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If there was a way to collect on it, I'd bet good money there won't be space pirates in the next hundred years. Without some sort of fundamental (and I do mean

If there was a way to collect on it, I'd bet good money there won't be space pirates in the next hundred years. Without some sort of fundamental (and I do mean fundamental) advance in propulsion technology, the notion of humans being a multi-planetary species is a joke.

sosborn 9y ago
Who says they have to be human?
LeifCarrotson 9y ago
I also agree that space pirates are not a next-hundred-years problem...but disagree that with existing propulsion technology (or incremental, ordinary improvements on it in the next hundred years) we cannot become multi-planetary in the next hundred years. Space piracy implies a rogue individual or group grabbing stuff in space and selling it on the black market for profit. I completely agree that's next to impossible. 17th-century piracy on the high seas relied on widely shared seafaring expertise, many potential customers and victims, and an ease of entry that's just not present in space. But we've had people in space on the ISS continuously for more than a decade now, we landed on the moon half a century ago, and it's all getting constantly cheaper and easier. I would be shocked and disappointed (moreso than I already am in our abandonment of the moon) if we didn't have a Mars base in a century.
- tardo99 9y ago
  I can't imagine a Mars base being useful in any meaningful way (aside from _maybe_ some sort of esoteric scientific utility) without reducing the transit time between the planets to at most a few days.
  - megaman22 9y ago
    If a compelling economic reason arises, travel times under current technology aren't unreasonable. In the age of sail, whalers and merchants routinely went on even multiyear voyages. There are other life-support challenges to surmount, but then again, we'll probably end up with robotic spacecraft anyway doing long haul routes, and that becomes more moot.
- the8472 9y ago
  17th century piracy with people boarding spaceships or capturing satellites? Probably not. But how about hacking of satellites built with insecure off the shelf components? The IoT. In space. This gets even more interesting once someone builds an insecure satellite tug. The first group to hack one can threaten other satellites within the tug's reach.
- ethbro 9y ago
  We've got plenty of people willing to risk their lives for a chance at riches. We've got technology that's making it borderline cost effective to survive in space. ... we're only missing in-space mining and manufacturing (at least of the basics). The cost of launching all of the above from the Earth's surface is what's killing the economics. And ironically, there's a fairly accurate parallel to the resource- and legal- 16th century Caribbean.
thaumaturgy 9y ago
Today, we have this: http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_CEZblkf9NKw/TN_LssuYPHI/AAAAAAAAABw/OOWfw4Vn8sg/s1600/a380.jpg http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_CEZblkf9NKw/TN_LssuYPHI/AAAAAAAAAB... [Airbus A380] 100 years ago, we had this: http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-2u1lGwe_Jf8/TwW1lxbBrtI/AAAAAAAAJ7A/Zszdy8dn1LA/s1600/Ford-Model-T-1.jpg http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-2u1lGwe_Jf8/TwW1lxbBrtI/AAAAAAAAJ7... [Ford Model T] 100 years before that, was: http://animalpetdoctor.homestead.com/1800horsebuggy.jpg http://animalpetdoctor.homestead.com/1800horsebuggy.jpg [1800s horse and buggy] 100 years before that, was: https://i.pinimg.com/236x/b5/46/5b/b5465bb591ec882f187d5b3d8fd8c83e.jpg https://i.pinimg.com/236x/b5/46/5b/b5465bb591ec882f187d5b3d8... [horse] 100 years before that, was: [horse] 100 years before that, was: [also horse] etc. 100 years seems like a very long time to humans, but each century has seen continued exponential progress in transportation technology. Where you see a joke, I see a certainty -- barring of course some unforeseen massive catastrophe.
- baq 9y ago
  the problem with exponential growth is that it can't last given finite resources or finite space. the question is when the inflection point to the second part of the sigmoid is.
  - dwaltrip 9y ago
    This is why we will most certainly expand out into the solar system in the coming centuries. There are immense energy sources and resource deposits available.
- sillysaurus3 9y ago
  It's not exponential, it's sigmoidal. Technological progress is slowing down and becoming more specialized. Most of what we have today we also had 25 years ago, if you ignore electronics.
  - MPSimmons 9y ago
    > if you ignore electronics. And materials science. And medical science. And probably several other things I'm not thinking of right now. The truth is that the electronics you mentioned are a force multiplier. It's like saying 4,000 years ago, we had everything we had in the immediate pre-renaissance. The math was the enabler that gave us the ability to exceed what we had. Electronics (and the things that go along with it, such as the software to run it) are what allow us to move vast swaths of other tech forward. We are still limited by physics, and we won't ever find ways to circumvent physics, but we'll find ways to not have to circumvent physics.
trevyn 9y ago
Sorry, what? There are obviously a lot of massive challenges to overcome, but how is today’s propulsion technology specifically a limiting factor to being a multi-planetary species?
- tardo99 9y ago
  Because if you travel in interstellar space for long enough, you are almost certain to experience problematic levels of DNA damage and get cancer.
  - the8472 9y ago
    There are additional planetary bodies in the solar system and it is probably easier (relatively speaking) to build a sustainable habitat on one than building a completely self-sustaining inter-stellar spaceship.
  - dwaltrip 9y ago
    The technology exists today to provide adequate shielding... Hell, as I recall, a simple buffer of several feet of water surrounding the living quarters would do the trick.
  - trevyn 9y ago
    You don't need to travel through interstellar space to get to Mars.
samplatt 9y ago
I think it depends what you want to call a "pirate". I feel that some material and energy collection will be able to be automated, and the corporations will be able to steal from each other and so will do so given the opportunity.

sosborn 9y ago

Who says they have to be human?

LeifCarrotson 9y ago

I also agree that space pirates are not a next-hundred-years problem...but disagree that with existing propulsion technology (or incremental, ordinary improvements on it in the next hundred years) we cannot become multi-planetary in the next hundred years. Space piracy implies a rogue individual or group grabbing stuff in space and selling it on the black market for profit. I completely agree that's next to impossible. 17th-century piracy on the high seas relied on widely shared seafaring expertise, many potential customers and victims, and an ease of entry that's just not present in space. But we've had people in space on the ISS continuously for more than a decade now, we landed on the moon half a century ago, and it's all getting constantly cheaper and easier. I would be shocked and disappointed (moreso than I already am in our abandonment of the moon) if we didn't have a Mars base in a century.

tardo99 9y ago
I can't imagine a Mars base being useful in any meaningful way (aside from _maybe_ some sort of esoteric scientific utility) without reducing the transit time between the planets to at most a few days.
- megaman22 9y ago
  If a compelling economic reason arises, travel times under current technology aren't unreasonable. In the age of sail, whalers and merchants routinely went on even multiyear voyages. There are other life-support challenges to surmount, but then again, we'll probably end up with robotic spacecraft anyway doing long haul routes, and that becomes more moot.
the8472 9y ago
17th century piracy with people boarding spaceships or capturing satellites? Probably not. But how about hacking of satellites built with insecure off the shelf components? The IoT. In space. This gets even more interesting once someone builds an insecure satellite tug. The first group to hack one can threaten other satellites within the tug's reach.
ethbro 9y ago
We've got plenty of people willing to risk their lives for a chance at riches. We've got technology that's making it borderline cost effective to survive in space. ... we're only missing in-space mining and manufacturing (at least of the basics). The cost of launching all of the above from the Earth's surface is what's killing the economics. And ironically, there's a fairly accurate parallel to the resource- and legal- 16th century Caribbean.

thaumaturgy 9y ago

Today, we have this: http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_CEZblkf9NKw/TN_LssuYPHI/AAAAAAAAABw/OOWfw4Vn8sg/s1600/a380.jpg http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_CEZblkf9NKw/TN_LssuYPHI/AAAAAAAAAB... [Airbus A380] 100 years ago, we had this: http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-2u1lGwe_Jf8/TwW1lxbBrtI/AAAAAAAAJ7A/Zszdy8dn1LA/s1600/Ford-Model-T-1.jpg http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-2u1lGwe_Jf8/TwW1lxbBrtI/AAAAAAAAJ7... [Ford Model T] 100 years before that, was: http://animalpetdoctor.homestead.com/1800horsebuggy.jpg http://animalpetdoctor.homestead.com/1800horsebuggy.jpg [1800s horse and buggy] 100 years before that, was: https://i.pinimg.com/236x/b5/46/5b/b5465bb591ec882f187d5b3d8fd8c83e.jpg https://i.pinimg.com/236x/b5/46/5b/b5465bb591ec882f187d5b3d8... [horse] 100 years before that, was: [horse] 100 years before that, was: [also horse] etc. 100 years seems like a very long time to humans, but each century has seen continued exponential progress in transportation technology. Where you see a joke, I see a certainty -- barring of course some unforeseen massive catastrophe.

baq 9y ago
the problem with exponential growth is that it can't last given finite resources or finite space. the question is when the inflection point to the second part of the sigmoid is.
- dwaltrip 9y ago
  This is why we will most certainly expand out into the solar system in the coming centuries. There are immense energy sources and resource deposits available.
sillysaurus3 9y ago
It's not exponential, it's sigmoidal. Technological progress is slowing down and becoming more specialized. Most of what we have today we also had 25 years ago, if you ignore electronics.
- MPSimmons 9y ago
  > if you ignore electronics. And materials science. And medical science. And probably several other things I'm not thinking of right now. The truth is that the electronics you mentioned are a force multiplier. It's like saying 4,000 years ago, we had everything we had in the immediate pre-renaissance. The math was the enabler that gave us the ability to exceed what we had. Electronics (and the things that go along with it, such as the software to run it) are what allow us to move vast swaths of other tech forward. We are still limited by physics, and we won't ever find ways to circumvent physics, but we'll find ways to not have to circumvent physics.

trevyn 9y ago

Sorry, what? There are obviously a lot of massive challenges to overcome, but how is today’s propulsion technology specifically a limiting factor to being a multi-planetary species?

tardo99 9y ago
Because if you travel in interstellar space for long enough, you are almost certain to experience problematic levels of DNA damage and get cancer.
- the8472 9y ago
  There are additional planetary bodies in the solar system and it is probably easier (relatively speaking) to build a sustainable habitat on one than building a completely self-sustaining inter-stellar spaceship.
- dwaltrip 9y ago
  The technology exists today to provide adequate shielding... Hell, as I recall, a simple buffer of several feet of water surrounding the living quarters would do the trick.
- trevyn 9y ago
  You don't need to travel through interstellar space to get to Mars.

samplatt 9y ago

I think it depends what you want to call a "pirate". I feel that some material and energy collection will be able to be automated, and the corporations will be able to steal from each other and so will do so given the opportunity.