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> education, health care (including prescription drugs) and real estate over long periods of time. If you're talking about the housing market, the Case-Shiller
by justin66 9y ago
> education, health care (including prescription drugs) and real estate over long periods of time.
If you're talking about the housing market, the Case-Shiller index indicates that over long periods of time, the value of housing tracks inflation, it does not outpace it. (Which does not exactly help the homeowner caught riding enormous peaks and valleys in pricing, of course.)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Case-Shiller_index https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Case-Shiller_index
The other two are interesting. It seems safe to say that as more and more technology becomes available to help people stay healthy and alive, medicine will continue to get more expensive. Or maybe medicine will essentially become an information technology where Moore's Law applies and costs will go down, as Kurzweil predicted.
Maybe education will become less expensive as credentialism collapses under its own weight and online learning becomes more prevalent. Or maybe we will need more and more education as job hopping becomes the norm and wrangling all different sorts of technology becomes the lot of pretty much everyone who wants to earn more than the universal basic income.
- mercutio2 9y agoThe Case-Shiller index doesn’t include income (real, or imputed rent), and the index doesn’t go all that far back. When you include imputed rent, maintenance, and property taxes, it’s much less clear whether residential real estate or equities have better total returns over century timelines. I was surprised by this, when I read abstracts of a paper about this recently, but it seems to be at least not as settled as I used to think it is.
- justin66 9y agoI'd be terribly interested in a link to the paper you mentioned. I've never seen anything credible which indicated real estate was as profitable as equities over time (but I've been focused on the United States). I'm not sure how or why Case-Shiller would involve rent or imputed rent. Are you thinking more of commercial real estate?