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False positives and false negatives are both really bad. Now if there’s an ICBM launched at Hawaii this weekend, no one will believe it.

JumpCrisscross 9y ago
> False positives and false negatives are both really bad Everything surrounding nuclear war is bad. Choosing the lesser of two evils is the best we can do, given the domain. > Now if there’s an ICBM launched at Hawaii this weekend, no one will believe it No one? My collection from friends in Hawaii is they’re more prepared. Each of them have at least contemplated a plan and a few assembled go bags. In any case, Japan and Korea’s experiences with false alarms don’t support your claim that a few false negatives outweigh a single false negative. To be clear, I’m not saying false positives are okay. No error is better than error. But if we’re going to have errors, and we are, one kind is better than the other.
- abstractbeliefs 9y ago
  > go bags where are they planning to go? It's a common mistake to make up "go bags" but forget they're only supposed to last you the 24 hours that it takes to get to a new refuge should your home/wherever else you're in become unsafe. I'm not sure how that works on Hawai'i after a nuclear missile attack, so I'd love to know what the plan is for such an event for these individuals.
  - klodolph 9y ago
    Plausible nuclear attack scenarios do not necessarily mean wiping the entire island off the map. Here is a fairly pessimistic scenario: http://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/?&kt=15000&lat=21.3069444&lng=-157.8583333&airburst=0&hob_ft=0&ff=68&zm=10 http://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/?&kt=15000&lat=21.3069444&... You can also choose "North Korean weapon tested in 2017" from the drop down menu, clear all effects, and click "Detonate". Also note the mountainous nature of Hawaiʻi.
  - JumpCrisscross 9y ago
    > where are they planning to go? Shelter, basement...depends on your situation. I’m in New York and don’t have a go bag. I did look up our nearest shelter, though, and thought about what I’d grab (water, cat, knife, extra glasses, bacitracin, band-aids, battery + cable, nuts, kibble, phone, flashlight, duct tape and masks).
    - abstractbeliefs 9y ago
      Right, and that's super reasonable! What a lot of people _do_ do however is make elaborate go bags but but then fail to prep their home, which is almost likely the best place to hunker down and stay.

JumpCrisscross 9y ago

> False positives and false negatives are both really bad Everything surrounding nuclear war is bad. Choosing the lesser of two evils is the best we can do, given the domain. > Now if there’s an ICBM launched at Hawaii this weekend, no one will believe it No one? My collection from friends in Hawaii is they’re more prepared. Each of them have at least contemplated a plan and a few assembled go bags. In any case, Japan and Korea’s experiences with false alarms don’t support your claim that a few false negatives outweigh a single false negative. To be clear, I’m not saying false positives are okay. No error is better than error. But if we’re going to have errors, and we are, one kind is better than the other.

abstractbeliefs 9y ago
> go bags where are they planning to go? It's a common mistake to make up "go bags" but forget they're only supposed to last you the 24 hours that it takes to get to a new refuge should your home/wherever else you're in become unsafe. I'm not sure how that works on Hawai'i after a nuclear missile attack, so I'd love to know what the plan is for such an event for these individuals.
- klodolph 9y ago
  Plausible nuclear attack scenarios do not necessarily mean wiping the entire island off the map. Here is a fairly pessimistic scenario: http://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/?&kt=15000&lat=21.3069444&lng=-157.8583333&airburst=0&hob_ft=0&ff=68&zm=10 http://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/?&kt=15000&lat=21.3069444&... You can also choose "North Korean weapon tested in 2017" from the drop down menu, clear all effects, and click "Detonate". Also note the mountainous nature of Hawaiʻi.
- JumpCrisscross 9y ago
  > where are they planning to go? Shelter, basement...depends on your situation. I’m in New York and don’t have a go bag. I did look up our nearest shelter, though, and thought about what I’d grab (water, cat, knife, extra glasses, bacitracin, band-aids, battery + cable, nuts, kibble, phone, flashlight, duct tape and masks).
  - abstractbeliefs 9y ago
    Right, and that's super reasonable! What a lot of people _do_ do however is make elaborate go bags but but then fail to prep their home, which is almost likely the best place to hunker down and stay.