This discussion is even more interesting in the context of natural sciences, since no scientific law is ever proven. What were the odds, in 1850, that Newton's

This discussion is even more interesting in the context of natural sciences, since no scientific law is ever proven. What were the odds, in 1850, that Newton's laws would be "disproved"? From Jaynes' The Logic of Science It depends entirely on this: Against which specific alternatives are we testing Newton's theory? For example, if you ask a scientist, "How well did the Zilch experiment support the Wilson theory?" you may get an answer like this: "Well, if you had asked me last week I would have said that it supports the Wilson theory very handsomely; Zilch's experimental points lie much closer to Wilson's predictions than to Watson's. But just yesterday I learned that this fellow Wolfson has a new theory based on more plausible assumptions, and his curve goes right through the experimental points. So now I'm afraid I have to say that the Zilch experiment pretty well demolishes the Wilson theory." I think that the first ~6 chapters of the book should be required reading for anyone in the natural sciences. An early drafts can be found here: http://www-biba.inrialpes.fr/Jaynes/prob.html http://www-biba.inrialpes.fr/Jaynes/prob.html