4 ms·

Give us the dirt on this one!

teej 9y ago
There's nothing shocking and I think that bodes very very well for Dropbox. It looks like a solid foundation with great growth. The standouts to me were - * They cut costs on an absolute and relative basis for the last two years. This is fantastic and I hope the trend continues. * I don't understand how the $112 ARPU number foots with their pricing. They are telling a story that "teams" is driving growth but on the surface that's not reflected in the ARPU number. There's some sort of promotional discounting that's happening that isn't exposed here. I hope that they are aggressively managing their promo strategy internally because unchecked it can tank a whole company (see GAP). * No idea where they expect new users to come from given they have 500M accounts. Presumably people have 2+ dropbox accounts (personal + work). I'm interested to know how many unique active users dropbox has.
- pvg 9y ago
  What keeps them from making money (asking, not being facetious)?
  - teej 9y ago
    If they maintain the current trend of lowering costs, keeping headcount growth in line with revenue, and continuing to achieve economies of scale in sales and marketing then they will show a profit in the next couple of years. They don't promise any of this in the S-1 because they need to be extremely conservative in their statements to the public. To be honest I'm not super familiar with the comps to know how good or bad their numbers are relative to others. But just from their own reporting they look like they are on track. That's not by accident. It's very likely that constructing this trend has been a major focus for the company in the last few years.
- ceejayoz 9y ago
  > Presumably people have 2+ dropbox accounts (personal + work). I'd imagine there's quite a few with dozens, as they offer more space (up to a bit over 30 referrals) if you refer new users. I remember "referring" myself with a new email address whenever I'd need an extra 250 MB.
- jonwachob91 9y ago
  >> No idea where they expect new users to come from given they have 500M accounts. 500M accounts, but only 11M paying users.

teej 9y ago

There's nothing shocking and I think that bodes very very well for Dropbox. It looks like a solid foundation with great growth. The standouts to me were - * They cut costs on an absolute and relative basis for the last two years. This is fantastic and I hope the trend continues. * I don't understand how the $112 ARPU number foots with their pricing. They are telling a story that "teams" is driving growth but on the surface that's not reflected in the ARPU number. There's some sort of promotional discounting that's happening that isn't exposed here. I hope that they are aggressively managing their promo strategy internally because unchecked it can tank a whole company (see GAP). * No idea where they expect new users to come from given they have 500M accounts. Presumably people have 2+ dropbox accounts (personal + work). I'm interested to know how many unique active users dropbox has.

pvg 9y ago
What keeps them from making money (asking, not being facetious)?
- teej 9y ago
  If they maintain the current trend of lowering costs, keeping headcount growth in line with revenue, and continuing to achieve economies of scale in sales and marketing then they will show a profit in the next couple of years. They don't promise any of this in the S-1 because they need to be extremely conservative in their statements to the public. To be honest I'm not super familiar with the comps to know how good or bad their numbers are relative to others. But just from their own reporting they look like they are on track. That's not by accident. It's very likely that constructing this trend has been a major focus for the company in the last few years.
ceejayoz 9y ago
> Presumably people have 2+ dropbox accounts (personal + work). I'd imagine there's quite a few with dozens, as they offer more space (up to a bit over 30 referrals) if you refer new users. I remember "referring" myself with a new email address whenever I'd need an extra 250 MB.
jonwachob91 9y ago
>> No idea where they expect new users to come from given they have 500M accounts. 500M accounts, but only 11M paying users.