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The author laments the rarity, excellence and thus dominance of companies like Amazon, although this article could have been about Apple or Google too. Rather
by peoplewindow 9y ago
The author laments the rarity, excellence and thus dominance of companies like Amazon, although this article could have been about Apple or Google too.
Rather than ponder to what extent if any government regulation is the answer, it'd be better to ask why Amazon is so dominant and why competitors have such a difficult time competing.
This isn't specific to Amazon. "Disruption" is a word that has come to mean tech firms, which we can roughly define as firms founded by computer programmers that make heavy use of computers, entering a new market and rapidly out competing the incumbents. These firms start with no particular competitive advantage and frequently have major disadvantages. When Bezos started selling books he had no knowledge of the books business, no warehouses, no logistics operation, no business relationships and no capital beyond his own savings and $300k his parents invested in the business. His only edge was that Bezos had a computer science education and knew programming. Despite starting with literally nothing, Amazon now controls most of the entire book sales market. There was a story on HN recently about how Barnes and Noble is basically giving up and laying off employees.
Same thing for Steve Jobs and phones or Google and mapping. All relatively mature industries, all obliterated the incumbents (well, in phones the incumbents only survived by adopting Android wholesale). But Amazon is the best example because retail is such an old and established industry.
I've come to think that a big part of this is down to the different way programmers think, vs regular 'business people'. Any of the existing retail giants could have built an Amazon. Bezos didn't have any unique eureka-moment patent or other moat. And they all started way ahead of him in having warehouses and distribution networks. But they didn't, they never successfully did that, I don't think they ever could, because they were run by people who weren't software developers.
There are two big parts to this:
1. Understanding software projects and software developers.
2. Clarity, precision and energy of thought.
(1) is obvious enough, people with a business background can't judge the skill of developers or quality of software directly so they have to rely heavily on proxies that aren't very good - things like "is this project hitting its projected deadlines" which projects never do, or "what are other companies doing" which creates herd behaviour and eliminates edge, or "is this solution backed by IBM or Microsoft". They tend to make basic errors like saying, well this company over in India says they'll write the software we need for 1/10th the cost of our own development team, and software is software so that's a great saving! And they don't understand the vast gulf in skills and quality of the possible outcomes, or how critical quality tech is to their business.
(2) is more controversial, but I can't escape the feeling that programmers tend to think a lot more clearly and rigorously than many business people. Writing software demands intense focus and concentration for long periods, very precise thinking, and computers cannot tolerate internally inconsistent thinking. Way too many people simply cannot or will not actually think things through in detail. Their thinking is often vague, contradictory, shallow and they are constantly looking for clever ways to get out of thinking at all, like by outsourcing their thought to consultants or repeating buzzwords they don't really understand (IoT, AI etc).
I'm not arguing that programmers are incapable of self delusion, woolly thinking or anything like that - I've seen plenty of dumb behaviour from supposedly smart people. It's more like maybe they can do it, if they are reasonably free of biases and are given enough time and are motivated enough.
But if it's true that programming improves your general capacity for thought then we should expect to see tech firms systematically out-compete every firm in which the playing field is level and not radically tipped in favour of incumbents by regulators and governments. Retail is not very regulated so no surprise that Amazon is systematically taking over.
Edit: SpaceX is a better example of Amazon-style disruption than Apple. Musk went from knowing computer programming and nothing about space at all, to radically disrupting the existing aerospace industry with reusable rockets, in less than 20 years.
- 20180201 9y agoi wouldn't say that you're wrong per se, but maybe a bit too generous to the narrowly defined class of "software developer". plenty of other fields employ the same class of cognitively elite individuals. off the top of my head: * lawyers and accountants and some types of financial professionals * aerospace engineers, rocket scientists, defense engineers * physicists, chemical engineers, mechanical engineers etc. many of these people also write software as part of their job, at a more-than-competent level, while i don't think your average software engineer could do their job in any capacity whatsoever after i.e. 10 years of experience of just writing code.
- peoplewindow 9y agoBut why do those people not found companies like Amazon? When was the last time the CEOs of existing companies feared disruption by a firm founded by an accountant? Why was the United Launch Alliance apparently so helpless in the face of SpaceX despite ULA being made of experienced industry old hands and Musk having to literally teach himself rocket science as a first step? many of these people also write software as part of their job, at a more-than-competent level Really? Have you ever seen code written by mechanical engineers or accountants? I have! My experience is that an experienced programmer working inside a large enterprise will have a much firmer grasp of the business than the business-side people will have of software development.
- sah2ed 9y agoOccam's razor applies. I think there is a much simpler explanation of why your examples are able to "disrupt" the industries you cite -- those founders felt "with the advances made by mankind, this kind of business idea should exist" then they go out to build such a business and with some luck, they manage to succeed. For every successful Steve Jobs, Jeff Bezos and Elon Musk, there are several competitors (e.g Jean-Louis Gassée/BeOS, Jonathan Bulkeley/B&N and Shai Agassi/Better Place respectively) who failed. Building a successful business like Apple, Amazon or Tesla is much much harder than you are admitting. Programming ability will only get you so far before the unavoidable laws of economics strikes home.
- 9y ago