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Mining guy here. I have done plenty of feasibility study works for lithium projects over past few years and in general; There is a lot of supply coming online

by rmm 9y ago

Mining guy here. I have done plenty of feasibility study works for lithium projects over past few years and in general; There is a lot of supply coming online from hard rock lithium sources in the next 12-24 months, especially from Australian spodumene sources. Demand side is heavily from the Chinese electric car market. Smaller cars, only 5-6kg max LCE per car. All other demand is a small percentage of what Chinese demand is estimated to be. And yes you are right, we have been using satellite imagery for decades, it’s just a lot easier now.

xiphias 9y ago
Chinese demand and Chinese car markets may not mean the same thing. Isn't China planning to assemble and sell batteries to European car manufacturers?
ggm 9y ago
Dorothy Dunnetts 'nicolo' series of bodice-ripper historical fiction has its roots in the discovery of Tolfa (alum) mines and the impact on the dye industry. The clue to location being (amongst other things) holly and a differential preference for alum rich soil. I guess in some sense remote sensing for vegetation and then focussed analysis has deep deep roots. Interesting that lithium sources are going to rock. I thought the saltpan stuff in the Atacama was a price beater for years to come. I also believe the various rare earth dependencies are determined not to get caught behind China as a sole source.
- Tuna-Fish 9y ago
  Atacama will make it's operators very rich, however it is not practical for them to raise extraction rate to where they could serve the entire market. So, in addition to them, a lot of rock-based supply needs to be developed.
- rmm 9y ago
  Brine sources are massive, cheaper sources, but take years to come online. The problem was there were about 3-4 major players in Lithium (it was actually a side product for them) and they didn't see the demand rising as quickly as it did. This allowed for a massive price increase, which made it feasible for hard-rock miners to come in. With a decent project, you could go from finding the resource to production in 12-18 months, as the ore is normally close to the surface, and processing for export is relatively simple. So the next 12 months a lot of these projects are starting to beging production, while the brine players play catch up.
Animats 9y ago
That's encouraging. No shortage of lithium either short term or long term.
- ianai 9y ago
  I'm actually really impressed how easy this was to find: http://periodictable.com/Properties/A/CrustAbundance.an.html http://periodictable.com/Properties/A/CrustAbundance.an.html For reference, at one point people thought there was going to be a "uranium boom" during the cold war era. So a bunch of prospectors went around the US looking to stake out claims to uranium deposits. They thought they were going to beat everybody to the punch of a late 1800s style gold rush. Only problem: They soon found out that uranium occurs so frequently in the crust that there's no economic incentive to monopolize deposits. In the link, you'll see that lithium is about 10x as common as uranium. I'm also sure I'm not fully aware of all the factors here - but just based on that information I think we're fine for lithium reserves.
- rmm 9y ago
  Correct. Short term, hard-rock sources will save the day. Long-term, brine sources will come online from South America. Either way, lithium shortage is mostly FUD.
danieltillett 9y ago
My understanding is it is cobalt that is the problematic element in short supply. We don't have many supplies outside of the DRC and that has a lot of problems.
- rmm 9y ago
  Biggest source by far is the DRC, but there are plenty of other sources. The problem is they are difficult to process and beneficiation is costly. But with rising prices, this should become less of an issue.

by rmm 9y ago

xiphias 9y ago

Chinese demand and Chinese car markets may not mean the same thing. Isn't China planning to assemble and sell batteries to European car manufacturers?

ggm 9y ago

Dorothy Dunnetts 'nicolo' series of bodice-ripper historical fiction has its roots in the discovery of Tolfa (alum) mines and the impact on the dye industry. The clue to location being (amongst other things) holly and a differential preference for alum rich soil. I guess in some sense remote sensing for vegetation and then focussed analysis has deep deep roots. Interesting that lithium sources are going to rock. I thought the saltpan stuff in the Atacama was a price beater for years to come. I also believe the various rare earth dependencies are determined not to get caught behind China as a sole source.

Tuna-Fish 9y ago
Atacama will make it's operators very rich, however it is not practical for them to raise extraction rate to where they could serve the entire market. So, in addition to them, a lot of rock-based supply needs to be developed.
rmm 9y ago
Brine sources are massive, cheaper sources, but take years to come online. The problem was there were about 3-4 major players in Lithium (it was actually a side product for them) and they didn't see the demand rising as quickly as it did. This allowed for a massive price increase, which made it feasible for hard-rock miners to come in. With a decent project, you could go from finding the resource to production in 12-18 months, as the ore is normally close to the surface, and processing for export is relatively simple. So the next 12 months a lot of these projects are starting to beging production, while the brine players play catch up.

Animats 9y ago

That's encouraging. No shortage of lithium either short term or long term.

ianai 9y ago
I'm actually really impressed how easy this was to find: http://periodictable.com/Properties/A/CrustAbundance.an.html http://periodictable.com/Properties/A/CrustAbundance.an.html For reference, at one point people thought there was going to be a "uranium boom" during the cold war era. So a bunch of prospectors went around the US looking to stake out claims to uranium deposits. They thought they were going to beat everybody to the punch of a late 1800s style gold rush. Only problem: They soon found out that uranium occurs so frequently in the crust that there's no economic incentive to monopolize deposits. In the link, you'll see that lithium is about 10x as common as uranium. I'm also sure I'm not fully aware of all the factors here - but just based on that information I think we're fine for lithium reserves.
rmm 9y ago
Correct. Short term, hard-rock sources will save the day. Long-term, brine sources will come online from South America. Either way, lithium shortage is mostly FUD.

danieltillett 9y ago

My understanding is it is cobalt that is the problematic element in short supply. We don't have many supplies outside of the DRC and that has a lot of problems.

rmm 9y ago
Biggest source by far is the DRC, but there are plenty of other sources. The problem is they are difficult to process and beneficiation is costly. But with rising prices, this should become less of an issue.