3 ms·
If we can measure variance inside of 33 days, and that's extrapolated over a few millions of years, that could skew the numbers a bit. [..] that has a hug
by Confusion 16y ago
If we can measure variance inside of 33 days, and that's extrapolated over
a few millions of years, that could skew the numbers a bit.
[..]
that has a huge impact on carbon dating.
No, the effect is very extremely small and this has no impact at all. Lets suppose that:
* we measure differences of 1/1000th in decay rates (this is reasonable given the differences the article is based on)
* the average variation is 1/1000th, otherwise it would have been detected earlier.
* the halflife of C14 is 5000 years (to make calculations easy)
* we are determining the age of something 20000 years old (carbon dating is only used for ages in that order of magnitude).
* the decay formula is y = x(1/2)^(t/tau), where y is the amount of C14 you will measure after t years, tau is the halflife in years and x is the initial amount of C14 we obtained via other means.
We measure an amount of C14 that's 2^4 times smaller than current amounts and conclude that the amount of C14 was halved 4 times. If the decay rate was actually 1/1000th larger on average, then we should have conclude that 2^(-4) = 1/2^(t/5005) or t = 20020 years. In other words: the error is as large as the relative seasonal variation, which is quite small already and probably falls well within the regular error bars.
- loewenskind 16y agoBut that means you're expecting the C14 rates to be the same now as when the subject died. A reasonable assumption but as far as I understand C14 hasn't reached any kind of equilibrium for some reason. Aren't there different amounts in the air than say, 50 years ago?
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- Confusion 16y agoCarbon dating always requires an estimate of the initial amount of C14 in the object whose age is being determined. That is an issue separate from the one being considered in this thread, but one whose error bar is probably more important. I cursorily touched upon that with: *x* is the initial amount of C14 we obtained via other means. These 'other means' are thoroughly explained in various places on the web, due to the amount of creationist attacks on carbon dating.