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Just a reminder-- there were 1.15M light vehicle sales in the US last month[0]. The total for all of these EV cars put together is a drop in the bucket.. 12000
by rgbrenner 9y ago
Just a reminder-- there were 1.15M light vehicle sales in the US last month[0].
The total for all of these EV cars put together is a drop in the bucket.. 12000/1.15M = 1%. So if big auto has a problem, they have a lot of time to figure it out.
0. http://www.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-autosales.html http://www.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-autosales.html
Edit: Corrected.. thanks to sremani for pointing out the error.
- deleted 9y ago[deleted]
- sremani 9y ago17 Million is yearly number.
- deleted 9y ago[deleted]
- ggm 9y agoI'm coming at this from another domain, measuring IPv6 uptake. I've been doing this for over 10 years now. The initial demand curve, was severely depressing. It was painful to watch technology sitting at 1% growth. The thing is, that in a logistic supply curve, the moment of change when something where the best-fit is linear, and it goes into its exponential phase, its completely unpredictable. You can stab at it, but its really best defined in arrears, after the fact. So we're on 1% of monthly sales against ICE? We might still be on 1% in 3 months time, or 6. But the progression from 1% to 5% to 16% to 40% will be interesting. It might not happen that way, but in other domains, the uptake curve is abrupt. (and it doesn't have to reach 100%, there is no must here, and its not a physical law bound thing either: its a supply curve, a logistic curve.)
- semi-extrinsic 9y agoThe thing about tech uptake is that it faces very few hard physical limitations on growth. I mean, if Tesla were facing as few physical limitations (literally can't build cars fast enough) as IPV6 uptake, they'd have sold millions of cars by now.