I think you may have misinterpreted my comment, because I'm really in agreement with what you just said: placing near the top in prestigious math contests indic

I think you may have misinterpreted my comment, because I'm really in agreement with what you just said: placing near the top in prestigious math contests indicates that you'll probably be a good professional mathematician, but not having top contest-math scores does not preclude you from being a good professional mathematician. In general I think placement into top math undergrad/PhD programs (e.g. Harvard) should be less focused on contest math.