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It seems that the most "developed" areas in combination with predictable weather gets roll-out first. This means that non-western countries will get them later;

It seems that the most "developed" areas in combination with predictable weather gets roll-out first. This means that non-western countries will get them later; or, depending on the situation, maybe never at all at 100% area coverage. I can totally imagine robotic car software parking right after a the highway intersection and subsequentially handing over driving to a human. Traffic in lesser developed countries may be too complex to ever have self driving cars to ride on.

mtgx 9y ago
And what does that tell us? It tells us that Waymo is nowhere close to "Level 5" or even to the levels Google and the latest cherry-picked "tests" (where they don't count "disengagements" as a problem) would like you to believe it is at. Level 5 is supposed to be virtually perfect self-driving in any environment or on any type of road, for which we haven't even properly tested in simulations yet, let alone in the real-world. I said it before, because of marketing and an incentive to be misleading about their capabilities, "Level 5" will be the "4G" wireless of 2011 (and by that I mean "3G+", in case it wasn't clear). That's actually held true since "Level 2" self-driving. For every level carmakers have been patting themselves on the back for reaching, they're at least one level behind in the real-world. They quickly discover this, too, after trying out their "Level X" cars in the real-world for a while, but they "forget" to tell us about it, after making the big announcement previously, or it doesn't get as much attention in the media. So, I guess I'll wait for Level 6 or Level 7, before I get into one of these. Level 7 will probably be Level 6 cars that actually can't get hacked, unlike all the cars progressing through the previous levels. Carmakers won't even care that much about security and will only prioritize getting to adequate self-driving capabilities first and will "deal with security later", because we all know it's so much easier to fix security issues and redesign architectures later.
- pnut 9y ago
  Meh... Insurance considerations practically guarantee you are statistically safer in one of these vs. a human operated vehicle, and that advantage will only multiply as the ratio of autonomous to human operated vehicles increases. As a resident of a first-world country, it's not really my problem if India needs to wait a few decades or modernize their urban transport infrastructure to see the benefit of this technology. I haven't seen it in person, but the reputation is that Street-level activity in those environments is deadly and chaotic, regardless of whether you are a pedestrian, cyclist, or motorist. Not exactly a situation worth preserving from anyone's perspective...
- achamayou 9y ago
  Much like mileage, emissions, range etc. What’s advertised is what happened in the lab or on the test track.
- xiphias 9y ago
  There's a huge difference in safety between Level 3 and Level 4, but not that much between L4 and L5. Larry's goal was to be safer than human on at least a limited number of paths, and was very patient with it.
- jacksmith21006 9y ago
  With ride sharing you can create a profitable business with level 4. The key is to get the revenue rolling to support the investment to get to level 5 some day down the road.
username223 9y ago
Pretty much. I underestimated how quickly we would see robot cars that drive in straight lines on smooth, well-marked, first-world roads, but I suspect it will be awhile before they venture far out of that context. The developing world's city traffic, and rural roads everywhere, are a bit more complicated, and there's less money out there, so I doubt the robots will be there anytime soon.
harikb 9y ago
I have always imagined the reverse. Countries with less enforced regulations (even if they have them) are the perfect environment to test these things.

mtgx 9y ago

And what does that tell us? It tells us that Waymo is nowhere close to "Level 5" or even to the levels Google and the latest cherry-picked "tests" (where they don't count "disengagements" as a problem) would like you to believe it is at. Level 5 is supposed to be virtually perfect self-driving in any environment or on any type of road, for which we haven't even properly tested in simulations yet, let alone in the real-world. I said it before, because of marketing and an incentive to be misleading about their capabilities, "Level 5" will be the "4G" wireless of 2011 (and by that I mean "3G+", in case it wasn't clear). That's actually held true since "Level 2" self-driving. For every level carmakers have been patting themselves on the back for reaching, they're at least one level behind in the real-world. They quickly discover this, too, after trying out their "Level X" cars in the real-world for a while, but they "forget" to tell us about it, after making the big announcement previously, or it doesn't get as much attention in the media. So, I guess I'll wait for Level 6 or Level 7, before I get into one of these. Level 7 will probably be Level 6 cars that actually can't get hacked, unlike all the cars progressing through the previous levels. Carmakers won't even care that much about security and will only prioritize getting to adequate self-driving capabilities first and will "deal with security later", because we all know it's so much easier to fix security issues and redesign architectures later.

pnut 9y ago
Meh... Insurance considerations practically guarantee you are statistically safer in one of these vs. a human operated vehicle, and that advantage will only multiply as the ratio of autonomous to human operated vehicles increases. As a resident of a first-world country, it's not really my problem if India needs to wait a few decades or modernize their urban transport infrastructure to see the benefit of this technology. I haven't seen it in person, but the reputation is that Street-level activity in those environments is deadly and chaotic, regardless of whether you are a pedestrian, cyclist, or motorist. Not exactly a situation worth preserving from anyone's perspective...
achamayou 9y ago
Much like mileage, emissions, range etc. What’s advertised is what happened in the lab or on the test track.
xiphias 9y ago
There's a huge difference in safety between Level 3 and Level 4, but not that much between L4 and L5. Larry's goal was to be safer than human on at least a limited number of paths, and was very patient with it.
jacksmith21006 9y ago
With ride sharing you can create a profitable business with level 4. The key is to get the revenue rolling to support the investment to get to level 5 some day down the road.

username223 9y ago

Pretty much. I underestimated how quickly we would see robot cars that drive in straight lines on smooth, well-marked, first-world roads, but I suspect it will be awhile before they venture far out of that context. The developing world's city traffic, and rural roads everywhere, are a bit more complicated, and there's less money out there, so I doubt the robots will be there anytime soon.

harikb 9y ago

I have always imagined the reverse. Countries with less enforced regulations (even if they have them) are the perfect environment to test these things.