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>This is because the portfolio strategy (1 hypergrowth + 20 failures) is the best strategy from the VC perspective. Duh? You say that as if it should be consid
by crdoconnor 9y ago
>This is because the portfolio strategy (1 hypergrowth + 20 failures) is the best strategy from the VC perspective.
Duh? You say that as if it should be considered surprising. It would be surprising if it were an irrational preference, not a completely rational preference.
The real question is why the economy is geared towards such an uneven distribution of returns. I don't think it's a law of nature (e.g. economies of scale) because for pretty much all corporations there are massive diseconomies of scale that offset that. You just have to work at one of them to see how manifestly inefficient they are, and yet they still dominate and investors still exhibit an exceptionally strong preference for them.
I think may be an artefact of the American tax and legal system which allows the use of size and wealth as market leverage to an extreme degree. Investors prefer to see one big Uber/Microsoft/Google over a hundred smaller Uber/Microsoft/Googles because that one big company, can legally use its size to crush smaller, more efficient competitors and thus achieve monopoly or oligopoly power which it can safely use to wring profits out of customers without fear of being undercut.
If the legal and tax system cracked down on this phenomenon instead of covertly encouraging it (e.g. with stuff like tax holidays for Apple) I think VCs would probably adjust their preferences accordingly.
- tinymollusk 9y agoCan't it simply be explained by the mathematics of decision making under uncertainty in open and complex systems? This is an interesting discussion; is it shapeable market forces (US tax and legal system) that creates these incentives, or is it something more inherent to trying to predict the outcome of a really complex problem? It sounds like you believe it to be the former, whereas I believe it to be the latter.
- crdoconnor 9y ago>Can't it simply be explained by the mathematics of decision making under uncertainty in open and complex systems? Yes, my whole point is it is an inevitable outcome of the the confluence of immutable randomness, immutable human nature and the structure of our economy. However, that doesn't mean that it's a fait accompli - the structure of our economy is mutable via law and taxes. That tax system and laws help discourage lots of competing Ubers and encourage one big monopoly Uber. The question you have to ask is - is that really the most desirable outcome? >whereas I believe Belief is for gospel preachers and anarcho-libertarians. It's not rational to apply it here.