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Contrarian indicator. There are some excellent investments out there right now that in twenty years will cause people to look back and wish they had made a mov

by d2viant 16y ago

Contrarian indicator. There are some excellent investments out there right now that in twenty years will cause people to look back and wish they had made a move when everyone else was paralyzed with fear. "Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful." -Buffett

hga 16y ago
Well, of course ... but first you have to have the money to invest. That's not true for most Americans, especially since most who do have investments have them in their primary residence and retirement plans, the vast majority of which have taken a significant hit. Then you have to call the bottom, where the adage "Don't try to catch a falling knife" comes into play. A lot of people who bought into the stock market in, say, 1931 lost their shirts. That said, I'm sure there are good and fairly safe asset classes (perhaps the one this forum is dedicated to? :-) to be invested in right now, but it's certainly riskier than "normal". Also, when citing that "in twenty years" hindsight concept don't forget survivorship bias....
tocomment 16y ago
What investments are you speaking of? Have you gotten into any of them?
tansey 16y ago
There were some great investments out there in March of last year. P/E ratios were in the single digits, some companies had fallen by massive amounts but were still solvent. Then the rally came. Ford went from less than $2 a share to more than $10, Seagate went from $3 to $21 (though back down to $11 now). Wells Fargo went from $8 to $32. Those are the great deals people talk about in history books, but they're mostly gone. The last 18 months have seen huge infusions of capital into the market to keep things going. As a result, stocks have bounced back. Also, no one is really fearful like they were in Oct-Dec 2008. Those days where everyone wondered who was going to collapse next or if the government was going to bail out entire sectors, that was fear. Now people are just pessimistic, but they aren't scared the world will collapse.

by d2viant 16y ago

hga 16y ago

Well, of course ... but first you have to have the money to invest. That's not true for most Americans, especially since most who do have investments have them in their primary residence and retirement plans, the vast majority of which have taken a significant hit. Then you have to call the bottom, where the adage "Don't try to catch a falling knife" comes into play. A lot of people who bought into the stock market in, say, 1931 lost their shirts. That said, I'm sure there are good and fairly safe asset classes (perhaps the one this forum is dedicated to? :-) to be invested in right now, but it's certainly riskier than "normal". Also, when citing that "in twenty years" hindsight concept don't forget survivorship bias....

tocomment 16y ago

What investments are you speaking of? Have you gotten into any of them?

tansey 16y ago

There were some great investments out there in March of last year. P/E ratios were in the single digits, some companies had fallen by massive amounts but were still solvent. Then the rally came. Ford went from less than $2 a share to more than $10, Seagate went from $3 to $21 (though back down to $11 now). Wells Fargo went from $8 to $32. Those are the great deals people talk about in history books, but they're mostly gone. The last 18 months have seen huge infusions of capital into the market to keep things going. As a result, stocks have bounced back. Also, no one is really fearful like they were in Oct-Dec 2008. Those days where everyone wondered who was going to collapse next or if the government was going to bail out entire sectors, that was fear. Now people are just pessimistic, but they aren't scared the world will collapse.