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Rather than an "inflection point", I would think of it as a phase transition between the phase where new jobs are being created fast enough to replace those los

Rather than an "inflection point", I would think of it as a phase transition between the phase where new jobs are being created fast enough to replace those lost due to automation, and the phase where new jobs aren't being created fast enough. Also, instead of a thinking in terms of a "backlog", I feel like the average human only has a roughly fixed amount of ability, while hardware+software is increasing in capability all the time, such that it might become more cost-effective than any human worker for any economically valuable task eventually. Yes, humans are very flexible, and the same body+mind that can live a hunter-gatherer lifestyle can also live a modern office worker's lifestyle, but we're never going to be able to outrun a car, or beat a specialised chess AI. There is no law of economics which says that the economy will always create jobs which humans can do better and cheaper than machines, unfortunately.

perl4ever 9y ago
It seems to me that you just did literally describe an inflection point. Regardless of what you call it, as I think about it, in my previous post I ought to have used the word discontinuity, because an inflection point isn't a crisis. This article on Foxconn is about a discontinuity which is the sort of thing that makes people worry, but on a global scale, I don't see why we should expect a global dislocation from automation any time soon.
- JoeAltmaier 9y ago
  Because one is already happening? Full employment has become "folks who used to be engineers and scientists and office managers, are working the counter at a fast food joint ". And those jobs are going next, apparently. There's no rule that says jobs will get 'created' at all. It hasn't happened for factory workers the last 10 years.
  - perl4ever 9y ago
    All three of those professions work symbiotically with computers and automation. It's hard for me to see them as competing.

perl4ever 9y ago

It seems to me that you just did literally describe an inflection point. Regardless of what you call it, as I think about it, in my previous post I ought to have used the word discontinuity, because an inflection point isn't a crisis. This article on Foxconn is about a discontinuity which is the sort of thing that makes people worry, but on a global scale, I don't see why we should expect a global dislocation from automation any time soon.

JoeAltmaier 9y ago
Because one is already happening? Full employment has become "folks who used to be engineers and scientists and office managers, are working the counter at a fast food joint ". And those jobs are going next, apparently. There's no rule that says jobs will get 'created' at all. It hasn't happened for factory workers the last 10 years.
- perl4ever 9y ago
  All three of those professions work symbiotically with computers and automation. It's hard for me to see them as competing.