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Nate Silver on how ignoring math skews political journalism

25 points by _pius 16y ago

mooism2 16y ago
Political journalism is surely more skewed by predicting or speculating on who WILL win elections, instead of asking who SHOULD win.
- brown9-2 16y ago
  Should journalism be subjective?
  - mooism2 16y ago
    Ideally political journalists would concentrate on exploring the issues, comparing the candidates' policy positions, exploring their likely consequences and so on. To the extent that it's not possible to do that objectively, yes, journalism should be subjective.
- hypersoar 16y ago
  I am reminded of an article on Ars Technica (POTUS 2008: Are you ready for some football?) from a few years ago about how political coverage has become more and more like sports coverage. It's clichéd, but I agree that the media should focus much more on the matters being discussed than on the people discussing them. At best, this personality-driven media obfuscates the issues. At worst, it tolerates and even encourages dishonesty. As much as I enjoy and even respect what Nate Silver has done, he drives this "who's winning the race" style coverage nearly to its logical extreme.
  - mooism2 16y ago
    Absolutely; I expect I'd enjoy Nate Silver's blog a lot less if I was American.
lmkg 16y ago
Politics is entertainment. No matter how slam-dunk an election may be, networks have an incentive to make it look like a photo-finish, in order to make the viewing experience intense and drive viewer engagement. If you say "yeah, it's pretty much over by this point," your viewers have no reason to tune in for the rest of the week. If you say "it's so close, absolutely anything could tip the scales," people will keep watching your live coverage of butterflies in China. Tangent: I first realize this before I was of voting age, watching the same thing unfold on an episode of Survivor. For extra credit, describe how reality television and political election coverage have influenced each other in recent years.
- ugh 16y ago
  I wonder to what degree that’s US specific. I just don’t seem to see the same thing happening here in Germany. Our campaigns are much shorter and we have less of them, also no 24 hour news channels (none that count, nothing like what you have in the US). Coverage about the election is still dominated by the big public broadcasters and seems a lot less hectic. All not very entertaining, if you ask me.
  - philwelch 16y ago
    Maybe it depends on what relationship you have with your government. Americans like to see their presidents, in particular, as Bold Heroes Leading The Free World...to do something, at least, whether it's building the Panama Canal or winning a war or sending men to the moon. We carve their faces into fucking mountainsides over here. Americans really want inspirational leaders who can be larger-than-life figures boldly changing history by sheer force of will. There's no tactful way to say this, but the last time Germany tried electing a bold, larger-than-life leader looking to change the course of history by sheer force of will, it didn't turn out too well. So I'm not surprised German culture has somewhat shied away from that tendency. Frankly I'd be happy if Americans were satisfied with electing dull but competent administrators rather than trying to look for epic historical figures. It gets the expectations all out of whack, and leads people who aren't up to it into making poor judgments.
    - 16y ago

25 points by _pius 16y ago

Political journalism is surely more skewed by predicting or speculating on who WILL win elections, instead of asking who SHOULD win.

brown9-2 16y ago
Should journalism be subjective?
- mooism2 16y ago
  Ideally political journalists would concentrate on exploring the issues, comparing the candidates' policy positions, exploring their likely consequences and so on. To the extent that it's not possible to do that objectively, yes, journalism should be subjective.
hypersoar 16y ago
I am reminded of an article on Ars Technica (POTUS 2008: Are you ready for some football?) from a few years ago about how political coverage has become more and more like sports coverage. It's clichéd, but I agree that the media should focus much more on the matters being discussed than on the people discussing them. At best, this personality-driven media obfuscates the issues. At worst, it tolerates and even encourages dishonesty. As much as I enjoy and even respect what Nate Silver has done, he drives this "who's winning the race" style coverage nearly to its logical extreme.
- mooism2 16y ago
  Absolutely; I expect I'd enjoy Nate Silver's blog a lot less if I was American.

lmkg 16y ago

Politics is entertainment. No matter how slam-dunk an election may be, networks have an incentive to make it look like a photo-finish, in order to make the viewing experience intense and drive viewer engagement. If you say "yeah, it's pretty much over by this point," your viewers have no reason to tune in for the rest of the week. If you say "it's so close, absolutely anything could tip the scales," people will keep watching your live coverage of butterflies in China. Tangent: I first realize this before I was of voting age, watching the same thing unfold on an episode of Survivor. For extra credit, describe how reality television and political election coverage have influenced each other in recent years.

ugh 16y ago
I wonder to what degree that’s US specific. I just don’t seem to see the same thing happening here in Germany. Our campaigns are much shorter and we have less of them, also no 24 hour news channels (none that count, nothing like what you have in the US). Coverage about the election is still dominated by the big public broadcasters and seems a lot less hectic. All not very entertaining, if you ask me.
- philwelch 16y ago
  Maybe it depends on what relationship you have with your government. Americans like to see their presidents, in particular, as Bold Heroes Leading The Free World...to do something, at least, whether it's building the Panama Canal or winning a war or sending men to the moon. We carve their faces into fucking mountainsides over here. Americans really want inspirational leaders who can be larger-than-life figures boldly changing history by sheer force of will. There's no tactful way to say this, but the last time Germany tried electing a bold, larger-than-life leader looking to change the course of history by sheer force of will, it didn't turn out too well. So I'm not surprised German culture has somewhat shied away from that tendency. Frankly I'd be happy if Americans were satisfied with electing dull but competent administrators rather than trying to look for epic historical figures. It gets the expectations all out of whack, and leads people who aren't up to it into making poor judgments.
  - 16y ago