My favorite theory is that they're currently solvent if you take their cryptocurrency assets at current fiat prices into account. In this theory, the regulator

My favorite theory is that they're currently solvent if you take their cryptocurrency assets at current fiat prices into account. In this theory, the regulatory suppression of their banking relationships forced them to hold the crypto assets they were taking in return for USDT, and they have made out like bandits -- on paper, for now -- from the crazy demand for cryptocurrency over the last 6 months. If that's the case, it might be possible to estimate how far the current crash would have to go for them to hit insolvency, from the history of USDT releases. On the other hand, hopefully they've been diversifying the holdings they're prevented from liquidating into other price-stable commodities like gold and oil, via in- kind trades. If any of this is true, I can see how it would make them shy about an audit. It's very precarious, even if there's no theft intended by it.