5 ms·

The software looks cool, and I totally get the demo scenario. I'm having trouble coming up with situations in which i would be useful to me, though. Do any of

by bmm6o 16y ago

The software looks cool, and I totally get the demo scenario. I'm having trouble coming up with situations in which i would be useful to me, though. Do any of you all see other uses for it?

RyanMcGreal 16y ago
It seems to work well as a decision matrix. Try using it to choose your next car.
burton 16y ago
When it comes to your personal life, it's probably very limited. That's because most personal decisions involve preferences, and it's completely normal for you to be subjective when making such decisions. The point of ACH is to help you think objectively about objective facts, not keep you from thinking subjectively about things that are inherently subjective.
- gwern 16y ago
  Argument-mapping software would be particularly useful for controversial topics where it's hard to judge just based on the appearance. For example, take cryonics. An 'outside view' would be that it's largely scorned, associated with nutcases, etc.; but its partisans make an 'inside view' of specific technical arguments and say the facts overcome the outside view. A mapped out inside view would be easier to follow for non-technical folks, and at least make clear what technical points are disputed. (eg. if the cryobiologists' counter-arguments are basically 'yes, it's possible except for one small issue with synaptical vesicles', an outsider might think that's soluble issue and decide to believe in the whole thing) Of course, so far I know of no one who has put together a useful argument map like this (and all applications seem to be in niches - like the CIA), which sort of suggests that perhaps it's not a good tool at all or is too heavy-weight or something.
Revisor 16y ago
I'd also love to see any real-world examples (without spies, maybe in startup/business/management context?).
- burton 16y ago
  If you have a scenario, I'd be happy to work with you to build it. We need more case studies, even if they're hypothetical. Write to me. http://www.competinghypotheses.org/docs/About_The_Project http://www.competinghypotheses.org/docs/About_The_Project
Super_Jambo 16y ago
Investing based on macro-economic trends.
- Super_Jambo 16y ago
  To clarify. You could have (for example). Chinese growth will continue. China will fall into a large recession. America will have high-inflation. America will have deflation. Then as evidence you could take demographic data. Monetary policy decisions that are taken in the past & their reasoning... I might have to do this.
  - burton 16y ago
    Be sure that when you do, you choose hypotheses that are mutually exclusive: only one of them should be correct. http://competinghypotheses.org/docs/ACH,_Step_By_Step http://competinghypotheses.org/docs/ACH,_Step_By_Step http://competinghypotheses.org/docs/User_manual#Hypotheses http://competinghypotheses.org/docs/User_manual#Hypotheses

by bmm6o 16y ago

The software looks cool, and I totally get the demo scenario. I'm having trouble coming up with situations in which i would be useful to me, though. Do any of you all see other uses for it?

RyanMcGreal 16y ago

It seems to work well as a decision matrix. Try using it to choose your next car.

burton 16y ago

When it comes to your personal life, it's probably very limited. That's because most personal decisions involve preferences, and it's completely normal for you to be subjective when making such decisions. The point of ACH is to help you think objectively about objective facts, not keep you from thinking subjectively about things that are inherently subjective.

gwern 16y ago
Argument-mapping software would be particularly useful for controversial topics where it's hard to judge just based on the appearance. For example, take cryonics. An 'outside view' would be that it's largely scorned, associated with nutcases, etc.; but its partisans make an 'inside view' of specific technical arguments and say the facts overcome the outside view. A mapped out inside view would be easier to follow for non-technical folks, and at least make clear what technical points are disputed. (eg. if the cryobiologists' counter-arguments are basically 'yes, it's possible except for one small issue with synaptical vesicles', an outsider might think that's soluble issue and decide to believe in the whole thing) Of course, so far I know of no one who has put together a useful argument map like this (and all applications seem to be in niches - like the CIA), which sort of suggests that perhaps it's not a good tool at all or is too heavy-weight or something.

Revisor 16y ago

I'd also love to see any real-world examples (without spies, maybe in startup/business/management context?).

burton 16y ago
If you have a scenario, I'd be happy to work with you to build it. We need more case studies, even if they're hypothetical. Write to me. http://www.competinghypotheses.org/docs/About_The_Project http://www.competinghypotheses.org/docs/About_The_Project

Super_Jambo 16y ago

Investing based on macro-economic trends.

Super_Jambo 16y ago
To clarify. You could have (for example). Chinese growth will continue. China will fall into a large recession. America will have high-inflation. America will have deflation. Then as evidence you could take demographic data. Monetary policy decisions that are taken in the past & their reasoning... I might have to do this.
- burton 16y ago
  Be sure that when you do, you choose hypotheses that are mutually exclusive: only one of them should be correct. http://competinghypotheses.org/docs/ACH,_Step_By_Step http://competinghypotheses.org/docs/ACH,_Step_By_Step http://competinghypotheses.org/docs/User_manual#Hypotheses http://competinghypotheses.org/docs/User_manual#Hypotheses