4 ms·
The problem is not that the sequence is random (it isn’t), but that the seed changes on a regular basis.
by danieltillett 9y ago
The problem is not that the sequence is random (it isn’t), but that the seed changes on a regular basis.
- manmal 9y agoSince our reality is based on randomness at a very low level (eg radiation patterns), what makes you believe that this randomness is somehow lost on a higher level?
- danieltillett 9y agoBecause there is true signal in the way markets move (after all fundamentally the movements are based macro and micro economics events). People find patterns in the data that occur at a far higher rate than chance even once you account for data mining. The problem is a system that works in one era doesn't work in another.
- manmal 9y agoI agree, there are patterns (as everywhere in nature), but they are highly probabilistic because they are noisy due to randomness.
- freeflight 9y ago> randomness at a very low level (eg radiation patterns) Sometimes I wonder if one couldn't actually decipher these background radiation patterns, given enough resolution in sensors and enough calculation power to crunch possible models fitting the patterns. Imho not even the drop of a dice is random and a seed is nothing but a pre-defined set of variables. But at that point, we could probably just simulate our own realities.
- manmal 9y agoI‘m no expert and all, but AFAIK there is true randomness going on in quantum effects. Here is a nice discussion: https://physics.stackexchange.com/a/210609 https://physics.stackexchange.com/a/210609