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Film business - dead from Digital Cameras - time taken ~7 years from first affordable high quality cameras. Music Distribution business (cds/vinyls in shops) -

by brc 16y ago

Film business - dead from Digital Cameras - time taken ~7 years from first affordable high quality cameras. Music Distribution business (cds/vinyls in shops) - death throes from Digital Music players - time taken ~7 years from first affordable high quality mp3 players. Newspaper business - first models of viable media devices (Kindle, iPad) now viable - gone by 2015?

ams6110 16y ago
Well I can still buy 35mm film, and vinyl records, and CDs and DVDs. So no print won't be gone in 2015, but it will likely be a shadow of its former self.
- mitjak 16y ago
  Isn't it already?
- Groxx 16y ago
  That's pretty much the point. Film exists, but it's much more of a niche market now, instead of being the only market. And Polaroid and Kodachrome at least are wholly dead, barring imitators. Print won't die, just like stone carving and thatching. There will always be some market. Might it lose the dominant market status though? To some degree (ease, storage, etc), I hope so. To others, (book trades, notes, no cord) I hope not. We'll see.
- brc 16y ago
  'Dead' means 'dead as a way of making bulk money'. There will always be specialist businesses dealing with old technology.
mootothemax 16y ago
Painting, sheet music and writing are unlikely to die a sudden death any time soon, as they're the only ways of achieving their aims with one's bare hands. Print media nicely bridges the gap, and whilst I'm sure that volumes are going to decrease, /why/ would it ever disappear?
Robin_Message 16y ago
Stats: First six months of 2010, 112 million CD albums sold, 42 million download albums sold, 600 million CD singles sold (~60 million album equivalent) [1] so it's about 50/50 on digital music. Physical music distribution is not it it's death throes. Also, the decline is slowing, and the market is fairly saturated. The thing that killed film cameras is that digital cameras just work better and have at least one killer feature -- Instant review. That is a massive advantage for consumer and professional alike. Once the disadvantages were moore's lawed away -- quality for professionals and price, size and printing for consumers -- film could not stand. There is no killer feature with download music. I can get it faster, but so what? It might grasp the fashion markets, but not everyone needs music now. It has added no killer feature and it's not even cheaper. And one thing that's not like all the others -- it's a worse product. Most people have a CD player in their house and their car. And their computer. And their friends have CD players †. And they can play their CD's everywhere, and they can rip them and put them on portable devices, and they can display them in their living rooms. Newspapers - physicality is nice, but I can well see them disappearing, because digital news will be more convenient, cheaper and more up-to-date. The winners will be the digital newspapers that preserve or enhance the paper reading experience, which might not mean having reporters and so on, but will mean selecting and presenting information in a way people value (in particular, mirroring the reader's values. It just occurred to me that the Daily Mirror in the UK is the best (and most ironically) named newspaper ever.) [1] http://www.prosoundnews.com/blog/30154 http://www.prosoundnews.com/blog/30154 † iPod docks in hifis and cars are getting penetration, but are not standard yet, and certainly not ubiquitous. Fixing this will be one thing that kills physical music.
- brc 16y ago
  Point taken that it's too early to lay flowers at the grave of physical music - but would you invest in a shopping mall music store? I've seen a lot of them close down. The killer feature with downloadable music is (virtually) unlimited storage, and having your entire collection with you in one device. It won't be long before cars don't have CD players (it's 10 years since they dropped cassette players, and it was about 5 years while they had both). I would say iPod docks in cars are already ubitiquous - most car reviews in magazines will mention if there is one or not, and journalists usually moan if there isn't. I also disagree with the thought that displaying in living rooms and swapping with friends is a feature. I put all my old CDs in a box years ago. It's only music tragics that want everyone to see their collection. The thing is, the biggest consumers of music are young people. Try and find a 17 year old with a CD player. As this demographic moves through life, CDs will shrink into niche stores just like print films.

by brc 16y ago

ams6110 16y ago

Well I can still buy 35mm film, and vinyl records, and CDs and DVDs. So no print won't be gone in 2015, but it will likely be a shadow of its former self.

mitjak 16y ago
Isn't it already?
Groxx 16y ago
That's pretty much the point. Film exists, but it's much more of a niche market now, instead of being the only market. And Polaroid and Kodachrome at least are wholly dead, barring imitators. Print won't die, just like stone carving and thatching. There will always be some market. Might it lose the dominant market status though? To some degree (ease, storage, etc), I hope so. To others, (book trades, notes, no cord) I hope not. We'll see.
brc 16y ago
'Dead' means 'dead as a way of making bulk money'. There will always be specialist businesses dealing with old technology.

mootothemax 16y ago

Painting, sheet music and writing are unlikely to die a sudden death any time soon, as they're the only ways of achieving their aims with one's bare hands. Print media nicely bridges the gap, and whilst I'm sure that volumes are going to decrease, /why/ would it ever disappear?

Robin_Message 16y ago

Stats: First six months of 2010, 112 million CD albums sold, 42 million download albums sold, 600 million CD singles sold (~60 million album equivalent) [1] so it's about 50/50 on digital music. Physical music distribution is not it it's death throes. Also, the decline is slowing, and the market is fairly saturated. The thing that killed film cameras is that digital cameras just work better and have at least one killer feature -- Instant review. That is a massive advantage for consumer and professional alike. Once the disadvantages were moore's lawed away -- quality for professionals and price, size and printing for consumers -- film could not stand. There is no killer feature with download music. I can get it faster, but so what? It might grasp the fashion markets, but not everyone needs music now. It has added no killer feature and it's not even cheaper. And one thing that's not like all the others -- it's a worse product. Most people have a CD player in their house and their car. And their computer. And their friends have CD players †. And they can play their CD's everywhere, and they can rip them and put them on portable devices, and they can display them in their living rooms. Newspapers - physicality is nice, but I can well see them disappearing, because digital news will be more convenient, cheaper and more up-to-date. The winners will be the digital newspapers that preserve or enhance the paper reading experience, which might not mean having reporters and so on, but will mean selecting and presenting information in a way people value (in particular, mirroring the reader's values. It just occurred to me that the Daily Mirror in the UK is the best (and most ironically) named newspaper ever.) [1] http://www.prosoundnews.com/blog/30154 http://www.prosoundnews.com/blog/30154 † iPod docks in hifis and cars are getting penetration, but are not standard yet, and certainly not ubiquitous. Fixing this will be one thing that kills physical music.

brc 16y ago
Point taken that it's too early to lay flowers at the grave of physical music - but would you invest in a shopping mall music store? I've seen a lot of them close down. The killer feature with downloadable music is (virtually) unlimited storage, and having your entire collection with you in one device. It won't be long before cars don't have CD players (it's 10 years since they dropped cassette players, and it was about 5 years while they had both). I would say iPod docks in cars are already ubitiquous - most car reviews in magazines will mention if there is one or not, and journalists usually moan if there isn't. I also disagree with the thought that displaying in living rooms and swapping with friends is a feature. I put all my old CDs in a box years ago. It's only music tragics that want everyone to see their collection. The thing is, the biggest consumers of music are young people. Try and find a 17 year old with a CD player. As this demographic moves through life, CDs will shrink into niche stores just like print films.