There is no reason why the upcoming Monero hardfork couldn't cause a split. If a faction disagrees with the scheduled update, they very well could cause 2 diff

There is no reason why the upcoming Monero hardfork couldn't cause a split. If a faction disagrees with the scheduled update, they very well could cause 2 different chains, in the exact same way that Ethereum, and Ethereum clasic happened. There is no free lunch. A hard fork is a hard fork. It is perfectly possible that you will be incorrect in your prediction that the hardfork will be uncontroversial.