You get paid 3.13% every year. So you are getting paid closer to 94% for making that assumption. Plus you get some of the 94% paid out early, so if you were wro

You get paid 3.13% every year. So you are getting paid closer to 94% for making that assumption. Plus you get some of the 94% paid out early, so if you were wrong about there being no terrible upheaval, you still got something out of it (hopefully you didn't reinvest the interest in more Treasuries, or keep it in cash). So even when you put it like that - the odds don't seem too bad.