4 ms·

So if North Korea launches one of their ICBMs into LEO with a billion metal pellets, would it be the end of the space age?

beobab 9y ago
It might make things harder, but it probably wouldn't end it entirely. These humans we have here are remarkably ingenious, have a high risk tolerance, and would probably come up with some way of dealing with it.
- lou1306 9y ago
  And LOE still has some atmospheric drag, which means that debris will eventually fall to Earth. So that would be more of a "space age hiatus". By the way, we already have some ideas on how to deal with debris [0], so in the event of an actual Kessler Syndrome we could try them out. [0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laser_broom https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laser_broom
  - TeMPOraL 9y ago
    "Space age hiatus" would be a serious blow to our future as a species, though. It seems that over the last few years, all the necessary components required to bootstrap an economy in Earth's orbit / cislunar space have been coming together. This peculiar synchronization may completely collapse if we were to suddenly lose space access for couple of years (or decades).
mnw21cam 9y ago
It takes more rocket to launch into LEO than it does to get a ballistic trajectory to your nearest enemy. Your average ICBM doesn't have the oomph to do it. If it did, then it could target any point on the planet, and we are fairly sure the North Korea ICBMs can't do that. Yet. Also, once you have got your pellets into LEO, you need a way to spread them with a variety of relative velocity. A satellite-satellite collision or a rocket explosion does this very well - the models give the individual fragments 1km/s relative outward velocity from the incident, so you basically need to make a nail bomb. Some of the fragments will be blown in the backwards direction, and may re-enter the atmosphere on the first orbit. Interestingly, because reasons, fragments that are blown upwards and downwards may also re-enter on the first orbit too.
- azernik 9y ago
  You could actually get a payload into LEO with an ICBM, as long as it was lighter than your average nuclear warhead (or for MIRVed missiles, lighter than your warheads plus bus).
  - Cthulhu_ 9y ago
    Could you? I mean if my KSP knowledge is anything to go by, yes you could, but KSP isn't reality and I can imagine the rocket itself is already too heavy or doesn't have enough thrust / fuel to bring itself into orbit.
    - TeMPOraL 9y ago
      KSP is close enough to reality here. Also, isn't US fond of using old ICBMs to launch military satellites?
      - jackaroe78 9y ago
        Usually just on the 4th of July (give or take a week)
      - azernik 9y ago
        It's considered a valid way to dispose of excess missiles under disarmament treaties like START.
    - keenerd 9y ago
      We've used old ICBMs to get stuff to the moon. LADEE most recently. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lunar_Atmosphere_and_Dust_Environment_Explorer https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lunar_Atmosphere_and_Dust_Envi...
    - Symmetry 9y ago
      The principles that KSP teaches are correct except for the bit where in KSP you're only under the gravitational influence of one body at a time, which doesn't matter for reaching orbit. The specific numbers in the KSP parts are totally fudged to make the game more fun but parts with those numbers would work like they do in KSP if they existed. For instance in real life jet engines have a lower thrust to weight ratio than rocket engines. EDIT: But you can download the realistic solar system mod to get a sense of what real world thrust ratios and orbital delta-v is like. And Children of a Dead Earth has multi-body physics for Lagrange points and so on.

beobab 9y ago

It might make things harder, but it probably wouldn't end it entirely. These humans we have here are remarkably ingenious, have a high risk tolerance, and would probably come up with some way of dealing with it.

lou1306 9y ago
And LOE still has some atmospheric drag, which means that debris will eventually fall to Earth. So that would be more of a "space age hiatus". By the way, we already have some ideas on how to deal with debris [0], so in the event of an actual Kessler Syndrome we could try them out. [0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laser_broom https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laser_broom
- TeMPOraL 9y ago
  "Space age hiatus" would be a serious blow to our future as a species, though. It seems that over the last few years, all the necessary components required to bootstrap an economy in Earth's orbit / cislunar space have been coming together. This peculiar synchronization may completely collapse if we were to suddenly lose space access for couple of years (or decades).

mnw21cam 9y ago

It takes more rocket to launch into LEO than it does to get a ballistic trajectory to your nearest enemy. Your average ICBM doesn't have the oomph to do it. If it did, then it could target any point on the planet, and we are fairly sure the North Korea ICBMs can't do that. Yet. Also, once you have got your pellets into LEO, you need a way to spread them with a variety of relative velocity. A satellite-satellite collision or a rocket explosion does this very well - the models give the individual fragments 1km/s relative outward velocity from the incident, so you basically need to make a nail bomb. Some of the fragments will be blown in the backwards direction, and may re-enter the atmosphere on the first orbit. Interestingly, because reasons, fragments that are blown upwards and downwards may also re-enter on the first orbit too.

azernik 9y ago
You could actually get a payload into LEO with an ICBM, as long as it was lighter than your average nuclear warhead (or for MIRVed missiles, lighter than your warheads plus bus).
- Cthulhu_ 9y ago
  Could you? I mean if my KSP knowledge is anything to go by, yes you could, but KSP isn't reality and I can imagine the rocket itself is already too heavy or doesn't have enough thrust / fuel to bring itself into orbit.
  - TeMPOraL 9y ago
    KSP is close enough to reality here. Also, isn't US fond of using old ICBMs to launch military satellites?
    - jackaroe78 9y ago
      Usually just on the 4th of July (give or take a week)
    - azernik 9y ago
      It's considered a valid way to dispose of excess missiles under disarmament treaties like START.
  - keenerd 9y ago
    We've used old ICBMs to get stuff to the moon. LADEE most recently. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lunar_Atmosphere_and_Dust_Environment_Explorer https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lunar_Atmosphere_and_Dust_Envi...
  - Symmetry 9y ago
    The principles that KSP teaches are correct except for the bit where in KSP you're only under the gravitational influence of one body at a time, which doesn't matter for reaching orbit. The specific numbers in the KSP parts are totally fudged to make the game more fun but parts with those numbers would work like they do in KSP if they existed. For instance in real life jet engines have a lower thrust to weight ratio than rocket engines. EDIT: But you can download the realistic solar system mod to get a sense of what real world thrust ratios and orbital delta-v is like. And Children of a Dead Earth has multi-body physics for Lagrange points and so on.