5 ms·

At one point down -1,600. I did a little buying today (BRK.B), this was margin calls, algo trading, and fear.

cpncrunch 9y ago
It's certainly a good idea to buy when stocks are undervalued. However at the moment they are likely still overvalued, and it's also quite early days in this current sell-off. I just sold my entire portfolio (apart from retirement funds) earlier this morning, as we want to buy a house later in the year and don't want to get trapped if the stock market completely crashes.
- nodesocket 9y ago
  Congratulations on the future house. We shall see about the market, but today's crash is POSSIBLY where can you can make money.
- psyc 9y ago
  I’ve been watching for a sell signal for about 6 months, and I also got (mostly) out this morning.
  - refurb 9y ago
    The chance of you actually timing getting back into the market at the right point is really low. Miss the best days of a run up and you're giving up 75%+ of your returns. Far better to hold steady.
    - psyc 9y ago
      It’s been 10 years. Pretty epic bull run. I’ll cross the re-entry bridge at a later date.
  - buttcoinslol 9y ago
    There are other strategies to protect long positions if you have cash or an appetite for risk, this allows you to realize the gains from holding during the entire runup. It does require a good exit strategy for whatever hedge you choose.
    - krrrh 9y ago
      Do you want to list some of the ones you’re thinking of? I’m trying to level up on hedging strategies for retail investors. I was thinking of buying VIX on Friday, and am kicking myself for missing out now.
      - buttcoinslol 9y ago
        There are a range of ETFs that aim to have inverse daily returns to different things. I bought some SPXU, which aims to offer 3x the inverse daily return of the S&P 500. It works for this use case, betting that the S&P will fall. There are risks to using leverage, and inverse ETFs are meant for short term bets (a few days at most).
      - nodesocket 9y ago
        Curious what instrument you were going to buy the VIX through? $VXX? $VXX was only up (coughing) 33% while the CBOE VIX was/is up nearly 100+ %.
        krrrh 9y ago
        I hadn't looked into all the options to be honest, VXX was on my radar. So was TVIX[1], but figuring out how to optimize decaying short-term bets like these felt like too much for a non-expert. I'm certain there are smarter and less risky ways to hedge a market that seems overbought. [1] https://sixfigureinvesting.com/2015/10/how-does-tvix-work/ https://sixfigureinvesting.com/2015/10/how-does-tvix-work/
      - justinsaccount 9y ago
        Sell calls against long stock positions. If you're really scared, use the credits on the calls to buy further out puts.
      - rmrm 9y ago
        You can also just buy puts. Puts on SPY increase in value as SP500 declines.
valuearb 9y ago
Nearly my entire net worth is in BRK.B, and I wouldn't buy at these prices. If you track it's average Price to Book value it's close to the highest ratio it's ever had. I believe it broke over 1.7 last week. When it hit it's all time high P/B ratio of 2.0 in the first internet bubble, buyers returns were very poor for the next decade. I'm hoping for a much bigger sell-off so I can pick up some more below $150.
- gizmo385 9y ago
  Seems unnecessarily reckless to put almost all of your net worth into a single stock.
  - jannotti 9y ago
    True, but less so for BRK, because your money is in a single stock, but not a single business. (I understand there are still plenty of things that might make the BRK price change in a single direction despite all those disparate businesses.)
  - hellogoodbyeeee 9y ago
    BRK.B is closer to a mutual fund than a "single stock"
    - TheAdamAndChe 9y ago
      It's also has a single Board of Directors, meaning there is still a single point of failure. It's not like putting all of your money on Tesla, but it's still riskier than a mutual fund.
      - gbacon 9y ago
        As a BRK.B owner, the elephant in the room is the advanced age of Warren Buffett. No matter how much he and Munger talk soothingly about continuity and succession plans, the unknown is how the company’s stock will fare after Mr. Buffett heads for the great Dairy Queen in the sky.

It's certainly a good idea to buy when stocks are undervalued. However at the moment they are likely still overvalued, and it's also quite early days in this current sell-off. I just sold my entire portfolio (apart from retirement funds) earlier this morning, as we want to buy a house later in the year and don't want to get trapped if the stock market completely crashes.

nodesocket 9y ago
Congratulations on the future house. We shall see about the market, but today's crash is POSSIBLY where can you can make money.
psyc 9y ago
I’ve been watching for a sell signal for about 6 months, and I also got (mostly) out this morning.
- refurb 9y ago
  The chance of you actually timing getting back into the market at the right point is really low. Miss the best days of a run up and you're giving up 75%+ of your returns. Far better to hold steady.
  - psyc 9y ago
    It’s been 10 years. Pretty epic bull run. I’ll cross the re-entry bridge at a later date.
- buttcoinslol 9y ago
  There are other strategies to protect long positions if you have cash or an appetite for risk, this allows you to realize the gains from holding during the entire runup. It does require a good exit strategy for whatever hedge you choose.
  - krrrh 9y ago
    Do you want to list some of the ones you’re thinking of? I’m trying to level up on hedging strategies for retail investors. I was thinking of buying VIX on Friday, and am kicking myself for missing out now.
    - buttcoinslol 9y ago
      There are a range of ETFs that aim to have inverse daily returns to different things. I bought some SPXU, which aims to offer 3x the inverse daily return of the S&P 500. It works for this use case, betting that the S&P will fall. There are risks to using leverage, and inverse ETFs are meant for short term bets (a few days at most).
    - nodesocket 9y ago
      Curious what instrument you were going to buy the VIX through? $VXX? $VXX was only up (coughing) 33% while the CBOE VIX was/is up nearly 100+ %.
      - krrrh 9y ago
        I hadn't looked into all the options to be honest, VXX was on my radar. So was TVIX[1], but figuring out how to optimize decaying short-term bets like these felt like too much for a non-expert. I'm certain there are smarter and less risky ways to hedge a market that seems overbought. [1] https://sixfigureinvesting.com/2015/10/how-does-tvix-work/ https://sixfigureinvesting.com/2015/10/how-does-tvix-work/
    - justinsaccount 9y ago
      Sell calls against long stock positions. If you're really scared, use the credits on the calls to buy further out puts.
    - rmrm 9y ago
      You can also just buy puts. Puts on SPY increase in value as SP500 declines.

valuearb 9y ago

Nearly my entire net worth is in BRK.B, and I wouldn't buy at these prices. If you track it's average Price to Book value it's close to the highest ratio it's ever had. I believe it broke over 1.7 last week. When it hit it's all time high P/B ratio of 2.0 in the first internet bubble, buyers returns were very poor for the next decade. I'm hoping for a much bigger sell-off so I can pick up some more below $150.

gizmo385 9y ago
Seems unnecessarily reckless to put almost all of your net worth into a single stock.
- jannotti 9y ago
  True, but less so for BRK, because your money is in a single stock, but not a single business. (I understand there are still plenty of things that might make the BRK price change in a single direction despite all those disparate businesses.)
- hellogoodbyeeee 9y ago
  BRK.B is closer to a mutual fund than a "single stock"
  - TheAdamAndChe 9y ago
    It's also has a single Board of Directors, meaning there is still a single point of failure. It's not like putting all of your money on Tesla, but it's still riskier than a mutual fund.
    - gbacon 9y ago
      As a BRK.B owner, the elephant in the room is the advanced age of Warren Buffett. No matter how much he and Munger talk soothingly about continuity and succession plans, the unknown is how the company’s stock will fare after Mr. Buffett heads for the great Dairy Queen in the sky.