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It's not idiotic to buy something with a 95% chance of failure if the 5% chance has a 1000x return. I bought at $3 and I started selling at $200. I sold a ton
by 3pt14159 9y ago
It's not idiotic to buy something with a 95% chance of failure if the 5% chance has a 1000x return.
I bought at $3 and I started selling at $200. I sold a ton at $1000. Then a little at $5k and the rest at around $15k.
The entire time I held them I thought "the government will either ban or regulate this and they'll probably ban it" and you know what? It doesn't stop you from making money anyway.
Now that's a fun story right? Look at smart 3pt14159. What you don't see is the other 7 things I did with 0 payoff whatsoever. I bought a ton of emoji .ws domains. Why? I dunno, I stupidly thought they'd be the only TLD that would render as emojis. I hindsight, of course not, and once the others came out I reduced the number of domains I controlled. Nobody sees the lost weeks and $$ there, unless I happen to bring it up in a comment like this.
But the core idea behind both of those actions was this: Look for the low probability, high payoff investments. Unless you have $100m+ it's usually worth your time and most people don't have an intuitive grasp of inelastic supply curves and their impact on price.
- Retric 9y agoI think you misunderstood the parent. At 2,000$ each they can't have 1000x returns. So the person buying at 2000$ is more likely to be a sucker than someone buying at 3$, but less likely than someone who buy's at 15,000$.
- panarky 9y agoThis is my investment allocation and it's worked well over the years. 95% in ultra-safe government bonds and bank CDs. 5% in ultra-high-risk moonshots. Cut the losers quickly and let the winners run.
- csomar 9y ago> It's not idiotic to buy something with a 95% chance of failure if the 5% chance has a 1000x return. It is not. It is idiotic, however, to buy something that you don't know it's probabilities of payoff.