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The estimate is that by 2020 battery prices will come down to make the price of electric engine + battery be the same as price of diesel engine. Even with rela
by kjksf 9y ago
The estimate is that by 2020 battery prices will come down to make the price of electric engine + battery be the same as price of diesel engine.
Even with relatively slow progress on batteries, they double in density / get half as cheap in about 5 to 10 years.
Add to this that Tesla is aggressively doubling their Supercharging network every year.
If cars today have 200-300 miles of range, in 10 years they'll have 400-600 miles for less money, eliminating the one issue that stands in the way of mass adoption of evs (range anxiety).
Most likely 7-12 years from now it'll make no economic sense to put 2 different engines in the same car i.e. a single electric engine will be cheaper than a hybrid.
And this is based on linearly extrapolating the past. If battery production follows the same curve as wind / solar energy production, we're systematically underestimating progress and things will happen faster.
We're really in Day 1 of mass producing batteries, with volumes (and therefore investments in improvements) scaling way faster than linearly.
- chronic193 9y ago> Add to this that Tesla is aggressively doubling their Supercharging network every year. There are more DC fast chargers in the US and Europe than Tesla Superchargers. Stop betting on Tesla. They're an awesome company and sparked the change, but their first mover advantage is just about over.
- cellularmitosis 9y agoI thought we don't have enough lithium to transition the world's autos to electric?
- acct1771 9y agoYou thought wrong. Especially with improved (any) recycling processes.
- semi-extrinsic 9y agoI'm not buying it. A current Model S, which is super streamlined and thus super impractical (in terms of trunk space, it has just 25 cu ft of trunk space) as compared to the most popular gas/diesel cars in the US and Europe - large SUVs and large station wagons, respectively (having 50+ cu ft of trunk space) - is hauling around 1200 lbs of batteries. If you imagine an all-electric Ford Explorer (an example popular SUV) with 400-600 miles of range, you're looking at ~3000 lbs of batteries. Add that to a 1500 lbs cargo capacity and 4000 lbs of curb weight without engine, the gross weight of the car is 8500 lbs. That's a Class 2b Heavy Duty vehicle, just for a medium size SUV.