I've thought the same thing myself and I usually assume that it's a combination of #2/#4. The geniuses are out there, and those who work directly with them kno

I've thought the same thing myself and I usually assume that it's a combination of #2/#4. The geniuses are out there, and those who work directly with them know that they're geniuses, but they won't get wide-spread recognition until much later. Probably because they're working on ideas that won't (can't) be implemented until much later. Actually, it might be that there are many groups of geniuses out there, but only those whose work ends up being useful (depending on random future events) are later regarded as geniuses. Like the article said, the demand for computers didn't really increase until WWII.