4 ms·

Ask HN: What course/topic/textbook to evaluate if product idea should be pursued?

• mindcrime 9y ago
  If you're trying to compare 100+ ideas and choose the "best" one to explore, I'd suggest looking into a simulation based approach. Monte Carlo simulation[1] is probably a good place to start. There are dozens of textbooks that cover the topic. Now the downside to this is that you have to have parameter ranges for the model to simulate, and you don't necessarily know the probability distribution for each variable in the model up front. That means you have to estimate/guess at them. This makes the exercise slightly error-prone. There is, however, a mechanism you can use to teach yourself (or others) to do a better job of estimation. The technique I'm thinking of is "calibrated probability assessment"[2]. The book How To Measure Anything[3] by Douglas Hubbard does a really nice job of laying out how to use calibrated probability assessments, mathematical models, and monte carlo simulation, to build a probability distribution for things that look hard/impossible to measure. Anyway, if you build a model for all of your ideas, and monte carlo simulate all of them to get a probability distribution for the return, then you at least have something somewhat objective to base a decision on. One last note though: when doing this kind of simulation, one big risk (aside from mis-estimating a parameter) is that you leave a particular parameter out completely. I don't know of any deterministic way to make sure you include all the relevant features in a model. The best way I know of to address that is to "crowd source" some help and get as many people as you can (people who have relevant knowledge / experience) to evaluate and critique your model. [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monte_Carlo_method https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monte_Carlo_method [2]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Calibrated_probability_assessment https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Calibrated_probability_assessm... [3]: https://www.amazon.com/How-Measure-Anything-Intangibles-Business/dp/1452654204 https://www.amazon.com/How-Measure-Anything-Intangibles-Busi...
  • startup4740 9y ago
    Definitely going to read it. I ordered https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1422157989/ref=oh_aui_detailpage_o00_s00?ie=UTF8&psc=1 https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1422157989/ref=oh_aui_deta... yesterday. Thank you!
• kjksf 9y ago
  If there was a book that (successfully) teaches how to evaluate product ideas then 9 out of 10 VC funded companies wouldn't fail. Instead of wasting 90% of their investments a VC would read that book and invested only in the good ideas. In the end no one knows anything but there are plenty of people who will give you advice: http://www.innovationmanagement.se/imtool-articles/how-to-evaluate-ideas/ http://www.innovationmanagement.se/imtool-articles/how-to-ev... https://thesecondprinciple.com/creativity/criteria-to-help-evaluate-creative-ideas/ https://thesecondprinciple.com/creativity/criteria-to-help-e... https://www.creativejeffrey.com/creative/how_to_evaluate_ideas.php https://www.creativejeffrey.com/creative/how_to_evaluate_ide... https://boss.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/12/20/establishing-a-process-to-evaluate-ideas/ https://boss.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/12/20/establishing-a-pro... https://www.inc.com/stephen-key/how-to-effectively-evaluate-your-new-product-idea.html https://www.inc.com/stephen-key/how-to-effectively-evaluate-... https://www.entrepreneur.com/article/81940 https://www.entrepreneur.com/article/81940 http://www.vandelaydesign.com/business-idea/ http://www.vandelaydesign.com/business-idea/ https://hbr.org/2010/03/the-2minute-opportunity-checkl https://hbr.org/2010/03/the-2minute-opportunity-checkl http://www.fuckedupstartups.com/fs-adviser/startup-initiator-idea-evaluation-checklist/ http://www.fuckedupstartups.com/fs-adviser/startup-initiator...
  • startup4740 9y ago
    Thanks for sharing your saved links. Will have to read them. I might discuss them with you later.