3 ms·
It took me a long while to come up with a response to this I liked, but think about it this way: there is, maybe, a 10^-a prior climate change destroys life as
by pizza 9y ago
It took me a long while to come up with a response to this I liked, but think about it this way: there is, maybe, a 10^-a prior climate change destroys life as we know it, right? But my prior for God, heaven, etc existing is, alas, 10^-b, where b >>>>>>>>>>>>> a. (never a 0 or 1 prior kinda guy, even if I know that is dumb in some scenarios, like tautologies and impossibilities, yadada). Too many more factors would have to be revealed to me in terms of the existence of God that I would then believe that a is of similar value to b, if that makes sense? ie that they have similar probabilities (or rather, utilities, which matters since heaven is probably +inf and catastrophe of all life is MAX(badness) which we might as well call -inf, right?
So, not only is -Cost * P(calamity | investment) >> -Cost * P(calamity | not investment), Cost(investment) < [Cost(calamity | no investment) -
Cost(calamity | w investment)], so its a rational purchase...
sorry if this is at all unclear, i can clarify anything