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However, you can see how an optical-based system should in theory work because all our roads and signs are designed based on that assumption and has never assum

However, you can see how an optical-based system should in theory work because all our roads and signs are designed based on that assumption and has never assumed LIDAR. If a human can do it optically, one can reason, so should a machine. That said, I think Tesla is making a big assumption about human optical systems and object recognition and our current ability to replicate it. One of the things my undergraduate classes in AI taught me is that people tend to underestimate the sophistication and complexity of human neuro/cognitive systems. We are only consciously made aware of the simplified end results but are often unaware of the complexity of the underlying sub-systems.

Fricken 9y ago
Yeah, I would never argue that an optical system won't ever work, I believe it will work someday. While the best optical/radar have shown alright capabilities in a demonstration capacity in straightforward driving situations, they're nowhere near having the kind of redundancy needed to safely remove a human from the driving task altogether. With Waymo's robotaxis, who are the closest to a pilot commercial deployment, they spare no expense, they're riddled with sensors, they have giant computers in the trunk, there's an air-gapped backup computer that can take the vehicle to a minimal risk condition should the primary fail. They are maintenance intensive and require careful maintenance and oversight; Waymo (and GM) are building call centres filled with remote human monitors who can intervene when the vehicles get hung up, and they're geo-fenced. They are far away from being cheap enough or idiot-proof enough to put in the hands of private owners. Assuming Tesla sticks to it's guns, I'm thinking maybe in 2025 we can revisit that and see how far Tesla has come towards full autonomy. During the Waymo vs. Uber trial Judge Alsup asked Waymo CEO John Krafcik if Tesla uses Lidar. "Not yet" he replied.

Fricken 9y ago

Yeah, I would never argue that an optical system won't ever work, I believe it will work someday. While the best optical/radar have shown alright capabilities in a demonstration capacity in straightforward driving situations, they're nowhere near having the kind of redundancy needed to safely remove a human from the driving task altogether. With Waymo's robotaxis, who are the closest to a pilot commercial deployment, they spare no expense, they're riddled with sensors, they have giant computers in the trunk, there's an air-gapped backup computer that can take the vehicle to a minimal risk condition should the primary fail. They are maintenance intensive and require careful maintenance and oversight; Waymo (and GM) are building call centres filled with remote human monitors who can intervene when the vehicles get hung up, and they're geo-fenced. They are far away from being cheap enough or idiot-proof enough to put in the hands of private owners. Assuming Tesla sticks to it's guns, I'm thinking maybe in 2025 we can revisit that and see how far Tesla has come towards full autonomy. During the Waymo vs. Uber trial Judge Alsup asked Waymo CEO John Krafcik if Tesla uses Lidar. "Not yet" he replied.