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Worries Grow That the Price of Bitcoin Is Being Propped Up
- jboggan 9y ago'But Mr. Krug, at Pantera Capital, said that if Tether were really being used by investors, they would probably also want to buy new Tether when the markets were going up, which has not been the case. Also, they would not always want it in exact increments of $100 million, as has been the case. “After you see this enough times, you just start to wonder what’s really going on here,” Mr. Krug said.' I'd listen to the folks at Pantera, they are pretty sharp.
- AznHisoka 9y ago... and they happen to own several crypto hedge funds.. wonder what their strategy is if they think something suspicious is happening.
- thisisit 9y agoTo spread FUD so that prices are lowered and they can buy coins cheap? Edit: So looks like attempt at humor lacked the /s tag attracting downvotes. So let me clarify, the answer to the above post asking "what will do they next?" If they believe in cryptocurrencies they will buy more if the prices are cheaper.
- atomical 9y agoKeep your FUD accusations off Hacker News. This really is a cultish behavior in the cryptocurrency community.
- hyprCoin 9y agoThis reads like a conspiracy theory but please pause for a moment and consider why a financial company involved in cryptocurrencies would spread concern to a highly read news outlet. Either they: 1) Are scared that tethers can crash the market and want to flush things sooner than later or 2) It's part of a disinformation strategy to move the market where it's more profitable. There are very few rules and regulations around cryptocurrency so I'm betting on #2.
- atomical 9y agoBecause they are experts and by being right about predicting events in this market they can garner power and influence.
- tinymollusk 9y agoor 3) it's a single individual sharing their opinion or 4) they believe it will help their overall reuputation after a crash, so customers who bought and got crushed will think "man if only I had listened to them" or 5) it's someone with a personal grudge against crypto -- they made a private market short with an accepting party or 6) it's space aliens who know crypto is the secret to super-luminal space travel and they want to sabotage humanity's efforts to reach the stars. There is very limited evidence to prove that it wasn't space aliens. That's all I'm sayin'.
- brosirmandude 9y agoIf tether pops, what happens? Do people try to cash out immediately or do they flock to the "stable" coins like BTC or ETH? To my knowledge the only thing you can trade tether for is other cryptocurrencies.
- ErikAugust 9y agoWe have Coinbase/GDAX, and now Robinhood and Square Cash doing BTC (and other currencies) to USD, so that's becoming a legitimate option. I've always wondered though - how do you move multiple hundreds of thousands of dollars worth out to fiat in a single instance? Is that possible?
- wmf 9y agohow do you move multiple hundreds of thousands of dollars worth out to fiat in a single instance? Doing a trade of that size is no problem; you just enter it. Getting the money out via ACH or wire would require being pre-verified and upping your limits. AFAIK Gemini has higher limits than Coinbase/GDAX.
- maxander 9y agoIf tether pops suddenly, such as by the revelation that the supposed dollar account backing it was a sham, there may not be any cash to out. Simply no one will buy it, or only for pennies on the dollar. Alternately, it might drag down other currencies by taking away the illusion of easy crypto-to-dollar exchange that tether offered, but other than that the dominant effect would likely just be investor panic. So, no one knows how things will turn out! Such is finance. It makes for fun stories, at least.
- MekaiGS 9y agoWhat I think would happen is people with Tether stuck on those exchanges would start trying to get out by two ways: 1) Cashing out to fiat, I don't know these exchanges well enough to determine if people actually managed to cash out their Tethers with real money in a meaningful sum. 2) Buying crytocurrencies available on these Tether based exchanges in order to get off these exchanges, which would actually cause prices to go up, but only in terms of USDT, not USD. After that it really depends on what those folks would do next, they might choose to hold onto the coins or try to liquidate to fiat which would cause prices of coins on non-Tether exchanges to go down.
- olivermarks 9y ago"Long before news of the subpoena, Bitfinex, which is believed to host more trading than any other Bitcoin exchange in the world, had gained a reputation for a lack of transparency and a confusing structure, with European executives, offices in Asia and registration in the Caribbean." Oh boy this sounds like the banking system I was hoping cryptocurrencies would supersede...
- atomical 9y agohttp://www.businessinsider.com/40-percent-of-bitcoins-are-held-by-just-1000-people-2017-12 http://www.businessinsider.com/40-percent-of-bitcoins-are-he... > According to AQR Capital Management, about 1,000 people own 40% of the world's bitcoins. I'm not sure having bitcoin oligarchs will work out great.
- sekh60 9y agoYou will like this headline from The Onion: https://www.theonion.com/bitcoin-on-path-to-functioning-just-like-real-currency-1821128169 https://www.theonion.com/bitcoin-on-path-to-functioning-just...
- olivermarks 9y agohttps://youtu.be/QKO6IChjojI https://youtu.be/QKO6IChjojI
- deleted 9y ago[deleted]
- thisisit 9y ago> Also, they would not always want it in exact increments of $100 million, as has been the case. Not to question the Tether story but I don't understand this line of argument. What is the problem with exact increments? Sure, the tokens have to be issued only if the issuing conditions are met. But given the number of hacks, wouldn't people want to use the issuing account sparingly? You know, use the issuing account to issue tokens in fixed increments to build up reserves. The move these reserves to be held in another account.
- tim333 9y agoThe theory behind tether is it's backed by US dollars so if investors send in 1234 usd they should be held in reserve and 1234 tether issued against them. If they are issuing them in lots of 100 million it suggests they were not bothering with the whole receive dollars from investors and hold them bit.
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- yeukhon 9y agoI won’t charge you for consultation here. You should make a token system so people can earn token (somehow) and get rewards like iPhone and perhaps even a stack of American Dollar. Let’s partner with resturants, airlines, gyms and hotels. Every bite, every mile equals some arbitrary token that will expire in 180 days. We will develop a mobile game called crytoGo in which users can earn our token by mobbing Central Park and Settale Centeal Library. The more active users are physically in the real world, the more trading happens. We will make our users live like a hamster running on a wheel. We give people incentive to live and make money! No more sitting in the office 9-10 anymore! They get social and outdoor life, and we make our money. This will take off. Don’t waste your time on Facebook. Any crytocurrency marketer tells you to invest in facebook campaign is stealing your money. Listen - find some viral YouTubers and Instagram users to back you. We will make an awesome logo like the Grumpy Cat. Contact me privately if you would like a quote for a complete proposal. I am happy to work out the details with you. We can refine the bots for sure. Everything is done behind Tor - even more secure than ever! Our servers are located in Sweden so do not worry about! Just so you know: I have patented the idea and design of this system. So don’t think about copying. Trust me. My name is yeukhon. I have a B.S in Computer Science. K?
- ucaetano 9y ago
- monus21 9y agoSo what is the likely outcome of the fallout of Tether and Bitfinex? I'm guessing the price of Bitcoin will fall drastically?
- josephagoss 9y agoAs bitcoin is quite impossible to value via traditional methods it's very hard to say where the price could end up after a tether pop. I've heard many in the cryptocurrency space throw figures around such as $1,000. I fear that the crash would be far lower. The argument is that the entire run up is fake therefore a realistic price would be back around $100.
- monus21 9y agoI can see this happening. Sucks for everyone who bought in at $18K.
- mattcaldwell 9y agoTether's market cap is around $2b... the crypto market as a whole clocks in at over $500b right now... what kind of effect could Tether really have, beyond the inevitable panic that will ensue?
- blhack 9y agoSo currently the same as: Bitcoin gold -- a questionable bitcoin fork. OmiseGo -- Soemthing I've actually never heard of, despite following cryptocurrencies pretty closely. If OmiseGo, or Bitcoin Gold ended up being a scam, would the market even notice?
- nlowell 9y agoMarket cap is not the same as actual money that has flowed into the space. Tether claims that 2B actual USD exist in reserves.
- mattcaldwell 9y agoActually, they claimed that they have "sufficient resources" to back the 2B.
- thisisit 9y agoThe fallacy around marketcap is well explained the above post. Or check the link: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16279591 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16279591
- mattcaldwell 9y agoThat doesn't actually apply here, does it? If $2B is an inflated market cap, that's good for everyone.
- thisisit 9y agoThe idea presented in the post is simple - marketcap is based on the last trade. So it is an unreliable indicator. True measure might be something like liqudity and exits. What happens if the liquidity shifts or exits to fiat disappear completely? Like I pointed out, currently USDT is connected to 15% of liquidity in BTC: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16279642 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16279642 Or as MekaiGS said the whole thing will depend on exits: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16279618 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16279618
- cdetrio 9y agoThe article links to tetherreport.com > We vary N from 1 to 24 hours and examine the p-values. [.....] there are a number of periods where the p-values are significantly below 0.05 and we reject the null hypothesis for those periods. Is it p-hacking to vary N and find low p-values? If its not p-hacking, but a valid analysis with predictive power, then wouldn't it make a good trading strategy to watch the tether wallet and buy btc whenever new issuance happens?
- sudouser 9y agojust look at the weekly chart and you’ll see a peak pattern. another pattern can be seen in the daily chart, flat periods that don’t exist on stocks like Nike or apple
- jacquesm 9y ago> Worries Grow That the Price of Bitcoin Is Being Propped Up Never looked at the NYT as a satirical publication.
- sjg007 9y agoI really want bitcoin to succeed because it really is a great way to take back the power from corporations and the plutocracy we find ourselves in today. The fixed pool of bitcoins is slightly problematic.. would it not be better if the pool increased at 1% a year or so..? Gold made sense as a reserve since it formed a quorum among the various economies. The dollar makes sense now but so does bitcoin. The only issue I can't resolve is the deflationary impact of hodling since there will only by 21 million coins.
- wmf 9y agoIn reality, a small number of early adopters are trying to set up a new crypto-plutocracy with themselves at the top. You're the sucker at the table.
- deleted 9y ago[deleted]
- kibwen 9y ago> a great way to take back the power from corporations and the plutocracy we find ourselves in today. In practice this is ultimately just replacing one plutocracy with another. Though really, given that the only way to make "fuck-you" money betting on cryptocurrencies is to have an excess of disposable income in the first place, it may not be so much "replacing" as "reinforcing".
- atomical 9y agohttp://www.businessinsider.com/40-percent-of-bitcoins-are-held-by-just-1000-people-2017-12 http://www.businessinsider.com/40-percent-of-bitcoins-are-he... > According to AQR Capital Management, about 1,000 people own 40% of the world's bitcoins. Take back the power? How? Power is still concentrated in the hands of a few.
- username223 9y ago> The only issue I can't resolve is the deflationary impact of hodling since there will only by 21 million coins. It's even worse than that, since people will continue to lose bitcoins. They've already lost 3 million or so: http://fortune.com/2017/11/25/lost-bitcoins/ http://fortune.com/2017/11/25/lost-bitcoins/. It's as if the Federal Reserve promised to print $21 million in dollar bills, then never print any more. Maybe someday "bitcoin mining" will mean digging through landfills and scanning old hard drives for lost wallets.
- jchook 9y agoNo way. When you look at the daily volume of the Bitfinex exchange, it is large... but not that large.
- neuro_imager 9y agoEnough of this already... If Tether doesn't have the funds then its a lot like someone borrowed 2Billion to buy crypto and can't pay it back. Bitfinex will die, tether will die (just like other scam currencies like Bitconnect) but the market will come back after a correction.
- atarian 9y ago@dang, this story was on the front page and then just disappeared. Was it removed intentionally? And if so, what was the reason?
- CamelCaseName 9y agoBitcoin stories generally seem to disappear from the front page rather quickly. If this weren't the case, HN may find itself completely buried by this topic, as well as the spammers that come with it.
- kapauldo 9y agoThis article us about a year too late.