Regarding the very long run, people forget survivor bias. For instance, in the early 20th century, you would have had the choice to invest in three equally prom

Regarding the very long run, people forget survivor bias. For instance, in the early 20th century, you would have had the choice to invest in three equally promising emerging markets: Argentina, Russia, and the USA. One of those went on to grow for over a century, the other two not so much.