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> I imagine self driving trucks will be priced with the cost savings over decades of driverless service in mind. That's certainly not what I would expect to ha

by jlebar 9y ago

> I imagine self driving trucks will be priced with the cost savings over decades of driverless service in mind. That's certainly not what I would expect to happen in the long run in a competitive market. For example -- in the early days of computing, I would believe you if you told me that computers had a high premium, reflecting the work savings computers offered. But these days computers are certainly not priced to reflect their cost savings. They're priced to reflect supply and demand. Indeed, computers (or, say, cars) have become so ubiquitous that to talk about their marginal cost savings relative to the alternative is kind of meaningless. Imagine a world where self-driving cars are in the same category. I think it's coming, and soon.

BoorishBears 9y ago
What indication is there that they’re coming soon, or that commercial applications will be commoditized? Commercial technology generally reflects cost savings to this day. Technology can run your assembly line at X units per day costs more if X is high, and even more if less people are involved in making X. It’s just technology got cheaper as a whole. But I don’t think self-driving trucks will ever be that much cheaper since the computing power they use is on the same waning cost curve that brought us cheap computing today, and even if it does get exponentially cheap, the duty cycle of commercial applications will prevent savings from trickling down to commercial vehicles quickly (Just compare depreciation on normal cars vs big rigs). All that being said, it’s intresting how quickly most people I see talk about this have gone from thinking about safety wins of self-driving cars to how much easier it will make driving. I think we’re headed for something ruinous if self-driving cars do come out and instead of solving the problem of excessive vehicles despite them, we all start thinking of fanciful new ways to constantly have more vehicles on the road.
- jlebar 9y ago
  What indication is there that [self-driving cars are] coming soon Not to be glib, but TFA? or that commercial applications will be commoditized? There are many companies working on specifically this. I find it hard to imagine an uncompetitive market, but you're right, that could happen. Commercial technology generally reflects cost savings to this day. I guess I sort of agree with you, but the question is "cost savings as compared to what?" Tractors aren't priced according to cost savings compared to oxen. The most someone can charge is the cost savings of their device compared to the next best alternative. So tractors are priced relative to the value they add as compared to other tractors. We should expect something similar in a competitive market for self-driving trucks. But I don’t think self-driving trucks will ever be that much cheaper since the computing power they use is on the same waning cost curve that brought us cheap computing today If self-driving cars are commercially feasible in this way, surely self-driving trucks are, since one truck carries a lot more stuff (economically speaking) than one car. Also transistor counts are still going up, see GPUs. And this sort of thing is amenable to ASICs. And we can already pack sufficient compute into a van. And the computers aren't even the most expensive part -- "laser is the sauce". and even if it does get exponentially cheap, the duty cycle of commercial applications will prevent savings from trickling down to commercial vehicles quickly (Just compare depreciation on normal cars vs big rigs). I don't understand your point here, but note that one important way that self-driving trucks deliver value is by dramatically increasing the duty cycle of the vehicles. All that being said, it’s intresting how quickly most people I see talk about this have gone from thinking about safety wins of self-driving cars to how much easier it will make driving. I think we’re headed for something ruinous if self-driving cars do come out and instead of solving the problem of excessive vehicles despite them, we all start thinking of fanciful new ways to constantly have more vehicles on the road. Strong agree on this part.
- fastball 9y ago
  Tesla has already developed an electric semi that will probably be self-driving in the near future. It's priced at under $200k. That's definitely cheaper than paying multiple people to drive me around 24/7.

by jlebar 9y ago

BoorishBears 9y ago

What indication is there that they’re coming soon, or that commercial applications will be commoditized? Commercial technology generally reflects cost savings to this day. Technology can run your assembly line at X units per day costs more if X is high, and even more if less people are involved in making X. It’s just technology got cheaper as a whole. But I don’t think self-driving trucks will ever be that much cheaper since the computing power they use is on the same waning cost curve that brought us cheap computing today, and even if it does get exponentially cheap, the duty cycle of commercial applications will prevent savings from trickling down to commercial vehicles quickly (Just compare depreciation on normal cars vs big rigs). All that being said, it’s intresting how quickly most people I see talk about this have gone from thinking about safety wins of self-driving cars to how much easier it will make driving. I think we’re headed for something ruinous if self-driving cars do come out and instead of solving the problem of excessive vehicles despite them, we all start thinking of fanciful new ways to constantly have more vehicles on the road.

jlebar 9y ago
What indication is there that [self-driving cars are] coming soon Not to be glib, but TFA? or that commercial applications will be commoditized? There are many companies working on specifically this. I find it hard to imagine an uncompetitive market, but you're right, that could happen. Commercial technology generally reflects cost savings to this day. I guess I sort of agree with you, but the question is "cost savings as compared to what?" Tractors aren't priced according to cost savings compared to oxen. The most someone can charge is the cost savings of their device compared to the next best alternative. So tractors are priced relative to the value they add as compared to other tractors. We should expect something similar in a competitive market for self-driving trucks. But I don’t think self-driving trucks will ever be that much cheaper since the computing power they use is on the same waning cost curve that brought us cheap computing today If self-driving cars are commercially feasible in this way, surely self-driving trucks are, since one truck carries a lot more stuff (economically speaking) than one car. Also transistor counts are still going up, see GPUs. And this sort of thing is amenable to ASICs. And we can already pack sufficient compute into a van. And the computers aren't even the most expensive part -- "laser is the sauce". and even if it does get exponentially cheap, the duty cycle of commercial applications will prevent savings from trickling down to commercial vehicles quickly (Just compare depreciation on normal cars vs big rigs). I don't understand your point here, but note that one important way that self-driving trucks deliver value is by dramatically increasing the duty cycle of the vehicles. All that being said, it’s intresting how quickly most people I see talk about this have gone from thinking about safety wins of self-driving cars to how much easier it will make driving. I think we’re headed for something ruinous if self-driving cars do come out and instead of solving the problem of excessive vehicles despite them, we all start thinking of fanciful new ways to constantly have more vehicles on the road. Strong agree on this part.
fastball 9y ago
Tesla has already developed an electric semi that will probably be self-driving in the near future. It's priced at under $200k. That's definitely cheaper than paying multiple people to drive me around 24/7.