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it seems to me that predicting the distant (20+ years) future based on the past never really works out.
by noodle 16y ago
it seems to me that predicting the distant (20+ years) future based on the past never really works out.
- Unseelie 16y agoThat's because you're assuming the wrong frame of reference on your singularity. http://www.kmeme.com/2010/07/singularity-is-always-steep.html http://www.kmeme.com/2010/07/singularity-is-always-steep.htm... If you were to drop back to 1970 and estimate the next 20 years by the 2010 scale, things are almost identical. If you measure 2000-2010 on the 1970 scale, things are a hard takeoff.