4 ms·
Indeed. All I see from this and similar threads here and articles all over the internet on topics like these is: "blah blah hindsight bias blah blah rationaliz
by fro0116 9y ago
Indeed. All I see from this and similar threads here and articles all over the internet on topics like these is:
"blah blah hindsight bias blah blah rationalization blah blah"
At the end of the day, the only useful theories for the stock market are the ones that have predictive power. I'd be interested in reading articles by people who are consistently willing to put their money where their mouths are and consistently make money on their theories' predictions, but anyone who can do that of course tend to know better and tend to keep their mouths shut.
- fauigerzigerk 9y agoI think you're right that these theories and explanations are rarely useful for trading, but that's not the same as being wrong or unfounded. There is clearly some causality in the economy. There is also a causal relationship between the economy and the stock market. It's just that identifying a correct causal relationship or correlation and even making a correct prediction doesn't make you any money if everyone else is making the same correct prediction.
- mannykannot 9y agoAll the theories are probabilistic, and it could not be any other way, because if there was a deterministic theory, people would react in ways that would invalidate the data and assumptions on which that theory's predictions are based.