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I think we are pretty far from truly replacing truck drivers. There will be a long period where the truck driver is in the car but not really driving, maybe ev

by pfisch 9y ago

I think we are pretty far from truly replacing truck drivers. There will be a long period where the truck driver is in the car but not really driving, maybe even a very long time depending on if it is enshrined in law. Even if the truck did drive itself, would it also load/unload and deal with flat tires and other vehicle damage conditions? I don't think these problems are insurmountable but I do think they will further extend the life of the truck driver profession. I mean trains and subways don't even drive themselves right now somehow, so I think truck drivers will be fine.

Johnny555 9y ago
I think that replacing long-haul drivers will happen sooner than you think. Self-driving (though human monitored) trucks are already operating: https://www.wired.com/story/embark-self-driving-truck-deliveries/ https://www.wired.com/story/embark-self-driving-truck-delive... I think the first step will be replacing long-haul truck drivers with autonomous trucks, they'll start at a depo near a freeway and end at a depo at the other end, then a human will drive to make the local delivery. Freeways are (relatively) easier to navigate than local streets. That takes a 30 hour long haul job and turns it into a 30 minute job -- a single driver can do 10 of those a day. Autonomous trucks will handle flats and other roadside breakdowns the same way many human drivers do -- pull over and wait for the repair service to come. There's less incentive to replace train/subway drivers due to the high driver to passenger/cargo ratio (plus union rules get in the way) -- 1 truck driver to 40 tons of cargo versus 1 train engineer to 10,000 tons of cargo
- deadmetheny 9y ago
  >Autonomous trucks will handle flats and other roadside breakdowns the same way many human drivers do -- pull over and wait for the repair service to come. Not to put too fine a point on it, but you clearly have no idea how the trucking industry works.
  - Johnny555 9y ago
    My dad was an owner-operator for 30+ years, so I think I know a bit about the industry. Which part of what I said do you disagree with? That Company Drivers ask dispatch to send the a tire service truck when they have a flat?
- pfisch 9y ago
  Why do you think it will be legal for a truck to operate without a driver anytime soon? I mean that is possible but I'm skeptical about us being that shortsighted with so many jobs on the line.
chalupa-man 9y ago
There are dozens of fully-automated train lines, some with attendants but many with absolutely zero personnel onboard, and the number is expected to quadruple within 10 years. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_automated_urban_metro_subway_systems https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_automated_urban_metro_...

by pfisch 9y ago

Johnny555 9y ago

I think that replacing long-haul drivers will happen sooner than you think. Self-driving (though human monitored) trucks are already operating: https://www.wired.com/story/embark-self-driving-truck-deliveries/ https://www.wired.com/story/embark-self-driving-truck-delive... I think the first step will be replacing long-haul truck drivers with autonomous trucks, they'll start at a depo near a freeway and end at a depo at the other end, then a human will drive to make the local delivery. Freeways are (relatively) easier to navigate than local streets. That takes a 30 hour long haul job and turns it into a 30 minute job -- a single driver can do 10 of those a day. Autonomous trucks will handle flats and other roadside breakdowns the same way many human drivers do -- pull over and wait for the repair service to come. There's less incentive to replace train/subway drivers due to the high driver to passenger/cargo ratio (plus union rules get in the way) -- 1 truck driver to 40 tons of cargo versus 1 train engineer to 10,000 tons of cargo

deadmetheny 9y ago
>Autonomous trucks will handle flats and other roadside breakdowns the same way many human drivers do -- pull over and wait for the repair service to come. Not to put too fine a point on it, but you clearly have no idea how the trucking industry works.
- Johnny555 9y ago
  My dad was an owner-operator for 30+ years, so I think I know a bit about the industry. Which part of what I said do you disagree with? That Company Drivers ask dispatch to send the a tire service truck when they have a flat?
pfisch 9y ago
Why do you think it will be legal for a truck to operate without a driver anytime soon? I mean that is possible but I'm skeptical about us being that shortsighted with so many jobs on the line.

chalupa-man 9y ago

There are dozens of fully-automated train lines, some with attendants but many with absolutely zero personnel onboard, and the number is expected to quadruple within 10 years. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_automated_urban_metro_subway_systems https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_automated_urban_metro_...