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I agree that there is a strategy here. However, every strategy needs to be evaluated relative to the cost, and from my point of view, the price that Intel is pa
by sdz 16y ago
I agree that there is a strategy here. However, every strategy needs to be evaluated relative to the cost, and from my point of view, the price that Intel is paying to execute this strategy is too high.
If we look at MFE's peak earnings from FY2009, it's $173m. So a $7.7b price tag is just under 45x. In other words, it'll take 45 years of FY2009 earnings to merely regain the initial investment. Now let's be more generous and give Intel a low discount rate of 5% and assume that those earnings grow compounded 10% each year. It will still take 25 years for Intel to make back that investment.
Of course, the investment gets better if there are synergies that will provide additional boost to Intel's earnings, but what are they? I don't really buy (2) since Intel has shown that they are capable of getting their software onto your computer when they want to (see their integrated video drivers that download through Windows Update).
But even if they couldn't, they could have just continued collaborating with McAfee without buying them. That's essentially the exact same thing as what's happening now, minus the big transfer of wealth from Intel shareholders to McAfee shareholders.
I suppose that I'm just not convinced that Intel couldn't have rolled their own solution for less than $7bln. Even if they really needed to buy McAfee, a 60% premium over the market price is pretty steep, and it's hard for me to see how that adds more value to Intel shareholders than a 7% special dividend or buyback. So far, I haven't seen an argument that's made me think, "Oh yes, that IS something I'd pay $7 billion for."
- tptacek 16y agoDrivers and antivirus are not comparable footholds on desktop computers. Enterprises don't buy premium drivers. They don't select vendors based on driver brands. And, as Intel seems to have found, they don't pay premium prices for desktop chipsets based on remote access drivers. McAfee's gross revenues for the last 12 months total over 2 billion dollars; that's many many hundreds of millions of dollars worth of enterprises specifically selecting McAfee software as part of their standard build and as part of the mechanism by which they track and secure their computers. Is MFE worth the premium? I have no idea. But the "synergy" here is not very fuzzy. Intel has a clear path towards both integrating and bundling MFE's value propositions into their own hardware, and to generating lock-in both based on MFE's brand (which may command north of 40% of the enterprise market) and on a combined AV/hardware security offering that won't be available from any other mainstream vendor. I don't want to sound like a booster for this acquisition. I'm not. I'm just saying that it's nowhere near as crazy as some people (particularly the "what's Intel going to do, implement AV in ASIC?" crowd) seem to think it is. This is a straightforward vertical integration play, along an axis in the industry (enterprise desktop security) that is natural for Intel to be exploring given their last decade's worth of investment.