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The part you're missing is that jobs will also be created while others are destroyed. We lost tons of horse caring jobs as we switched to the automobile but it

The part you're missing is that jobs will also be created while others are destroyed. We lost tons of horse caring jobs as we switched to the automobile but it didn't wipe out society.

ryanwaggoner 9y ago
The folks who are worried about AI destroying jobs are aware of this cycle, but they think that it's different this time. Specifically, that technology has previously allowed workers to be more productive by shifting away from manual labor and towards cognitive work that requires the human mind. But AI is a unique threat because it can match (and then quickly absolutely dominate) humans for any kind of work that requires cognitive power. It's not a ridiculous argument, but I'm not convinced for several reasons: 1. I'm not convinced that AI can actually achieve something like the general intelligence that's required to perform in rapidly changing and dynamic environments. 2. Even if they can, there are lots of artistic and creative jobs that AI may not be able to do. Maybe we'll all be writers and poets and songwriters and sculptures in the future. 3. Also, doesn't incredibly smart and capable AI that can do any job that humans can do mean that the price of everything should plummet? Maybe post-scarcity will look different than we expect; maybe all the things we need for life will be effectively free, and companies will give them away the way they do with advertising schwag now. 4. If AI gets so cognitively powerful that it puts most of humans out of a job, we'll have either much bigger things to worry about (war with AI), or nothing to worry about (they'll either just squish us quickly or save us from all this).
- hueving 9y ago
  >But AI is a unique threat because it can match (and then quickly absolutely dominate) humans for any kind of work that requires cognitive power. Only at very specific tasks. As you point out later there is no evidence that AI general intelligence where it needs to be for this actually to be a threat to humans who can adapt to unexpected circumstances.
  - NoGravitas 9y ago
    General AI that can totally replace humans in a job isn't really the problem. The real issue is specialized AI that lets one person do work that previously required five or ten, whether because it increases their productivity directly, or the human is working as an AI-minder, letting them do the routine stuff, supervising them for quality, and taking over when they hit unexpected circumstances.
- b1daly 9y ago
  At a certain point, rather than trying to radically reengineer American society for a post job world, I think are far more palatable solutions (palatable to our crazy system as it stands). Shorter work week! Higher taxes, spent on social services. There is tremendous need for all kinds of social services in the US. Such occupations could fill a lot of jobs. Social workers, teachers, judges, police, EMTs, soldiers, programmers, managers, infrastructure building, doctors, financial counseling, career advisors. If the Republicans could let go of their incoherent,burn the house down strategy of governing, things could really be put on a better footing. Limitations on amount of AI that can be utilized in a company. It’s simply not viable to exclude large percentages of citizens from the working economy, and think that the technicians and managers will capture increasing proportions of the economy’s output. There’s no rule that we simply have to accept unfettered and increasingly Darwinian capatilistic competition, as it destroys society. I doubt it’s even possible in the US, as the sort of brutality required to maintain this type of extreme system is antithetical to the spirit of America. US citizens have some notion of themselves as having worth and rights. The history of the labor movement shows that constraints on trade in the name of improving working conditions is possible. My view is that we see the ugly rumblings of what a backlash might look like in the election of Trump. I understand some of the frustrations behind Trump as protest. I don’t think that is working that well. Things aren’t actually that bad in the US, compared to what they could be. There will be time to change course if things really start to disintegrate.
  - freehunter 9y ago
    >Limitations on amount of AI that can be utilized in a company. And when cars were new, there were limitations on their speed and where they could go so they didn't threaten horses.

The part you're missing is that jobs will also be created while others are destroyed. We lost tons of horse caring jobs as we switched to the automobile but it didn't wipe out society.

ryanwaggoner 9y ago

The folks who are worried about AI destroying jobs are aware of this cycle, but they think that it's different this time. Specifically, that technology has previously allowed workers to be more productive by shifting away from manual labor and towards cognitive work that requires the human mind. But AI is a unique threat because it can match (and then quickly absolutely dominate) humans for any kind of work that requires cognitive power. It's not a ridiculous argument, but I'm not convinced for several reasons: 1. I'm not convinced that AI can actually achieve something like the general intelligence that's required to perform in rapidly changing and dynamic environments. 2. Even if they can, there are lots of artistic and creative jobs that AI may not be able to do. Maybe we'll all be writers and poets and songwriters and sculptures in the future. 3. Also, doesn't incredibly smart and capable AI that can do any job that humans can do mean that the price of everything should plummet? Maybe post-scarcity will look different than we expect; maybe all the things we need for life will be effectively free, and companies will give them away the way they do with advertising schwag now. 4. If AI gets so cognitively powerful that it puts most of humans out of a job, we'll have either much bigger things to worry about (war with AI), or nothing to worry about (they'll either just squish us quickly or save us from all this).

hueving 9y ago
>But AI is a unique threat because it can match (and then quickly absolutely dominate) humans for any kind of work that requires cognitive power. Only at very specific tasks. As you point out later there is no evidence that AI general intelligence where it needs to be for this actually to be a threat to humans who can adapt to unexpected circumstances.
- NoGravitas 9y ago
  General AI that can totally replace humans in a job isn't really the problem. The real issue is specialized AI that lets one person do work that previously required five or ten, whether because it increases their productivity directly, or the human is working as an AI-minder, letting them do the routine stuff, supervising them for quality, and taking over when they hit unexpected circumstances.
b1daly 9y ago
At a certain point, rather than trying to radically reengineer American society for a post job world, I think are far more palatable solutions (palatable to our crazy system as it stands). Shorter work week! Higher taxes, spent on social services. There is tremendous need for all kinds of social services in the US. Such occupations could fill a lot of jobs. Social workers, teachers, judges, police, EMTs, soldiers, programmers, managers, infrastructure building, doctors, financial counseling, career advisors. If the Republicans could let go of their incoherent,burn the house down strategy of governing, things could really be put on a better footing. Limitations on amount of AI that can be utilized in a company. It’s simply not viable to exclude large percentages of citizens from the working economy, and think that the technicians and managers will capture increasing proportions of the economy’s output. There’s no rule that we simply have to accept unfettered and increasingly Darwinian capatilistic competition, as it destroys society. I doubt it’s even possible in the US, as the sort of brutality required to maintain this type of extreme system is antithetical to the spirit of America. US citizens have some notion of themselves as having worth and rights. The history of the labor movement shows that constraints on trade in the name of improving working conditions is possible. My view is that we see the ugly rumblings of what a backlash might look like in the election of Trump. I understand some of the frustrations behind Trump as protest. I don’t think that is working that well. Things aren’t actually that bad in the US, compared to what they could be. There will be time to change course if things really start to disintegrate.
- freehunter 9y ago
  >Limitations on amount of AI that can be utilized in a company. And when cars were new, there were limitations on their speed and where they could go so they didn't threaten horses.