20/kWh, which is double the rate at home. I’ll still use them though. Places like grocery stores are still free.
      - toyg 9y ago
        I still wouldn’t leave my car just plugged in somewhere while I walk away for extensive amounts of time. Call me paranoid, but in urban Europe people will steal and vandalise the shit out of anything that looks slightly unprotected.
        lostapathy 9y ago
        Help me understand that - leaving your car plugged in while shopping is no different than leaving your gas car not-plugged-in while shopping, in terms of leaving your property around. The cord is part of the fixed charged, and not my problem ... just like the hose on a gas pump.
        stefan_ 9y ago
        You typically can't unplug it without the key while charging.
- tobyhinloopen 9y ago
  I'm glad they dropped the awful look of the car.
  - perilunar 9y ago
    Still looks pretty ugly to me. Why does an electric car need such a large front grille?
    - icc97 9y ago
      Yeah, it was an improvement, but very small. I just don't understand why car designers think it's OK to make ugly electric cars. The craziest example is the i8 vs the i3. The i8 is lovely but the i3 is beyond ugliness. It's the same designers trying to build for the same line of cars. A regular BMW 3-series is no uglier than a 5 or 7-series. Tesla built a beautiful car in my eyes. They took the look of an Aston Martin from what I see. Then in a similar fashion as converting the style of a 7-series into a 3-series, they've managed to shrink and simplify the design whilst keeping the look. It's ridiculous that other car companies can't do this with electric cars. I know it's pure vanity, but the Tesla is worth more simply because you don't have to wear dark glasses and a hat to drive it.
      - olyjohn 9y ago
        It's the same reason that I believe the Prius sold so well over other hybrids. A Hybrid Civic or Hybrid Fusion just looked like regular cars. Nobody looked at the tiny badges so nobody knew they existed. You see a Prius, it's ugly, but you know what it is right away, an economical hybrid. People who didn't know asked WTF is, and the car kinda sold itself. I think Toyota knew that the people lining up to buy them would not care about how good the car looked. They just knew that the Prius was the weird car they saw over and over that was a Hybrid. I mean, most people don't even know the 1st gen Prius existed. They look like a regular car. They still got great economy, but IIRC the car didn't sell nearly as well as the newer, more ugly Prius.
- acd10j 9y ago
  how many among these 250,000 leafs sale are for new model, for proper comparison ? This seems like total sale of all Leafs ever sold.
  - ebbv 9y ago
    The new model just went on sale this week so, none. That’s how many of the old ones they sold.
- dalbasal 9y ago
  I don't think there is much (or any) zero sum competition dynamics is EVs for now. More sold means more consumer familiarity, better price curves on components, better supporting infrastructure. Meanwhile, there is not real market share to quarrel over. There isn't a fixed number of EVs that will sell in 2019. It'll depend on price, consumer familiarity, supporting infrastructure... btw... I think Musk has said things to this effect, at least back in TSLS's earlier days. I don't think they're worried about competing too much
  - Barrin92 9y ago
    not being in a zero sum environment doesn't mean that people aren't going to look at the price. When big manufacturers can scale up output I don't see how Tesla is going to justify their price. And that isn't even taking into account that Tesla is burning through crazy amounts of cash already.
    - dalbasal 9y ago
      Sure. If you're expecting a total Tesla failure on price performance... then they'll fail. In terms of the EV models out in 2018, I don't think this is what is happening here. Tesla are having trouble keeping up with demand. They've also been playing a big risk strategy all along, so they still may explode or run out of money. ..I'm just skeptical that the last line of this article: If Tesla can’t figure out how to make more cars soon, it could open a lane for rivals from Detroit and overseas to... I don't agree. There is a big market here, it's basically the market for cars. There's no way Tesla could have ever held that whole market, I don't think they expect to and we shouldn't want them to. Within the market for cars, Tesla could be selling many times more cars than they are optimistically promising to make currently. I think competition is, in this case, way down the list of problems. The problem is as they've been saying all along, they need to build more cars faster.
- spaceisballer 9y ago
  Model 3 says 220 miles base model and Leaf says 151, I don’t find their range to be that similar. 70 miles is a lot of distance. Granted the model 3 is more expensive but I would much rather have that extra range.
- drewg123 9y ago
  I was excited by your comment, so I looked up the 2018 Leaf's range: 151mi in the US vs 310mi for the Model 3. Is there a different model in Leaf the UK? The article you link to says "235 miles (NEDC)/177 miles (WLTP combined)" for the Leaf. Or is the way EV's are rated for range in the UK just different than is the US?
  - Ardren 9y ago
    That's interesting, this[1] press release says: 400 km (248 miles) using a Japaneses standard JC08. 241 km (150 miles) with EPA 380 km (236 miles) with NEDC That's quite a range. http://www.nissan.com.au/Discover/News/2017/September/06/The-new-Nissan-LEAF-raising-the-bar-for-electric-vehicles http://www.nissan.com.au/Discover/News/2017/September/06/The...
    - namlem 9y ago
      I'm pretty sure you can't buy that version in the US.
      - daveguy 9y ago
        I think those are for the same car, just using different standards for measuring range. Depends on which is most accurate. If the US measure for Tesla 3 is 300+ then it's probably apples to apples. But it would be interesting to see the same standard measurements for the model 3.
        thijsb 9y ago
        Correct. And the EPA tends to be most accurate. I've never hit NEDC numbers in any EV.
    - codeulike 9y ago
      That's the same car, with three different range ratings based on different standards. The EPA one is the only one that bears and relation to real world performance.
- jsight 9y ago
  The Model 3 has over 300 miles of range. As far as I know, the Leaf is less than 250.
zyztem 9y ago
Estimating production volume from serial numbers? Looks like a job for a German tank problem: https://www.theregister.co.uk/2014/05/20/german_tank_problem_and_leaky_data/ https://www.theregister.co.uk/2014/05/20/german_tank_problem...
- fnayr 9y ago
  What do you do if Tesla is using a Linear Congruential Generator[1] to generate their serial numbers? Then the highest number found gives no information, even probabilistically. I don't know what the laws are on VINs though, so maybe it's forced to be sequential. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Linear_congruential_generator https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Linear_congruential_generator
  - dsr_ 9y ago
    Here's the VIN decoder, valid since 1981. https://static.ogstatic.com/images/articles/2017/11/02232742/vin_branded_2.png https://static.ogstatic.com/images/articles/2017/11/02232742...
    - greenyoda 9y ago
      And more details here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vehicle_identification_number#Components https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vehicle_identification_number#...
  - pimlottc 9y ago
    I don't think they're attaching significance to the actual VIN numbers, just looking at the total number of unique VINs
JohnJamesRambo 9y ago
Maybe I missed it in the article but how many does Tesla need to make per day to meet it's goals? They are making 1,000 per week now (52k in a year at current rate) and have 500k reservations in line with $1,000 deposits? So they need an order of magnitude increase in rate to fulfill the reservations in a year? I didn't know much about car numbers and it seems about 387k Toyota Camrys were sold in 2017 for reference.
- mephitix 9y ago
  They need to hit their immediate goal of 2,500/week by end of Q1 - see the last chart on that page. They didn't move this goal in the Q4 earnings call, which was surprising - but if this tracker is accurate the production curve seems to be on track. They are also planning to bring in a fully automated assembly line being shipped from Europe, in March. Assuming nothing goes wrong there it is supposed to accelerate production even more.
  - lettergram 9y ago
    > assuming nothing goes wrong Yeah, hopefully they didn't make that assumption... Can't imagine debugging a whole assembly line (even a virtual one in a game like factorio is hell at the beginning)
    - valkum 9y ago
      Except this one was already build and tested in Germany iirc. It should be debugged and taken apart into modular pieces and sent to Tesla. I assume installing these modules should be easier than debugging an assembly line in factorio ;)
      - gmueckl 9y ago
        Don't underestimate the innate human ability to fuck up what appears to be a simple job :). There will be delays and deviation from a best case schedule.
- 9y ago
glaberficken 9y ago
Really curious about what the production bottlenecks are for the Model 3. Is it batteries? Would be thankful to anyone able to point me to further info on this =)
- Parcissons 9y ago
  Im in industry automatization- and its usually that the production is a linear problem- in a tree of linear problems. Meaning any station in the production may show problems after the start. These come in 3 categorys- full stop (machine breaks/quality so bad production cant continue), solvable (machine can produce at reduced rate) - and hidden (quality problem shows down the line). Hidden are the meanest problems, because you have to traverse back up the tree to the producer of the problem- solve the problem, which may result in new problems - migrating back down the production line. Try to not see it as a binary problem of release- not release, but more of a very complex longterm graph traversing problem.
  - deleted 9y ago
    [deleted]
  - cagenut 9y ago
    By any chance to you have any good links or books on this kind of thing? So much of continuous deployment winds up sounding remarkably like things industrial automation already has language and studies for.
- kuschku 9y ago
  The bottleneck is automation. Tesla is still producing cars completely manually. This is why Musk bought the automation company Grohmann. But after he demanded they work 100h weeks (instead of their previous 35h weeks), and said unions would be unnecessary, almost the entire company quit and left. That's the current bottleneck, automation of assembly.
  - gmueckl 9y ago
    Grohmann is a German company. Having employees work more than 40 or 50 hours a week on a regular basis is hard to defend legally. Employee protection is pretty strict about that. Heck, even working more than 10 hours straight is borderline illegal and puts the boss (not the employee) in very hot water. So I can hardly believe that 100h per week were actually demanded.
jl6 9y ago
Saved you a click: 8357 (estimated)
- Hamuko 9y ago
  If that's all you want out of the article, might as well not even click on the comments section.
  - jl6 9y ago
    I always click on the HN comments first, whenever an article title has even a hint of clickbait to it, and I am nearly always well rewarded for it.
flexie 9y ago
This is for once a great article about Tesla that is neither too critical, nor too rosy. They actually do some intelligent estimations instead of just going with whatever anonymous "analysts" or "experts" in the financial markets say. It's a real issue for Tesla if they don't figure out how to build 500,000 cars per year within the next 2-3 years because then they open up a flank for the traditional car manufacturers who probably need 3-4 years before they can market EVs that can compare in specs with model 3, most notably on range. At around 200 miles/320 km, an EV has a range that makes it suitable as a second car for the masses (as opposed to the passionate enthusiasts that might buy in already at 100 miles or less). 200 miles is enough for driving around the city. Currently, the Tesla models, Chevrolet Bolt, Renault Zoe, the new Nissan Leafs, and Opel Ampera, have such ranges. This is the range segment that the traditional car manufacturers are likely to open their first real bids for competitive EVs in from this year and through the next 3-4 years. Tesla can live with that since the segment is insufficient for the masses. Average Joe will not buy an electric car with a 200 mile range. Ever. At around 300 miles/480 km, an EV could be a real primary car if you live in regions with sufficient charging stations. Currently, only the larger Teslas and Model 3 are there. This is where Average Joe starts to buy. But the larger Teslas are too expensive for Average Joe. As for model 3, it can hardly be called a car for the masses until it is produced for the masses. And therein lies the problem. If Tesla doesn't nail this range segment for higher end of the medium priced cars produced at scale in the next 2-3 years, some of the traditional car manufacturers may catch up. Don't forget that even if Tesla reaches 350,000 cars in 2019, which is still a big if, they still leave most of the chips at the table. They will have to go way beyond 1M cars yearly to really close the upper medium price range for the traditional manufacturers. Even 500,000 cars would leave most of the market for a handful of it's competitors. And it would require one or two more Giga Factories to reach a million, which they haven't started to build yet. As for the lower priced cars, Tesla is not there yet, and the traditional car manufacturers may well get there before Tesla if they get to experiment for 4-5 years with the medium priced cars without loosing too much money. So Tesla really needs to hurry. Around 400 miles/640 km, range is no longer an issue for almost any buyer. The few exceptions are buyers in rural areas or buyers that need to commute very far to and from work every day in cold weather or in mountain regions. A 100 mile commute to work in subzero temperatures, and/or in mountain regions would mean that you would have to be very sure that your car is fully charged every day, which would be too much of a hassle. But apart from such edge cases, most people could skip charging for a full working week and still use a car with 400 miles range for commutes. And on road trips, they could drive as far as is comfortable anyways, and if once every few years they needed to drive further than 400 miles, they would likely have passed several charging stations on the way. Currently, no cars are there, but Tesla will likely be first in this segment with the larger models S and X, quite possibly within 1-2 years. Those cars are not for the masses. It's not unreasonable to believe though, that model 3 will have such range in 3-4 years. At 500 miles/800 km, the range issue is solved for 99 percent of potential buyers in the modern world. Tesla claims its new Roadster will have such range. It is still to be seen whether that is true, but anyways, that car is not for the masses. But maybe in 7-10 years, this will be standard in the smaller Teslas...
mixmastamyk 9y ago
Is that right they are encouraging people to record VINs and post them to a website? Creepy.
- sowbug 9y ago
  The potential creepiness is worse than that. VINs follow a specific algorithmic format, so it's actually possible to make a website with all VINs!
  - mixmastamyk 9y ago
    Same with credit card numbers, doesn't mean you'd want it tracked on a third-party website.
  - lawnchair_larry 9y ago
    And SSNs!
- s2g 9y ago
  why?
Animats 9y ago
Automobile final assembly lines produce about one car per minute. About 2400 per week for one shift. Some are slightly slower or faster, but not by a lot. It's common to run two production shifts, but not three; one shift is needed for line maintenance. 1,000 per week indicates the production line is running, but having problems. This is much better than the few hundred per week from December, which meant hand assembly. One line should top out at 2 shifts, about 5000 vehicles per day, or about 100,000 per year. Then add a second production line. If you really want to find out what's going on in Tesla's plant, find a United Auto Workers organizer in a bar in Fremont and buy him a few beers.
- reificator 9y ago
  If you ever want to get a feel for designing a plant that produces a car every minute, I highly suggest taking a look at Factorio. It's a little abstracted and a little gamey, but the core feel is there, and I very much enjoy the logistics of it. https://www.factorio.com https://www.factorio.com
  - tehsauce 9y ago
    Factorio is probably the most satisfying game I've ever played. Amazingly challenging but has a wonderful feeling of accomplishment when building things. Don't mind the graphics, it's a lot of fun :)
  - froindt 9y ago
    I'm an industrial engineer who also plays factorio. It does a really good job of teaching some of the core parts of running a factory. * what happens when there are supply chain hiccups? * how much inventory do I want? Converting too much iron to steel will waste resources. What is the right mix? * where is my bottleneck? Making anything else faster doesn't matter for overall production. * every process has different time, space, and energy requirements. Running off of entirely electricity or fossil fuels both have pros and cons. I've thought a bit about how it could be used to teach students in the classroom. It would be nice to have UI counters on the machines and setup a small factory. The concept of quality would also be a cool extension. It's also just fun to look at the resources required to build a product from raw source. In real life the concept still applies - 10 lbs of ore will be a fraction of that once refined and a small fraction of that once formed and milled into a desk widget.
ppbutt 9y ago
Anybody else worried/cautious about giving a company even more data about one's location, driving habits, etc. (also, without that company sharing that data with the user whose data it is) - also, knowing that the company is truly in control of the vehicle? I'm all for renewable energy and electric vehicles, but it could be done without selling the user.
- toephu2 9y ago
  Do you use credit cards?
- SEJeff 9y ago
  From https://www.tesla.com/about/legal https://www.tesla.com/about/legal: """If you no longer wish us to collect Telematics Log Data or any other data from your Tesla vehicle, please contact us as indicated in the “How to Contact Us” section below. Please note that, if you opt out from the collection of Telematics Log Data or any other data from your Tesla vehicle (with the exception of the Data Sharing setting detailed above), we will not be able to notify you of issues applicable to your vehicle in real time, and this may result in your vehicle suffering from reduced functionality, serious damage, or inoperability, and it may also disable many features of your vehicle including periodic software and firmware updates, remote services, and interactivity with mobile applications and in-car features such as location search, Internet radio, voice commands, and web browser functionality."""
- m3kw9 9y ago
  Do you use the internet without stuff like Tor?
rdl 9y ago
Why not just put a camera or other sensing system outside their one plant? (People already do this using satellite photos of walmart parking lots, etc. to get advance information about holiday sales.)
- bvod 9y ago
  Who does this and do you have a source? It would be interesting to learn more
  - supercanuck 9y ago
    This is an example of a firm that does this sort of thing in the O&G industry. https://www.clipperdata.com/ https://www.clipperdata.com/
  - rdl 9y ago
    https://www.theverge.com/2016/8/4/12369494/descartes-artificial-intelligence-crop-predictions-usda https://www.theverge.com/2016/8/4/12369494/descartes-artific... https://www.wsj.com/articles/startups-mine-market-moving-data-from-fields-parking-lotseven-shadows-1416502993 https://www.wsj.com/articles/startups-mine-market-moving-dat... https://www.cnbc.com/id/38722872 https://www.cnbc.com/id/38722872

131 points by SREinSF 9y ago

stupidcar 9y ago

Despite the delays, the shape of the estimated production curve is pretty encouraging.

melling 9y ago
They claimed to approaching 1,000 cars a week around the end of the year. I put the numbers from Bloomberg on my blog on Thursday to track the accuracy: http://h4labs.org/tesla-is-approaching-1000-model-3s-a-week/ http://h4labs.org/tesla-is-approaching-1000-model-3s-a-week/

EwanToo 9y ago

Nissan claim to have sold over 250,000 Leafs so far, and the new model has range similar to the Model 3. The race is definitely on, which is great news for those of us who just want the best electric car :) https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-review/nissan/leaf/first-drives/nissan-leaf-2018-review https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-review/nissan/leaf/first-drive...

drb91 9y ago
What’s the charging network like?
- tobyhinloopen 9y ago
  The same as the Tesla's charging network, since they are compatible...
  - drb91 9y ago
    Are you sure leafs can use superchargers? That doesn’t seem correct at all. I’m not sure what other charging network i would refer to.
    - EwanToo 9y ago
      In the UK I've never seen a supercharger (though they exist) but lots of car parks at offices, shopping malls, etc, have generic charging points. BP are adding them on petrol forecourts too. See this map for example https://www.zap-map.com/charge-points/ https://www.zap-map.com/charge-points/
      - _ph_ 9y ago
        Superchargers are usually built outside of cities along the long-distance routes. So they might not be as obvious as other chargers. Here is a map of all active superchargers: https://supercharge.info/ https://supercharge.info/
    - tobyhinloopen 9y ago
      You can use all non-tesla fast-charging stations, charging to 80% in 20 minutes. Do note that tesla supercharger stations also have "normal" fast-charging stations. Tesla is the only company remaining to deploy vendor-specific chargers.
      - bdcravens 9y ago
        Interesting that while we tend to beat on the standards drum in HN, Tesla might get a pass ...
        marvin 9y ago
        I don't think it's entirely fair to expect Tesla to _wait_ for the rest of the car industry to agree on a standard that suits everyone. When the Model S was developed, no other car company except Nissan had any notable interest in electric cars, and no other company had plans to make cars even _close_ to Tesla's in terms of battery capacity. Assuming that a charger network was necessary for success, which I would argue it was, waiting for the others to catch up could have killed the company. Note that there have still been no large-scale deployments of charging standards with more than 50-60kW of power, which is half what Tesla is currently deploying to most of its charging stations in North America.
  - codeulike 9y ago
    Teslas can use the other chargers, but no-one except Tesla can use the Superchargers
- Shivetya 9y ago
  I really dislike this focus on charging networks. Long distance trips with current generation electrics is not comparable to current petrol powered cars. If anything we should use the roll out of electrics to take back land to service cars which includes "charging stations" other than those already used for parking cars. with regards to my trip comment, the contorted thought processes people go through to justify one hour stops for full recharges plus what can be ten to fifteen minute side trips to charging stations should clue many in on how not ready it is. (and yes it is an hour if not more even for Tesla to fully charge and range dives in winter)
  - Coincoin 9y ago
    >the contorted thought processes people go through to justify one hour stops for full recharges But everybody knows you need to stop a full hour to pee for every two hours of driving else you might die. Think about all the delicious restaurant meals and fun you haven't had because you never needed to wait for your ICE car to recharge in the middle of nowhere.
    - pkaye 9y ago
      Most people I know stop 15 minutes every two hours and maybe stop for a meal every 4 hours. An hour every two hours is too much. It extends the travel time by 50%.
      - username223 9y ago
        My old rule for long drives was to drive for 3 CDs (i.e. albums), fuel up for 10 minutes, and repeat until done. On a highway, that's 200+ miles per 10-minute stop. EVs are already great for commuting and errands, but they have a long way to go before being even close to competitive for long-distance driving.
        greglindahl 9y ago
        And yet lots of Tesla owners drive long distances.
- ebbv 9y ago
  There is no Nissan specific charging network. The rest of the industry besides Tesla have long since settled on standards for charging and the presence of regular charging stations is improving but slowly. A large part of why is that up til this generation of EVs (Chevy Bolt and new Nissan Leaf and others that are coming), they have really not made sense to drive far. You would have had to stop too often. They were in town or short (sub 30 miles) commute cars. And having owned the previous generation Leaf for the last 3 years I can tell you 99% of our charging is done in our garage. Once in a while we park somewhere that has charging or my wife will luck into getting a charge spot in a parking garage. But we don’t take it on drives where we need a charging station to complete the journey. We have a gas car for those longer drives right now. But that will change with this new generation that have 40KWh+ batteries.
  - madengr 9y ago
    There is an extensive charging network here in Kansas City area; > 2000 plugs. Though as of 1/18 many have started charging $0.20/kWh, which is double the rate at home. I’ll still use them though. Places like grocery stores are still free.
    - toyg 9y ago
      I still wouldn’t leave my car just plugged in somewhere while I walk away for extensive amounts of time. Call me paranoid, but in urban Europe people will steal and vandalise the shit out of anything that looks slightly unprotected.
      - lostapathy 9y ago
        Help me understand that - leaving your car plugged in while shopping is no different than leaving your gas car not-plugged-in while shopping, in terms of leaving your property around. The cord is part of the fixed charged, and not my problem ... just like the hose on a gas pump.
      - stefan_ 9y ago
        You typically can't unplug it without the key while charging.
tobyhinloopen 9y ago
I'm glad they dropped the awful look of the car.
- perilunar 9y ago
  Still looks pretty ugly to me. Why does an electric car need such a large front grille?
  - icc97 9y ago
    Yeah, it was an improvement, but very small. I just don't understand why car designers think it's OK to make ugly electric cars. The craziest example is the i8 vs the i3. The i8 is lovely but the i3 is beyond ugliness. It's the same designers trying to build for the same line of cars. A regular BMW 3-series is no uglier than a 5 or 7-series. Tesla built a beautiful car in my eyes. They took the look of an Aston Martin from what I see. Then in a similar fashion as converting the style of a 7-series into a 3-series, they've managed to shrink and simplify the design whilst keeping the look. It's ridiculous that other car companies can't do this with electric cars. I know it's pure vanity, but the Tesla is worth more simply because you don't have to wear dark glasses and a hat to drive it.
    - olyjohn 9y ago
      It's the same reason that I believe the Prius sold so well over other hybrids. A Hybrid Civic or Hybrid Fusion just looked like regular cars. Nobody looked at the tiny badges so nobody knew they existed. You see a Prius, it's ugly, but you know what it is right away, an economical hybrid. People who didn't know asked WTF is, and the car kinda sold itself. I think Toyota knew that the people lining up to buy them would not care about how good the car looked. They just knew that the Prius was the weird car they saw over and over that was a Hybrid. I mean, most people don't even know the 1st gen Prius existed. They look like a regular car. They still got great economy, but IIRC the car didn't sell nearly as well as the newer, more ugly Prius.
acd10j 9y ago
how many among these 250,000 leafs sale are for new model, for proper comparison ? This seems like total sale of all Leafs ever sold.
- ebbv 9y ago
  The new model just went on sale this week so, none. That’s how many of the old ones they sold.
dalbasal 9y ago
I don't think there is much (or any) zero sum competition dynamics is EVs for now. More sold means more consumer familiarity, better price curves on components, better supporting infrastructure. Meanwhile, there is not real market share to quarrel over. There isn't a fixed number of EVs that will sell in 2019. It'll depend on price, consumer familiarity, supporting infrastructure... btw... I think Musk has said things to this effect, at least back in TSLS's earlier days. I don't think they're worried about competing too much
- Barrin92 9y ago
  not being in a zero sum environment doesn't mean that people aren't going to look at the price. When big manufacturers can scale up output I don't see how Tesla is going to justify their price. And that isn't even taking into account that Tesla is burning through crazy amounts of cash already.
  - dalbasal 9y ago
    Sure. If you're expecting a total Tesla failure on price performance... then they'll fail. In terms of the EV models out in 2018, I don't think this is what is happening here. Tesla are having trouble keeping up with demand. They've also been playing a big risk strategy all along, so they still may explode or run out of money. ..I'm just skeptical that the last line of this article: If Tesla can’t figure out how to make more cars soon, it could open a lane for rivals from Detroit and overseas to... I don't agree. There is a big market here, it's basically the market for cars. There's no way Tesla could have ever held that whole market, I don't think they expect to and we shouldn't want them to. Within the market for cars, Tesla could be selling many times more cars than they are optimistically promising to make currently. I think competition is, in this case, way down the list of problems. The problem is as they've been saying all along, they need to build more cars faster.
spaceisballer 9y ago
Model 3 says 220 miles base model and Leaf says 151, I don’t find their range to be that similar. 70 miles is a lot of distance. Granted the model 3 is more expensive but I would much rather have that extra range.
drewg123 9y ago
I was excited by your comment, so I looked up the 2018 Leaf's range: 151mi in the US vs 310mi for the Model 3. Is there a different model in Leaf the UK? The article you link to says "235 miles (NEDC)/177 miles (WLTP combined)" for the Leaf. Or is the way EV's are rated for range in the UK just different than is the US?
- Ardren 9y ago
  That's interesting, this[1] press release says: 400 km (248 miles) using a Japaneses standard JC08. 241 km (150 miles) with EPA 380 km (236 miles) with NEDC That's quite a range. http://www.nissan.com.au/Discover/News/2017/September/06/The-new-Nissan-LEAF-raising-the-bar-for-electric-vehicles http://www.nissan.com.au/Discover/News/2017/September/06/The...
  - namlem 9y ago
    I'm pretty sure you can't buy that version in the US.
    - daveguy 9y ago
      I think those are for the same car, just using different standards for measuring range. Depends on which is most accurate. If the US measure for Tesla 3 is 300+ then it's probably apples to apples. But it would be interesting to see the same standard measurements for the model 3.
      - thijsb 9y ago
        Correct. And the EPA tends to be most accurate. I've never hit NEDC numbers in any EV.
  - codeulike 9y ago
    That's the same car, with three different range ratings based on different standards. The EPA one is the only one that bears and relation to real world performance.
jsight 9y ago
The Model 3 has over 300 miles of range. As far as I know, the Leaf is less than 250.

zyztem 9y ago

Estimating production volume from serial numbers? Looks like a job for a German tank problem: https://www.theregister.co.uk/2014/05/20/german_tank_problem_and_leaky_data/ https://www.theregister.co.uk/2014/05/20/german_tank_problem...

fnayr 9y ago
What do you do if Tesla is using a Linear Congruential Generator[1] to generate their serial numbers? Then the highest number found gives no information, even probabilistically. I don't know what the laws are on VINs though, so maybe it's forced to be sequential. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Linear_congruential_generator https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Linear_congruential_generator
- dsr_ 9y ago
  Here's the VIN decoder, valid since 1981. https://static.ogstatic.com/images/articles/2017/11/02232742/vin_branded_2.png https://static.ogstatic.com/images/articles/2017/11/02232742...
  - greenyoda 9y ago
    And more details here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vehicle_identification_number#Components https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vehicle_identification_number#...
- pimlottc 9y ago
  I don't think they're attaching significance to the actual VIN numbers, just looking at the total number of unique VINs

JohnJamesRambo 9y ago

Maybe I missed it in the article but how many does Tesla need to make per day to meet it's goals? They are making 1,000 per week now (52k in a year at current rate) and have 500k reservations in line with $1,000 deposits? So they need an order of magnitude increase in rate to fulfill the reservations in a year? I didn't know much about car numbers and it seems about 387k Toyota Camrys were sold in 2017 for reference.

mephitix 9y ago
They need to hit their immediate goal of 2,500/week by end of Q1 - see the last chart on that page. They didn't move this goal in the Q4 earnings call, which was surprising - but if this tracker is accurate the production curve seems to be on track. They are also planning to bring in a fully automated assembly line being shipped from Europe, in March. Assuming nothing goes wrong there it is supposed to accelerate production even more.
- lettergram 9y ago
  > assuming nothing goes wrong Yeah, hopefully they didn't make that assumption... Can't imagine debugging a whole assembly line (even a virtual one in a game like factorio is hell at the beginning)
  - valkum 9y ago
    Except this one was already build and tested in Germany iirc. It should be debugged and taken apart into modular pieces and sent to Tesla. I assume installing these modules should be easier than debugging an assembly line in factorio ;)
    - gmueckl 9y ago
      Don't underestimate the innate human ability to fuck up what appears to be a simple job :). There will be delays and deviation from a best case schedule.
9y ago

glaberficken 9y ago

Really curious about what the production bottlenecks are for the Model 3. Is it batteries? Would be thankful to anyone able to point me to further info on this =)

Parcissons 9y ago
Im in industry automatization- and its usually that the production is a linear problem- in a tree of linear problems. Meaning any station in the production may show problems after the start. These come in 3 categorys- full stop (machine breaks/quality so bad production cant continue), solvable (machine can produce at reduced rate) - and hidden (quality problem shows down the line). Hidden are the meanest problems, because you have to traverse back up the tree to the producer of the problem- solve the problem, which may result in new problems - migrating back down the production line. Try to not see it as a binary problem of release- not release, but more of a very complex longterm graph traversing problem.
- deleted 9y ago
  [deleted]
- cagenut 9y ago
  By any chance to you have any good links or books on this kind of thing? So much of continuous deployment winds up sounding remarkably like things industrial automation already has language and studies for.
kuschku 9y ago
The bottleneck is automation. Tesla is still producing cars completely manually. This is why Musk bought the automation company Grohmann. But after he demanded they work 100h weeks (instead of their previous 35h weeks), and said unions would be unnecessary, almost the entire company quit and left. That's the current bottleneck, automation of assembly.
- gmueckl 9y ago
  Grohmann is a German company. Having employees work more than 40 or 50 hours a week on a regular basis is hard to defend legally. Employee protection is pretty strict about that. Heck, even working more than 10 hours straight is borderline illegal and puts the boss (not the employee) in very hot water. So I can hardly believe that 100h per week were actually demanded.

jl6 9y ago

Saved you a click: 8357 (estimated)

Hamuko 9y ago
If that's all you want out of the article, might as well not even click on the comments section.
- jl6 9y ago
  I always click on the HN comments first, whenever an article title has even a hint of clickbait to it, and I am nearly always well rewarded for it.

flexie 9y ago

This is for once a great article about Tesla that is neither too critical, nor too rosy. They actually do some intelligent estimations instead of just going with whatever anonymous "analysts" or "experts" in the financial markets say. It's a real issue for Tesla if they don't figure out how to build 500,000 cars per year within the next 2-3 years because then they open up a flank for the traditional car manufacturers who probably need 3-4 years before they can market EVs that can compare in specs with model 3, most notably on range. At around 200 miles/320 km, an EV has a range that makes it suitable as a second car for the masses (as opposed to the passionate enthusiasts that might buy in already at 100 miles or less). 200 miles is enough for driving around the city. Currently, the Tesla models, Chevrolet Bolt, Renault Zoe, the new Nissan Leafs, and Opel Ampera, have such ranges. This is the range segment that the traditional car manufacturers are likely to open their first real bids for competitive EVs in from this year and through the next 3-4 years. Tesla can live with that since the segment is insufficient for the masses. Average Joe will not buy an electric car with a 200 mile range. Ever. At around 300 miles/480 km, an EV could be a real primary car if you live in regions with sufficient charging stations. Currently, only the larger Teslas and Model 3 are there. This is where Average Joe starts to buy. But the larger Teslas are too expensive for Average Joe. As for model 3, it can hardly be called a car for the masses until it is produced for the masses. And therein lies the problem. If Tesla doesn't nail this range segment for higher end of the medium priced cars produced at scale in the next 2-3 years, some of the traditional car manufacturers may catch up. Don't forget that even if Tesla reaches 350,000 cars in 2019, which is still a big if, they still leave most of the chips at the table. They will have to go way beyond 1M cars yearly to really close the upper medium price range for the traditional manufacturers. Even 500,000 cars would leave most of the market for a handful of it's competitors. And it would require one or two more Giga Factories to reach a million, which they haven't started to build yet. As for the lower priced cars, Tesla is not there yet, and the traditional car manufacturers may well get there before Tesla if they get to experiment for 4-5 years with the medium priced cars without loosing too much money. So Tesla really needs to hurry. Around 400 miles/640 km, range is no longer an issue for almost any buyer. The few exceptions are buyers in rural areas or buyers that need to commute very far to and from work every day in cold weather or in mountain regions. A 100 mile commute to work in subzero temperatures, and/or in mountain regions would mean that you would have to be very sure that your car is fully charged every day, which would be too much of a hassle. But apart from such edge cases, most people could skip charging for a full working week and still use a car with 400 miles range for commutes. And on road trips, they could drive as far as is comfortable anyways, and if once every few years they needed to drive further than 400 miles, they would likely have passed several charging stations on the way. Currently, no cars are there, but Tesla will likely be first in this segment with the larger models S and X, quite possibly within 1-2 years. Those cars are not for the masses. It's not unreasonable to believe though, that model 3 will have such range in 3-4 years. At 500 miles/800 km, the range issue is solved for 99 percent of potential buyers in the modern world. Tesla claims its new Roadster will have such range. It is still to be seen whether that is true, but anyways, that car is not for the masses. But maybe in 7-10 years, this will be standard in the smaller Teslas...

mixmastamyk 9y ago

Is that right they are encouraging people to record VINs and post them to a website? Creepy.

sowbug 9y ago
The potential creepiness is worse than that. VINs follow a specific algorithmic format, so it's actually possible to make a website with all VINs!
- mixmastamyk 9y ago
  Same with credit card numbers, doesn't mean you'd want it tracked on a third-party website.
- lawnchair_larry 9y ago
  And SSNs!
s2g 9y ago
why?

Animats 9y ago

Automobile final assembly lines produce about one car per minute. About 2400 per week for one shift. Some are slightly slower or faster, but not by a lot. It's common to run two production shifts, but not three; one shift is needed for line maintenance. 1,000 per week indicates the production line is running, but having problems. This is much better than the few hundred per week from December, which meant hand assembly. One line should top out at 2 shifts, about 5000 vehicles per day, or about 100,000 per year. Then add a second production line. If you really want to find out what's going on in Tesla's plant, find a United Auto Workers organizer in a bar in Fremont and buy him a few beers.

reificator 9y ago
If you ever want to get a feel for designing a plant that produces a car every minute, I highly suggest taking a look at Factorio. It's a little abstracted and a little gamey, but the core feel is there, and I very much enjoy the logistics of it. https://www.factorio.com https://www.factorio.com
- tehsauce 9y ago
  Factorio is probably the most satisfying game I've ever played. Amazingly challenging but has a wonderful feeling of accomplishment when building things. Don't mind the graphics, it's a lot of fun :)
- froindt 9y ago
  I'm an industrial engineer who also plays factorio. It does a really good job of teaching some of the core parts of running a factory. * what happens when there are supply chain hiccups? * how much inventory do I want? Converting too much iron to steel will waste resources. What is the right mix? * where is my bottleneck? Making anything else faster doesn't matter for overall production. * every process has different time, space, and energy requirements. Running off of entirely electricity or fossil fuels both have pros and cons. I've thought a bit about how it could be used to teach students in the classroom. It would be nice to have UI counters on the machines and setup a small factory. The concept of quality would also be a cool extension. It's also just fun to look at the resources required to build a product from raw source. In real life the concept still applies - 10 lbs of ore will be a fraction of that once refined and a small fraction of that once formed and milled into a desk widget.

ppbutt 9y ago

Anybody else worried/cautious about giving a company even more data about one's location, driving habits, etc. (also, without that company sharing that data with the user whose data it is) - also, knowing that the company is truly in control of the vehicle? I'm all for renewable energy and electric vehicles, but it could be done without selling the user.

toephu2 9y ago
Do you use credit cards?
SEJeff 9y ago
From https://www.tesla.com/about/legal https://www.tesla.com/about/legal: """If you no longer wish us to collect Telematics Log Data or any other data from your Tesla vehicle, please contact us as indicated in the “How to Contact Us” section below. Please note that, if you opt out from the collection of Telematics Log Data or any other data from your Tesla vehicle (with the exception of the Data Sharing setting detailed above), we will not be able to notify you of issues applicable to your vehicle in real time, and this may result in your vehicle suffering from reduced functionality, serious damage, or inoperability, and it may also disable many features of your vehicle including periodic software and firmware updates, remote services, and interactivity with mobile applications and in-car features such as location search, Internet radio, voice commands, and web browser functionality."""
m3kw9 9y ago
Do you use the internet without stuff like Tor?

rdl 9y ago

Why not just put a camera or other sensing system outside their one plant? (People already do this using satellite photos of walmart parking lots, etc. to get advance information about holiday sales.)

bvod 9y ago
Who does this and do you have a source? It would be interesting to learn more
- supercanuck 9y ago
  This is an example of a firm that does this sort of thing in the O&G industry. https://www.clipperdata.com/ https://www.clipperdata.com/
- rdl 9y ago
  https://www.theverge.com/2016/8/4/12369494/descartes-artificial-intelligence-crop-predictions-usda https://www.theverge.com/2016/8/4/12369494/descartes-artific... https://www.wsj.com/articles/startups-mine-market-moving-data-from-fields-parking-lotseven-shadows-1416502993 https://www.wsj.com/articles/startups-mine-market-moving-dat... https://www.cnbc.com/id/38722872 https://www.cnbc.com/id/38722872