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The dollar has weakened over the past year, so knock off 1/4 point off any quarterly GDP numbers proposed, and knock 10 points off the 23% the 401(k) supposedly
by cmurf 9y ago
The dollar has weakened over the past year, so knock off 1/4 point off any quarterly GDP numbers proposed, and knock 10 points off the 23% the 401(k) supposedly got in the past year, and consider any inflation comes with assymetric timing risk where wages always lag by a lot. And now in real terms the past year's stock increases look a lot more ordinary rather than remarkable. It's not like the stock market is going to ignore a weakening dollar, in particular when the Treasury Secretary publicly says it's a good thing as if it's an actual policy to have a weak dollar.
And working people have to feel the sting of inflation before they demand wage increases, they don't just automatically happen. Before that, interest rates going up might increase housing sales as people want to get "in" before the interest rates go up even more, and then housing will slowly taper off as inflation and interest rates take hold, and people get priced out of buying, since their wages will not keep up in the short term.
Inflation also helps pump up tax revenue, and monetize debts. So the numbers will look better, but in real terms they won't be better for a while until the markets fully correct for inflation and then things stabilize a bit.