5 ms·
I'm sorry, but this article just seems bizarre. It's not economically literate - it doesn't actually examine the cost of a house relative to earnings and access
by slivym 9y ago
I'm sorry, but this article just seems bizarre. It's not economically literate - it doesn't actually examine the cost of a house relative to earnings and access to mortgages. It doesn't make any attempt to quantify how much money foreign entities actually invest in London. It doesn't cite any evidence that prices have even started to drop!
Let me tackle this. Firstly, interest rates are still at historic lows, it's cheaper to buy a house and pay the mortgage than to rent, so that core reason to buy is still there. The only limit is deposits. The government has just handed £5k to every first time buyer in London (stamp duty cut). That's not going to cause lower prices.
Foreign investment doesn't come from Saudi Arabia, it comes from Hong Kong and Singapore and Malaysia.[0] So his entire argument there is just misinformed.
None of the evidence he sighted actually points to a price crash now - it points to long term pressures for prices to drop. You could have made that argument 5 years ago.
Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying house prices won't drop at some point. This just doesn't argue it at all well. It's more wishful and wishy washy thinking that anything else.
There are far better arguments that the prices will drop in 2019/2020 - when interest rates recover, buy-to-let investors will get stung by harsher taxes and Brexit actually happens.
[0] https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/jun/13/foreign-investors-snapping-up-london-homes-suitable-for-first-time-buyers https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/jun/13/foreign-inve...